Weekly Bulletin…

October 27, 2024

4

Political, policy and regulatory developments impacting Northern Ireland

What you need to know this week

Northern Ireland General Election survey results published

Data from the newly published 2024 Northern Ireland General Election Survey shows that the TUV was the main beneficiary from a decrease in the DUP’s vote in the July general election. According to the Irish News, the DUP saw its vote share drop by 8.5 percentage points, with only 17% of those who voted for the DUP in the 2019 election doing so this time around. Instead, 13.9% voted for the TUV. However, the data indicated that Sinn Féin voters remained loyal to the party from the previous election to the most recent. Alliance gained 7.5% of Ulster Unionist votes, 4.6% of SDLP votes and 3.3% of DUP votes. The research also revealed that anti-immigration sentiment is growing in NI, with 56.6% of respondents disagreeing that immigration had made a positive contribution to NI’s economy and society, compared to 21.1% of respondents who agreed that they had.

What Next: The 2024 Northern Ireland General Election survey was conducted in July and August 2024, among a representative sample of 2034 participants. The margin of error is 3.1+/-.

Sparks fly as Stormont Committee question First Minister

On Wednesday (23 October), First Minister Michelle O’Neill MLA appeared before the Assembly’s Committee for The Executive Office to answer questions. Ms O’Neill, citing legal advice, declined to answer questions relating to the recent child safeguarding related controversies surrounding former Senator Niall Ó Donnghaile, and Sinn Féin press officer Michael McMonagle. She said she had been “open” and “transparent” on these matters and was “representing the Executive Office in [her] capacity as First Minister”. There followed angry exchanges between committee members as they disputed whether questions posed to the First Minister were within its legal remit, BBC NI reported. The First Minister said “party political issues are not for this committee”. Committee members expressed frustration at her response, TUV member Timothy Gaston MLA having earlier raised concerns about the fact that teh First Minister had met privately with the Committee Chair, Alliance’s Paula Bradshaw MLA, prior to the meeting. The DUP’s Brian Kingston MLA said “the failure to answer any questions speaks volumes about Sinn Fein’s commitment to the truth”, while the SDLP’s Sinéad McLaughlin MLA said “what took place today was a disgraceful shutting down of scrutiny”.

What Next: On the child safeguarding issue raised during the committe session, the First Minister said that she will take the matter back to the Executive and seek to find a cross-party approach at how it is dealt with. This follows her correction of the record at the Assembly, on Tuesday, regarding the age of a teenage boy who had received inappropriate texts from Niall Ó Donnghaile. She had previously stated that the boy was 17 at the time but the young person said he was 16.

Infrastructure Committee briefed on NI Water capacity constraints

On Wednesday (23 October), the Committee for Infrastructure were briefed by Mark Spence, CEO of the Construction

Employers Federation (CEF), Martin Mallon, Chair of CEF’s Housing Committee, Ciaran Fox, Director of the Royal Society of Ulster Architects (RSUA), on the impact of NI Water capacity constraints on the construction sector. Mr Spence noted that water capacity constraints are having a significant impact on home building completion, referencing a CEF study of homebuilders from earlier this year which highlighted that the current waste water capacity constraints are holding back 8,500 homes equating to £1 billion investment. Calling for the sustainably funding of Northern Ireland’s water and wastewater system to be treated as a standalone tenth priority within the draft Programme for Government, Mr Spence said that the Executive’s investment strategy fails to outline a “sustainable, realistic path towards delivering the huge uplift in investment in the Northern Ireland economy that we need” without addressing the NI Water issue. He added that “the £26 billion in capital funding planned to be spent on infrastructure over the next 10 years, as proposed within the Executive’s investment strategy, is woefully inadequate and neither ambitious nor strategic when considered in real terms”.

What Next: Mr Spence issued a stark warning to the Committee regarding the knock on effect this underfunding could have on the wider economic landscape in NI, preventing not only home development but deterring business investment and development etc.

NI Executive: “The First Minister and deputy First Minister met @ChiefConPSNI yesterday to discuss the serious issue

of ending violence against women and girls and the need to work collaboratively across both government and society in order to tackle all forms of violence.”

Northern Ireland Secretary of State Hilary Benn MP (Labour, Leeds South): “It’s been a busy day [Thursday] in Dublin speaking about the importance of UK-IE co-operation at @BrIreCham with @SimonHarrisTD, and discussing the repeal and replacement of the Legacy Act with @HMcEntee and @OireachtasNews GFA Joint Committee.”

Chair of NI Assembly Infrastructure Committee Deborah Erskine MLA (DUP, Fermanagh and South Tyrone): [On Monday 14 October] “Big day for public transport in Northern Ireland, arrival of Bus & Rail services at Belfast Grand Central is a real game changer as we travel together on journey to net zero.”

Sinéad McLaughlin MLA (SDLP, Foyle): “Delighted to be involved in the conversation about the political and policy reforms required for net zero. We have no time to waste when it comes to meeting our net zero by 2050 target. #RNISmartEnergy”

Stephen Farry Former deputy leader of the Alliance Party and MP for North Down: [On the fiscal rules contained within UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ forthcoming Budget] “This is a big deal. @JodieCarson19 & I have been looking at the UK fiscal rules for some time. There should be a major boost for capital spending in NI. We need a big conversation on how best to utilise locally via Investment Strategy & ensure transformative impact eg on climate.”

8 in 10 households would make energy efficiency changes to their home

A new survey by Co-Ownership has revealed that 8 in 10 would like to invest in energy efficiency upgrades, reports The News Letter. However, just 41% are motivated by a desire to reduce their impact on climate change. Almost all (96%) are motivated by saving on their energy bills, 63% by increasing their property’s value, and 54% by enhancing their health and wellbeing. The survey also revealed that 84% of homeowners wanted support with the costs of making improvements and with understanding and navigating the grants available. Co-Ownership, Northern Ireland’s only shared ownership provider, has allocated £40,000 to pilot grants programme, designed to support customers to understand the improvement options that may be available to them, and also provide financial assistance.

Communities Minister updates committee on Housing Supply Strategy

On Thursday (24 October), the Committee for Communities was briefed by the Minister for Communities Gordon Lyons MLA and several of his departmental officials. The Minister advised members said that he had bid for an additional £50 million of capital funding which, on on top of the Department’s existing capital budget, would be enough to build 2000 homes this year. Commenting on the Housing Supply Strategy he said it is expected to be with the Executive next month, after which he expects it will take some time to develop an Action Plan, particularly around planning and wastewater capacity. When it comes to increasing social housing supply the Minister said the most important thing was “revitalisation of the Housing Executive and clarification of its powers”. He later added that the Department’s view was that major reform was not required to enable the Housing Executive to be granted borrowing powers to develop social housing on a large scale, but rather that Treasury confirmation that it is allowed to do so is needed.

UK/EU Committee on the Implementation of the Windsor Framework meets

The Specialised Committee on the Implementation of the Windsor Framework met on Monday (21 October), co-chaired by officials from the UK Government and the European Commission. The co-chairs took stock of the implementation of the Windsor Framework since the last meeting in July 2024. They welcomed the operationalisation of tariff rate quotas for certain agricultural products. They discussed the intensive work underway in the areas of agrifood, customs, medicines and trade. They underlined the importance of progressing concrete actions to ensure the full operation of the safeguards and flexibilities of the Windsor Framework for the benefit of people and businesses in Northern Ireland. The Committee reiterated the importance of continued joint engagement with Northern Ireland stakeholders.

Research reveals supporters of the union are now a minority

Data from the 2024 Northern Ireland General Election Survey shows that the share of voters who support Northern Ireland remaining in the UK has fallen below 50% for the first time. Figures published by the Irish News show support for the union at 48.6% and support for Irish unity at 33.7%. Support for the union has dropped by 10.5 points since 2015, when 59.1% said they believed Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK. In terms of constitutional preference by party voted for in July’s election, 68.1% of Alliance supporters are in favour of remaining in the UK, compared to 31.2% who back Irish unity.

SONI announces director appointments in major transformation milestone

The Systems Operator of Northern Ireland (SONI) has announced the appointment of four new director posts. The new appointments form part of a new organisational structure designed to implement changes made to SONI’s licence by the Utility Regulator. The new directors are: Emma Morris, director of operations, Gerard Carlin, director of networks and innovation, Kevin O’Neill, director of strategy and regulation, and Frank O’Connor, director of finance.

SIB appoints new Chief Executive

The Strategic Investment Board (SIB) has announced the appointment of Steve Harper as its new Chief Executive. He will take up the role in January 2025. Currently Executive Director of International Business and Skills at Invest Northern Ireland, Steve replaces SIB’s outgoing Chief Executive, Brett Hannam, who is retiring after almost 20 years with the organisation.

Queen’s University to cut jobs amid £11m deficit

Queen’s University Belfast (QUB) is set to cut up to 270 jobs, more than 5% of its workforce, according to documents seen by BBC News NI. The documents also show that the university is facing a deficit of more than £11m in 2024-25. QUB is planning to cut jobs through a voluntary redundancy scheme. Both the University and College Union (UCU) and Northern Ireland Public Service Alliance (Nipsa) trade unions have raised concerns about the process, saying the university failed to consult them properly over the redundancy plans. The UCU’s Northern Ireland official, Katharine Clarke, said that the university had failed to supply the information required by law to allow union to engage in statutory consultation.

Former MEP to switch constituency and run as Dublin Central candidate

Former Independent 4 Change MEP Clare Daly has announced she will be running as a candidate in the upcoming general election in Dublin Central, the Irish Times reports. Ms Daly has been criticised for her stance on Russia, voting against calls for the establishment of a tribunal to prosecute Russia’s leadership for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Prior to becoming an MEP, Ms Daly was elected as a TD for Dublin Fingal (previously Dublin North) in the 2011 and 2016 general elections. However, her former constituency has been split in two by recent boundary changes, and Cllr Dean Mulligan running in Fingal East under the Independents 4 Change banner. In Dublin Central, she will compete with Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald TD and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe TD, as well as sitting Green and Social Democrat TDs. Last week, it was reported that prominent gangland criminal Gerry “the Monk” Hutch is also considered running in the constituency.

Parties draw red lines over Help-to-Buy and First Home Schemes

Taoiseach Simon Harris TD said his party will not go into government with anyone who wants to scrap the Help-to-Buy and First Home Schemes, The Journal reports. Speaking in the Dáil on Tuesday, Harris said “If I’m to be in the next government, the Help-to-Buy scheme is staying, it’s absolutely staying.” Fianna Fáil Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien TD gave a similar message to reporters on Wednesday, saying he “could not see a situation” where his party would agree to a housing plan without “significant support for first time buyers”, like the existing schemes. Meanwhile, opposition parties have spent the week attacking the Government’s housing policy. During leader’s questions on Tuesday, Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns TD asked the Taoiseach “do you accept the Government policy is driving record house prices?” Later that day, Sinn Féin’s Eoin Ó Broin TD brought a motion on affordable housing, where he said the policies had put home ownership “out of reach.”

British-Irish traders ‘buried in bureaucracy after Brexit’

A significant fall in the number of Irish small and medium-sized companies trading with Britain is “a depressing commentary” on the effects of the United Kingdom quitting the European Union, a British minister has said. Speaking at the British-Irish Chamber of Commerce on Thursday, Minister of State at the Department for Business and Trade Douglas Alexander said the recent findings from the Strategic Banking Corporation of Ireland (SBCI) survey

represent a “challenge and a responsibility”. Mr Alexander told the Irish Times that British business were “buried in bureaucracy after Brexit”. Meanwhile, NI Minister for the Economy Conor Murphy told the conference that the Windsor Framework is already benefiting Northern Ireland, even if large investments have not yet been announced.

Alex Kane: Unionists should welcome border poll criteria

Writing in the Irish News Alex Kane reflects on the implications of the 2024 Northern Ireland General Election Survey published this week. Kane suggests that both the pro-Union lobby and the Irish unity lobby will be happy with the survey’s results. The pro-Union lobby, he argues, will be satisfied with the 48.6% support garnered, despite it representing a dip of almost 5% since the 2019 survey. The Irish unity lobby on the other hand, standing at 33.7%, he contends will also be happy given that for the first time ever, pro-union support doesn’t represent an overall majority.

Kane also suggests that the ‘Don’t Know’ demographic when it comes to the constitutional question, which stands

at 14%, seems to be building around Alliance. Highlighting that this demographic could be hugely beneficial to the pro- Union lobby, he poses that it might be helpful if “some elements of unionism and loyalism stopped banging on about Alliance being SF-lite”. Further musing on the mechanics of calling a border poll, Kane suggests that the British and Irish governments will “set in legislative stone the precise terms and conditions for both the calling and management of a border poll”. He urges the pro-Union lobby not to be put off by such a scenario arguing that Unionism has a “long and unhappy history of being surprised by British governments” and thus leaving such a decision to some undefined moment when a secretary of state thinks it ‘likely’ the unity side would win the poll is, to put it frankly, utterly, utterly barking”.

Saturday 26 October 2024

Halloween Recess – Assembly in recess until 3 November

Tuesday 29 October 2024

Invest NI Cluster Accelerator Conference, Dunadry Hotel, Templepatrick

Wednesday 30 October 2024

Chancellor Rt Hon Rachel Reeves MP will deliver the UK Government’s Autumn Budget

Monday 4 November 2024

NI Executive Draft Programme for Government 2024 – 2027: Public consultation closes

Friday 9 November 2024

Green Party Northern Ireland Annual Convention, Clayton Hotel, Belfast

Wednesday 30 October 2024

Chancellor Rt Hon Rachel Reeves MP will deliver the UK Government’s Autumn Budget