As the 2024 Formula 1 season resumes with Max Verstappen holding a 78-point lead over Lando Norris, Sky Sports F1 assess the Brit’s chances of chasing down the world championship leader.
Verstappen looked to be cruising towards a fourth successive drivers’ title as he eased to wins in four of the first five races of the season, but Red Bull’s dominant streak has since come to an abrupt halt.
The Dutchman has won just three of the last nine grands prix and entered the sport’s summer break on a run of four races without victory, his longest winless streak since the 2020 season.
While Norris can be credited with sparking F1’s 2024 revolution by claiming his maiden F1 victory in Miami in May, the McLaren driver has been guilty of letting slip several subsequent opportunities to return to the top step of the podium.
A thrilling campaign for neutrals has seen seven different drivers – from four different teams – win during the opening 14 races, but the spread of victories has been a factor in preventing Norris from closing the gap to Verstappen.
With 10 races to go, starting with this weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix, there are several key elements to examine when considering Norris’ chances of pulling off a famous comeback.
Who has the faster car?
There is little doubt that since being kitted out with early-season upgrades, the McLaren has been the most consistent car on track in terms of pace.
The MCL38 has contended for victory, through either Norris or team-mate Oscar Piastri, at just about every circuit since Miami.
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Norris started on pole in Spain and Hungary and held genuine leads at the front of the field in Canada and Britain. He also was quicker than Verstappen in Austria before the pair collided when battling for the lead in the closing stages.
Red Bull attempted to hit back with a major set of upgrades in Hungary in the penultimate race before the break, but the new parts made little difference as Verstappen was left irate by his car’s lack of performance.
While there have been three weekends without F1, the enforced two-week shutdown that teams must adhere to during the summer break means there isn’t a huge amount of time to make advances with car development.
With that in mind, it would be fair to expect McLaren to have a slight pace advantage over Red Bull at most of the remaining circuits.
History on Verstappen’s side
As we saw throughout June and July, having the fastest car alone isn’t necessarily enough to guarantee race wins.
Verstappen battled to victories in Canada and Spain when the Red Bull wasn’t at its best, and will always provide a formidable challenge to Norris, or any other driver trying to beat him.
The other problem for Norris is that even if he does manage to overcome Verstappen on any given Sunday, the size of the gap between them in the standings means that beating the Dutchman into second place won’t be sufficient.
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The biggest comeback in the history of the Drivers’ Championship came in 2012 when Sebastian Vettel overturned a 39-point deficit with seven races remaining.
That puts in perspective the challenge facing Norris with 10 races remaining, although the Brit does have some extra points available from the three Sprint weekends to come.
Verstappen’s consistency is such that for Norris to close the gap, he will likely need some luck in the form of at least one, if not multiple DNFs for his rival.
The role of Piastri and Mercedes
Verstappen potentially has another layer of security provided by some quite unlikely sources.
Wins in the last four races were shared by Norris’ McLaren team-mate Piastri and Mercedes’ duo of George Russell and Verstappen’s old rival Lewis Hamilton.
In theory, having other fast cars in the mix could be helpful to Norris if they were to finish behind him and in front of Verstappen, but it wasn’t working out like that in the weeks before the summer break.
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Piastri finished ahead of Norris in the last two races, most notably when winning in Hungary after a team orders controversy in which McLaren made it clear they were not prioritising the Brit.
In contrast, Verstappen’s team-mate Sergio Perez has been absent from the battle at the front, but would no doubt be expected to follow team orders should he be in a position to offer support.
And as for Mercedes, only wins are going to be enough to enable Norris to close the gap on Verstappen, therefore the Silver Arrows taking them is not helpful.
Hamilton has rediscovered his magic touch with two victories in three races after a 56-race winless streak, while there appears to be confidence at Mercedes that more performance gains are to come.
Verstappen might lose some points to Piastri and the Mercedes drivers, but as long as they take points from Norris too, they’ll be doing the championship leader a favour.
Could Red Bull tensions boil over?
So with many elements in his favour, none more so than his talent, could things really go spectacularly wrong for Verstappen and Red Bull?
Before this year such a suggestion would have been quickly dismissed, but this has been a very strange campaign for the team and its star driver.
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Max Verstappen vented his frustrations over Red Bull’s team radio after he failed to secure the podium during the Hungarian Grand Prix
Allegations of inappropriate behaviour made against team principal Christian Horner by a female colleague, which have been dismissed following a Red Bull investigation and subsequent appeal process, triggered an apparent power struggle.
Verstappen’s father Jos publicly called for Horner to go, before rumours of a switch to Mercedes for the world champion began to swirl.
The 26-year-old coped remarkably well with all the noise in the early stages of the season but showed signs of tension as the performance of the RB20 tailed off in June and July.
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McLaren’s Lando Norris and Red Bull’s Max Verstappen engaged in an exhilarating battle for the race lead before the pair crashed into one another, as George Russell ended up capitalising to win the Austrian Grand Prix
Verstappen’s on-track judgement was called into question after he was penalised for causing the collision with Norris in Austria, with some onlookers reminded of his questionable tactics during his 2021 title battle with Hamilton.
Relations between driver and team were then called into question after the Hungarian Grand Prix as Verstappen raged over the radio during a disappointing race and then refused to apologise for his conduct afterwards.
While there is a lot of experience at Red Bull of closing out championships, there’s been a sense at times that this is a team on the edge of imploding.
Formula 1 returns after the summer break with the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort on August 23-25, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream every F1 race and more with a NOW Sports Month Membership – No contract, cancel anytime.
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