Results of the first ballot:
- Robert Jenrick – 28 MPs
- Kemi Badenoch – 22 MPs
- James Cleverly – 21 MPs
- Tom Tugendhat – 17 MPs
- Mel Stride – 16 MPs
- Priti Patel – 14 MPs
Priti Patel has become the first candidate eliminated in this year’s Conservative leadership contest. The former Home Secretary was two MPs behind Mel Stride in fifth, and three behind Tom Tugendhat in third. Whereas Tugendhat came third in our members’ survey, with MPs, he trails James Cleverly by four on this first ballot. Cleverly himself trails Kemi Badenoch by only a single vote.
This makes Robert Jenrick the victor on 28 MPs, six ahead of Badenoch. Although reflective of his lead on public nominations, this was, perhaps, a larger lead than many were expecting – especially with the Shadow Housing Secretary leading him by a margin of 16 per cent in our survey this morning, and beating him – alongside every other candidate – in a head-to-head with members.
With Cleverly so close behind her, the prospect of Badenoch failing to make the members’ ballot for a second time is not outlandish. Liz Truss trailed Penny Mordaunt on every ballot until the last one in 2022. Our survey suggests that, in that scenario, Jenrick would be the likely victor. Will a ‘Stop Badenoch’ campaign take off? Or will we have another leader who isn’t the first choice of MPs?
We will have to wait and see where Patel’s votes go, if anyone drops out, and how the next few ballots proceed. There will be another ballot next Tuesday, the 10th. If the lesser-placed candidates want any encouragement, Lee David Evans points out that every previous winner on the first ballot in Opposition has not gone on to win the contest.
