Ross Thomson is a former MP for Aberdeen South
Faithful Conservative Party members have been left reeling by the recent local elections in England. The losses our party suffered were catastrophic. We lost around half of the seats that we were defending, including the control of ten councils. Most brutally, we lost Andy Street as the Mayor of the West Midlands.
The results show that about a third of Tory voters, disillusioned with the current Conservatives, voted for Reform, with the most significant switch coming from those who had voted for Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019.
It is difficult to tell the full disruptive impact Reform would have at a general election given that they only stood candidates in one in six council wards. However, the Conservative vote fell the greatest in the seats where Reform UK stood a candidate. In those wards, our support fell by 19 points, compared to the 11 points in wards where Reform did not stand. Yet, despite the significant number of votes that Reform took from the Tories, they only managed to elect two councillors.
The biggest beneficiaries of Reform candidates standing were not Reform themselves, but Labour. It is therefore blindingly obvious that in standing candidates Reform has not helped the conservative cause, or helped elect those on the centre-right. It has instead split the right and ushered in Labour victories.
Reform support has swelled from disillusioned Conservative voters. Those who voted for Reform are conservatives who believe that the government is too big, taxes are too high, spending is out of control, and that immigration needs to be brought under control.
As valid as many of the grievances of disillusioned Tory voters are with the Government, and as tempting as Reform may be, the local election results prove beyond doubt that voting for them at an election later this year would be the worst mistake imaginable. Voting Reform would serve only as a spoiler, and hand the keys to Downing Street to Keir Starmer.
Reform cannot win the election. Richard Tice will never become Prime Minister. Rather, splitting the conservative vote by supporting Reform will only ensure Labour’s majority. Disturbingly, during a Times Radio interview talking about the West Midlands mayoralty results, Tice celebrated and explained how pleased he was at Street’s defeat. No matter how disaffected you feel with the Conservatives, on what planet, is it better for right-wingers to not just put the socialists in power, but to celebrate it?
If, like me, you are a conservative who believes in individual freedom, the rule of law, the free market, limited government, fiscal responsibility, protecting our children from discredited gender ideology, and ensuring strong national defences as the Government’s first obligation, then answer me this: how can you ever achieve any of those goals by putting Labour in power?
If you want to congratulate yourself on your ideological purity while the country goes to hell in a handcart, then on you go. But I hope you think it’s worth it when Labour hikes your taxes, interferes with how you raise your kids, allows immigration to be uncontrolled, and pushes their dangerous ideology on you. You can then survey, from your high horse, the damage done to Britain and say, “Don’t blame me, I voted for Reform”.
The same applies to those Tory voters who say, “I can’t vote for the Tories, I’m staying at home ”, and, in the process of abdicating their civic duty, hand their seat over to Labour, who you can be rest assured will stand against all the conservative values you hold. By sitting out the election, instead of getting a Tory Prime Minster, we will get a socialist. If you are a conservative, where on earth is the sense in allowing that to happen? The outcome is that you cede power to our opponents.
Ultimately, there are several lessons from the local elections for Conservatives. Firstly, the party must go into the election united. Does being united mean that I expect every Conservative MP to agree on everything? Of course not. Do you agree with your partner 100 per cent of the time? You can’t always agree on everything. Politics, like relationships, is the same.
When I served in the Commons, I found that many colleagues would apply a litmus test before deciding to work with other Conservative MPs – are they pro-Brexit enough? – and were driven by finding the areas of disagreement. MPs would better serve us by finding common ground and agreeing on a core set of conservative values and principles. United around those values the party must go forward, together and be determined to put those values into action.
Secondly, the Conservatives must offer an inspiring conservative vision for the future. There should be a vision, rooted in conservative values, that transcends the immediate challenges and offer a compelling picture of a nation brimming with hope, opportunity, and aspiration.
Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan both set an example of visionary leadership. In 1976, at the Republican Convention, Reagan said that the party should have a platform “that is a banner of bold, unmistakable colours, with no pastel shades”. Both Reagan and Thatcher achieved extraordinary electoral success because they offered a bold vision, optimism, and decisiveness. They made their visions into reality.
Going into the next general election the Conservatives must wave a banner of unmistakeably bold colours and conservative principles. We must give the voters a real choice to make. How often have we heard people say, “There’s nothing different between the parties, they’re all as bad as each other”? When the voters are offered a real choice, boldness wins every time.
There is still time for the Tories to articulate an ambitious vision for Britain that will motivate our supporters, pull them back from the temptation of Reform, and reignite enthusiasm among voters. The good news is that we do not need to go back to the drawing board: the blueprint is already there. Thatcher showed us how to win and win well.
She demonstrated that there are conservative solutions to the challenges that we face and that conservative values can change the world for the better. She proved that conservative policies can be inspirational, aspirational, and transformational. Conservative principles are timeless. They aren’t locked in the 1980s. Although we face different challenges today, we can still apply the same principles that saw such enormous Conservative success.
As they were then, conservative principles are now, the route to restoring British greatness and prosperity. Things are undeniably difficult for the Conservatives, but as Thatcher said, “You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it.”
