John O’Dowd’s “ghost budget” is waiting for a fiscal rescue that isn’t coming…

When is a budget not a budget? Answer when it’s a ghost budget. That’s the term the SDLP opposition leader Matthew O’Toole used yesterday to describe a few pages of rushed homework the Finance Minister John O’Dowd is choosing to call a budget.

This downright weird exercise in PR comes before any of his Executive colleagues had a chance to look at how he proposes to deal with their collective bids. So, in effect O’Dowd is breaking collective responsibility in going public before talking to them.

And that’s before you get to have a look at what’s inside this ghost. There’s a massive “black hole” between what departments need and what they’ve actually been given. Even though Health gets the biggest slice of the pie, it’s still facing a £189 million shortfall. This isn’t just a number on a page; it means red-flag surgeries are at risk and waiting lists could get even worse.

Other areas are feeling the squeeze too. There isn’t enough cash to fix the crumbling sewage system, which is literally stopping new houses from being built. Schools are struggling to keep up with costs, and while there’s some money for pay rises, it’s not enough to fully settle the ongoing rows over public sector pay.

Every department is being asked to do more with less, leaving huge holes in everything from hospital care to affordable housing. A sceptic might observe that the £1b set aside for the A5 is unlikely to be spent give the department of infrastructure’s appeal is very unlikely to succeed so that ghost money is likely to be recirculated well with the three year budgetary term.

And a cynic might further suggest that O’Dowd is only putting that measure into the shop window whilst knowing it is likely to fail to take the credit for trying to(and failing over 19 years) to get this vital piece of north south infrastructure built.

Worst of all there are no plans (like Scotland and Wales have done already) to raise serious revenues to help fund vital public services. The proposed marginal increases in the regional rates are a splash in the ocean. O’Dowd’s own party insist on tying his hands behind his back and ruling water rates out which would take a huge burden off the public borrowing ledger.

O’Dowd offers a “mendicant” approach that abdicates leadership by framing Northern Ireland as a perpetual victim of external funding. A serious administration would quit begging and get on with revenue-raising measures and radical structural reforms. Relying on “austerity” excuses while avoiding tough domestic choices isn’t governing—it’s managed stagnation by proxy.

Now it is true that the measures suggested by the UK government won’t fill any immediate gap, but they do suggest a direction of travel, aligned with measures common in the rest of the UK, that would eventually take Stormont out of the deep fiscal hole it has dug itself into:

• Introducing Charges for Universal Services: This includes ending free prescriptions, reintroducing hospital parking charges, and implementing domestic water and sewerage charges—services that are currently funded entirely through the block grant.

• Hiking Education & Rating Fees: The Treasury has pushed for increasing university tuition fees to align with English levels and removing various “rating allowances,” such as the early payment discount on rates and the maximum capital value cap on high-end homes.

• Fiscal “Transformation” Conditions: The UK government has tied a portion of funding to a Public Sector Transformation Board, insisting that further debt write-offs are conditional on Stormont proving it can raise at least £113 million in locally generated income.

Sinn Féin, which in the south casts itself as a party of the left is acting as though it were a party of fiscal conservatives in Northern Ireland. As Professor Peter Shirlow pointed out on UTV last night, Northern Ireland is no longer an island of poverty in the UK. It has quite prosperous citizens many of whom would pay more if they thought it would genuinely fix public services.

Ultimately, this budget is a performance of paralysis. By prioritising populist optics over fiscal responsibility, the Finance Minister seeks to preserve a “free” at the point of use system that is actually failing everyone. Without the courage to tax the prosperous or reform the broken, this isn’t governing; it’s merely waiting for a rescue that isn’t coming.

Mick is founding editor of Slugger. He has written papers on the impacts of the Internet on politics and the wider media and is a regular guest and speaking events across Ireland, the UK and Europe. Twitter: @MickFealty