As No.10 Tears Itself Apart, Are Labour Being Eaten By The Greens?

Downing Street found itself in a crisis completely of its own making this week.

But the senior cabinet member swiftly slapped down such accusations, claimed Downing Street was trying to “kneecap” him and compared the allegations to conspiracy theories, insisting: “I didn’t kill JFK!”

Even Labour advisers outside of Downing Street were bewildered by No.10′s decision to “shoot themselves in the foot”.

But, as Starmer’s team now rushes to do damage control and apologise to Streeting, it’s hard not to conclude No.10 is fiddling while Rome burns.

Labour has fallen into fourth place in recent polls, according to Find Out Now, which just put the party on a meagre 15% in a survey published on Thursday.

With Reform UK holding onto their lead with 33%, and the Tories consistently in third place on 16%, it is the Green Party which appears to have ousted Labour from being in second place, creeping forward with 17%.

It’s a similar picture among young people, too, who have been flocking to the Greens.

A Savanta poll for ITV News and ITV’s Peston programme released this week found young people are abandoning Starmer’s Labour en masse while support for the Greens is climbing.

The proportion of young voters (18 to 25-year-olds) who said they would back the governing party dropped from 43% in March to 25% in November.

Young adults’ support for the Greens has surged in that time, up from 16% in March to 32% in November.

As one Green Party source put it, their recent successes felt “unbelievable” and a little “ridiculous”.

But Savanta’s political research director Chris Hopkins told HuffPost UK that this decline in support from young people is not unexpected.

He said: “Labour’s fall in support among young people is not surprising given their drop in support across all age groups since their historic general election victory last year.

“Then, Labour led every party among all age cohorts besides over 65s, but now Labour will struggle to command a lead among any, including their once-reliable base of support among young people.”

Hopkins continued: “While other age groups are perhaps more likely to turn to Reform, among younger adults it seems to be the Greens that benefit.

“This support for the Greens is far more pronounced among young women, and the younger ages in our cohort (18-21 vs 22-25), but does perhaps point to the issue Labour now face: they are bleeding voters of all ages to all sides, and a strategy to win them all back is an impossible needle to thread.”

So how have the Greens managed to capitalise on Labour’s woes?

Ironically, new party leader Zack Polanski seems to have stepped into a role previously linked to now-independent MP Jeremy Corbyn, who brought much of the younger generation into the Labour fold eight years ago.

“Oh, Jeremy Corbyn” was the political chant which rang out in rooms full of young people when the former Labour leader was at the height of his powers.

Two general elections later, and it’s Polanski who is wooing the young generation, attending gigs and making waves on social media.

The Green leader and London Assembly member was only elected in September, but membership has skyrocketed in that time to a record 150,000 – more than both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.

Although Polanski is yet to find his own earworm chant – he did get “tax the rich” going at a Rizzle Kicks gig this week – there’s no doubt he is rapidly becoming the new darling of the left with his eco-populist approach.

The leader told HuffPost UK: “There is growing excitement and enthusiasm among younger people about what the Greens are offering, real hope and change on the issues that matter most, from the cost of living, housing to the NHS.

“This Labour government offered change, but has failed to offer any hope or any change and rather than stand up to the wealthy 1%, is only seeking to serve their interests.”

Perhaps Polanski’s success is not too surprising, considering Starmer’s net favourability has dropped to -51 in October – the lowest rating recorded by YouGov so far.

While both the Tories’ Kemi Badenoch and Reform’s Nigel Farage sit at -33, the Lib Dems’ Ed Davey is currently at -4 – the same as Polanski.

Crucially though, Davey has been in his post for four years. Polanski’s been there for two months.

“I think we all knew Zack would be great but I don’t think anyone thought it would be like this,” one Green source told HuffPost UK.

HuffPost UK also understands the new leader has been touring the country meeting and engaging with young people as the party tries to build up a large youth membership.

The Greens are trying to get ahead of any negative reaction to Labour’s looming Budget on November 26, too, with their consistent support for a wealth tax – something the government has repeatedly ruled out.

An insider said the party is now looking forwards to how this success will translate into votes in the local and mayoral elections come May.

They added: “I think Zack wants MP defections.”

But the source admitted that is quite unlikely to happen any time soon.

Speculation of Starmer could be ousted from Downing Street is on the rise, meaning soft left Labour MPs might be hoping a new, more left-wing prime minister to replace him.

Still, insiders also optimistically speculate that the Greens’ success is already influencing Labour’s decisions, especially as the party has “a clear vision” – unlike the government.

The failure of another potential rival on the left to launch will also be helping to accelerate the Greens’ sudden rise.

After more than five years in the backbench shadows, Corbyn’s new venture, Your Party, is struggling to launch.

Beset with plenty of in-fighting and yet to set up many solid internal structures, even having a row over membership payments, the Labour days of “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn” seem a long way away.

One Green insider said: “Starmer is horrifically unpopular in the country, and no-one in his party actually supports him because he doesn’t actually have aims or ideas, he just promised he could win.”

But just how worried should Labour be? After all, Corbyn’s popularity with the young never got him into Downing Street.

“The Greens are not going to win an election,” a party source conceded. “But we can drag Labour into a better position on issues we care about. That’s part of the goal in itself.”