“Desperate” was the first text I received, from a Shadow Cabinet member, on the news of Nigel Farage’s resignation and his subsequent by-election announcement. It is a fairly accurate portrayal of the state of affairs. Realising he is up to his neck in controversy, Farage is attempting to jump the gun – to fight a by-election on his own terms before he is found guilty of misconduct. “Cowardly,” another MP tells me. “He’s jumped before being pushed.” I couldn’t think of a more accurate description.
The sequence of events matters here. On Monday evening, having landed flown back from the United States, Farage was doorstepped by Sky News and asked about the gifts received from George Cottrell. There will be “serious consequences,” he told the reporter, with an air of combativeness about him. As if, no matter what challenge was thrown at him, he would fight on, taking down any establishment force that dared stand in his way. Less than 24 hours later, he addressed the nation and announced he would step down as MP for Clacton and fight a by-election. A sort of ‘come and get me if you dare’ with two fingers put up to the establishment.
The decision follows a flurry of financial controversies surrounding Reform UK’s leader that have been building for weeks. It began with a £5 million gift, followed by hundreds of thousands of pounds paid to him as a Gold ambassador. Then came a string of undeclared properties, and it was all topped off with funding from a convicted criminal.
It is the perfect concoction to bring down any would-be prime minister. And rather than facing his impending political doom like a reputable politician, Farage is putting up a fight. He is “throwing a tantrum like a toddler” one senior MP tells me – doing nothing more than making a song and dance out of the British electoral system.
It should be noted here that calling an election like this is, on the face of it, genuinely risky. Assuming the major parties choose to fight it (which there was a chance of originally), there was a world in which he could have lost his seat. In a four-way contest between the Tories, Reform, Restore and Labour, it was never clear who would come out on top. One Shadow Cabinet member was initially rather eager to fight. The Tories should “go for it. Big time” they told me.
But Kemi Badenoch and the other party leaders have blunted Farage’s attack. “Nigel Farage is having a hissy fit,” Badenoch said, before adding “we will be standing a candidate in the real by-election” – dismissing the one Farage has forced as nothing more than a “gimmick.” Following this announcement, the willingness to fight quickly disappeared from Tory MPs, as they fell into line with Badenoch. One senior MP texted me that “it is a stunt and all a bit pointless,” adding that the party should “ignore it and have nothing to do with it.”
Badenoch’s move is a move that makes sense. The by-election has been called on Farage’s terms, and Reform intends to bankroll it (perhaps with a spare £5 million they have lying around?). To engage would be to walk into a trap which Badenoch and other party leaders have rightly recognised. Farage will win the by-election when it is fought on his own terms, and if he does, he will use it to send a clear message to the supposed establishment which he proclaims to be distanced from: ‘You can’t stop me.’
So they have made the correct choice in standing down. Let Farage have his vanity project by-election. Let him be the only serious candidate in Clacton. Strip him of the electoral oxygen that would give any win real credibility. Then, when he faces a recall by-election later in the year, throw everything at it. Many Tory MPs are hopeful about that scenario – a split four-way vote could let the Conservatives in on roughly 27 per cent.
We are, as another MP put it, at the “foothills of seeing just how dodgy Farage really is.” As he tries to focus public attention on a by-election, the question of his finances is not going away. It is a textbook Lynton Crosby ‘dead cat‘ strategy. Make people focus on something so significant they forget everything else.
But Farage has neglected a crucial fact. The British public are not stupid. They see straight through the gimmick and see exactly what this by-election is. They see it as a means of distracting from his failures and diverting attention away from his dodgy dealings. They know that something is rotten in the turquoise state of Reform.
Each month, Farage becomes a greater liability for his own party. Gone are the days when he could be wheeled out in front of a crowd and watch Reform’s polling skyrocket. He is a marmite politician now. Those who love him will stay loyal no matter how many scandals he is embroiled in. But there is a wider group of voters – the ones who um and ah about Reform – who will be deterred by this episode. Who will, when it comes to deciding where to put their X on the ballot paper, retreat to the safety of another party rather than risk it with Reform.
These people – the ‘maybe I’ll vote Reform voters’ – it is fair to say, are angry and frustrated. But now, they look at Westminster and see Farage playing the same game as everyone else. It undoes, in a single stunt, the outsider image he has spent years building. He has been consumed by the establishment.
A fate worse than death, some may say.
Joking aside, however, Farage will win this farcical by-election. That was never really in doubt. What it will not do is absolve him of the questions still hanging over him. As I argued in my ToryDiary on Monday, the party’s task now is not to get distracted, nor is it to get complacent. We must keep hammering home the one message that matters. Nigel Farage is on the ropes, and the by-election he has called is the tantrum, not the answer. There is one clear path forward:
Keep hitting him hard.
