Of Childless Cat Ladies and other matters…

Following Trump’s disastrous debate performance, Taylor Swift released the following statement:

Like many of you, I watched the debate tonight. If you haven’t already, now is a great time to do your research on the issues at hand and the stances these candidates take on the topics that matter to you the most. As a voter, I make sure to watch and read everything I can about their proposed policies and plans for this country.

Recently I was made aware that AI of ‘me’ falsely endorsing Donald Trump’s presidential run was posted to his site. It really conjured up my fears around AI, and the dangers of spreading misinformation. It brought me to the conclusion that I need to be very transparent about my actual plans for this election as a voter. The simplest way to combat misinformation is with the truth.

I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I’m voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them. I think she is a steady-handed, gifted leader and I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos. I was so heartened and impressed by her selection of running mate @timwalz, who has been standing up for LGBTQ+ rights, IVF, and a woman’s right to her own body for decades.

I’ve done my research, and I’ve made my choice. Your research is all yours to do, and the choice is yours to make. I also want to say, especially to first time voters: Remember that in order to vote, you have to be registered! I also find it’s much easier to vote early. I’ll link where to register and find early voting dates and info in my story.

With love and hope,

Taylor Swift
Childless Cat Lady

I am not an expert on Taylor Swift’s lyric writing capabilities, but the above is a masterpiece of how to do a political endorsement briefly and well. She isn’t telling her 283 million followers how to vote, suggesting instead they do their own research. But she also leaves no one in any doubt as to where she stands, and at the time of writing the post had received over 11 million likes and there was reportedly a rush of 327 thousand people looking to register for the election the following day. You don’t mess with this childless cat lady, and the Trump campaign’s effort to appropriate her illicitly has backfired spectacularly.

But Trump’s debate performance had other, darker, consequences… there were multiple bomb threats in response to Trump’s claim that Haitian immigrants are eating the pets in Springfield Ohio – Vance’s home state.

Check out this You Tube video…

JD Vance admitted he had spread the story in response to “concerns expressed by a constituent that the town was being overwhelmed by immigrants” but CNN’s Dana Bash pushed back:

“First of all, the Clark County Sheriff and the Ohio Department of Natural Resources reviewed 11 months of 911 calls; they only identified two instances of people alleging Haitians were taking geese out of parks. They found zero evidence to substantiate those claims,” Bash explained.

Bash said the rest of his “alleged evidence” was “unsourced social media videos from a different city. Apparently no connection to Haitians.” She also noted that people had been paid to drum up so-called “proof.”

“Nobody is disputing that the town of Springfield, Ohio, needs help. But, you’re not just a bystander,” Bash said. “You’re the senator from Ohio, so instead of saying things that are wrong, and actually causing the hospitals, the schools, the government buildings to be evacuated because of bomb threats, because of the cats and dogs thing, why not actually be constructive, in helping to better integrate them into the community? Because there are a lot of employers there who say that the Haitians workers are helping fill jobs that they need desperately filled.”

Rather than take any ownership of his role in spreading false claims and incendiary rhetoric, Vance recoiled, saying that any suggestion that he’d been responsible for inciting the bomb threats in Springfield was “disgusting.” The Ohio senator scolded Bash for sounding like a “Democratic propagandist” as she called him out on his reckless lying.

“There is nothing that I have said that has led to threats against these hospitals. These hospitals, the bomb threats and so forth. It’s disgusting. The violence is disgusting. We condemn all violence,” Vance said, downplaying his obvious role in inciting the violence.

As noted by TheDownBallot newsletter, the facts in Springfield are somewhat different:

After shrinking dramatically over the last half-century, Springfield has worked hard to revitalize emptying neighborhoods by attracting new residents and workers. By all accounts, this civic revival is succeeding. Springfield’s population peaked at more than 80,000 in 1960 but then began a continuous decline, falling to under 60,000 in 2020. But that decline appears to be leveling off as the city experiences what the local newspaper called in 2022 a “resurgence.”

Newcomers from Haiti have played a critical role in this transformation, and their actual number is likely more in line with official estimates in the low five figures. But even these assessments may be too large: New data from the Census Bureau shows only a tiny increase in Springfield’s Haitian population, though it, too, has sources of error, and comes to us already a year out of date.

As Haitians in Springfield experience an outpouring of hatred fomented by the far right, it’s reasonable to ask why we might be concerned with precise population counts. Accurate data, however, is at the heart of responsive democratic governance. Cities, counties, states, and the federal government all need detailed information about their inhabitants if they’re to meet the needs of longtime residents and new arrivals alike.

Springfield makes up about half of Clark County and according to the US Census the population of Clark County has remained largely stable with a declining black component.

And the Haitian component is tiny:

But these lies have consequences: As noted by Heather Cox Richardson:

For the third day in a row, officials today had to evacuate two elementary schools in Springfield, Ohio, citing threats that have led to safety concerns. The city has also canceled “CultureFest,” its annual celebration of diversity, arts, and culture, and the local colleges are meeting virtually out of safety concerns. The Bureau of Motor Vehicles has had to close, as has the Ohio License Bureau.

Ohio’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine, said that there have been “at least 33” bomb threats against schools and public offices after Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his running mate, Ohio senator J.D. Vance, spread the lie that Haitian immigrants to Springfield have been eating the pets of their white neighbors. DeWine reiterated that the immigrants in Springfield are there legally, and noted that he has authorized troopers from the Ohio State Highway Patrol to provide additional security at the district’s 18 school buildings. 

No doubt the Trump campaign would like to shift the media focus to the second apparent attempt to assassinate the former President (by an apparent Trump voter concerned he was going to concede victory to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine), but these stories are not going to go away, and could become the pivotal moments in the campaign.

However, so far, there is hardly any polling evidence to suggest that they have had any impact on voter intentions whatsoever. You would have to squint very hard to detect any trend in the ongoing average of polls below taken from 538.com, beyond the fact that both candidates have trended slightly higher following the withdrawal of Robert Kennedy jnr. from the race.

Kamala Harris surged from Biden’s nadir in Mid-July of 40% support to 48% some weeks ago but has flat lined ever since. Trump has remained steady in the 43 to 45% range, and, if anything, has consolidated his support. Any bounce Harris might have achieved after a very successful Democratic National Convention in Chicago appears to have been countered by Robert Kennedy jnr.’s withdrawal from the race and endorsement of Trump.

There has, however been an ongoing rising trend in Kamala Harris’ personal popularity which has entered positive territory for the first time:

Trump, meanwhile, continues to languish in minus 10% territory:

Looking at the critical battleground states, the pictures has actually improved for Trump:

For all the fuss made by Trump about the 2020 results in Arizona and Georgia, Biden did not actually need to win those states to win the Electoral College. The “tipping point state” was actually Wisconsin. If Harris wins all the states Biden won except Arizona and Georgia, she still wins. But the one state she cannot afford to lose is Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral college votes. Lose that and she would have to win two of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina to compensate, and on these numbers that is a big ask.

I Wouldn’t attach too much significance to margins of less than 1% even in aggregates of hundreds of polls, but clearly Harris is down to the wire with leads of less than 1% in both Pennsylvania and Nevada, and there is no guarantee there couldn’t be an upset in Wisconsin or Michigan as well. For the Democrats, the big states of Florida and Texas seem tantalisingly out of reach.

For me, the abiding feature of this election cycle is the resilience of the Trump support base in the face of one campaigning disaster after another. All of his lies are being widely and publicly debunked and often turned into ridiculous on-line and video memes. His only strategy seems to be to double down on these lies, even though they are now more a source of ridicule than support. It appears that his support base couldn’t care less. Reality be damned. Reality is an elite conspiracy against them. The lies may appeal to the contrarian instincts of many. If you are agin’ the establishment, it doesn’t much matter what they say.

There is clearly a large market for votes from people who feel they have been demeaned or looked down upon by higher earners or the better qualified. But what I find truly extraordinary is that they have chosen Trump to be their champion. A more self-entitled, self-indulgent, and selfish privileged son of inherited wealth is hard to imagine. As Kamala Harris said in the debate when inviting viewers to attend a Trump rally: “he talks about fictional characters like Hannibal Lecter, he will talk about ‘windmills cause cancer.’ And what you will also notice is that people start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom. What he will not talk about is about YOU”.

And then Trump proceeded to talk about himself again…

I can also understand why billionaires, white racists, macho males, evangelical Christians, conservative Catholics, arch-Zionists, Islamophobes, xenophobes, and immigrants who want to shut the door behind them might feel that Trump is their bulwark against a liberal agenda at home, and hostile forces abroad. The wonder of it is that they couldn’t come up with a better candidate to represent and promote their values.

This is the sixth of a series of posts on the US elections following on from Hitler with Nukes? (July 21^st.), A Dead Bear Bounce for Kennedy? (Aug. 5^th.), The Tipping Point: Kamala Harris versus Donald Trump (Aug. 12^th.), Kamala Harris Surge? (Aug. 21^st.) and The Amazing thing that’s happening in the US Presidential Election (Sept. 3^rd.)

Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.