Tom Tugendhat has become the third candidate to be eliminated from the Conservative leadership contest. The results are as follows:
Kemi Badenoch – 30 (up two)
James Cleverly – 39 (up 18)
Robert Jenrick – 31 (down 2)
Tom Tugendhat – 21 (down 1)
Having led on the first two rounds, Jenrick now finds himself a full 8 MPs behind Cleverly. Having been tipped by our members’ poll as conference’s big winner, it appears that Cleverly has not only absorbed the bulk of Mel Stride’s vote, but has taken supporters from rivals. Badenoch, up two, is now only one behind Jenrick, whose loss of two MPs can only be considered a bitter blow.
With another ballot tomorrow, the two major questions are: where will Tugendhat’s voters go, and who will be the candidate of the right? Badenoch and Jenrick are vying to be the latter. If Tugendhat’s supporters can be expected to move towards Cleverly – as the candidate of the centre, and the contender now with the momentum – who will win the battle for second place?
If it is Badenoch, our polling suggests she can beat Cleverly in the final two, albeit by a smaller margin than many once expected. If it is Jenrick, then, Cleverly looks set to win out, on our figures Accordingly, if MPs want to stop Cleverly from winning, backing Badenoch seems their best. And if they want to stop Badenoch, a vote for Jenrick beckons.
Throughout this contest, it has been clear that the right has the numbers to get one candidate into the final two. For it to manage two would require the bulk of the party’s MPs – One Nation, and unaligned – to swing behind another candidate nominally from that wing. Post-conference, they have moved behind Cleverly, who has gone from being tied for third to first place.
He is the man to beat. The man once damned as everyone’s second favourite now seems to be their first. Can Badenoch spoil his success?
