Annunziata Rees-Mogg is the Head of Communications for Popular Conservatism and a former MEP for the East Midlands, having stood for the Conservatives in the 2005 and 2010 general elections.
The Conservative Party’s MPs have whittled down the leadership candidates to the four who will be presented to the membership at Party Conference in just over a week’s time.
The two candidates perceived by MPs as most successful in the Birmingham beauty parade will then be offered to the party members to select the next Leader of His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition.
Since July, Popular Conservatism has been surveying Conservative Party members on their views of the leadership campaign, party reform, political values and policy.
Robert Jenrick has narrowly led the pack consistently in our responses, with Kemi Badenoch hot on his heels. In our latest survey conducted since the last elimination round by MPs, Jenrick attracted 38.3 percent support to Badenoch’s 34.9 percent with 14.4 percent still undecided. According to our respondents, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat have stagnated with just 6.8 percent and 5.6 percent respectively, although if both were in the final two, Cleverly would win by a clear margin of 5:3.
In a head-to-head between the front runners, the margin is much tighter. Although Jenrick still garners most support he is only 4.7 percent ahead of Badenoch, with 12.8 percent undecided between them. With MPs putting Jenrick and Badenoch top, and three-quarters of our respondents choosing Robert or Kemi as first choice, it would be a surprise if they did not make the final two put to members in October.
However, the Conservative Party often goes against expectations when selecting its leaders: Iain Duncan-Smith beat Ken Clarke, Cameron came from nowhere at Party Conference in 2005, everyone withdrew against Theresa May in 2016, Liz Truss prevailed in 2022 and Rishi Sunak was anointed. And with such a slim difference in support, even if their current top two make it to the final, Robert Jenrick’s lead is far from guaranteed.
The beauty parade could easily upset all expectations.
However, although the press’s attention is on the leadership campaigns, the resounding message from all our surveys is that the Tories need to do much more than just elect a new leader: our panel of over 500 members wants the party to democratise and move to the right. They want a Conservative Party that does what it says on the tin – a True Blue Tory party.
One message our panel is pushing loud and clear is that the membership needs to be involved in the reform of the party.
Not only do 66 percent want a vote on all nominated candidates – not just the final two the MPs put forward – in future leadership elections, but 60 percent want a vote on who is deputy leader as well. Just under three in four want members to elect the Party Chairman. And only 21 percent believe the next Chairman must be a current Parliamentarian, which it could be argued speaks to the suspicion many members feel about the motivations of those in Westminster.
Asking open questions is always a risk in any survey, the infamous case of Boaty McBoatface comes to mind, and our panellists did not disappoint.
Although when asked an open text unprompted question on who they thought would make a good Party Chairman, they refrained from nominating Tim the Tip Top Tory, or Fred Astaire for Chair – their top choice was – one Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Now Jacob is a great brother, with whom I often agree, but I am not sure I would wish upon him the enormous task of turning round the Conservative Party machine so that it can win against the current socialist incumbents. Perhaps ConservativeHome’s own Harry Phibbs is to blame having penned an article suggesting the idea. Completing our panel’s top five suggestions for Chairman were Dame Priti Patel, Lord Frost, Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt.
Interestingly, of their top ten choices, five are current Parliamentarians, and five are not. The appetite for the best person given our party’s post-election reduced form appears to trump being in the Palace of Westminster.
Despite the different wings of the party these preferences for Chairman represent, our panellists were resoundingly clear on the need for the next leader to move the party to the right.
With just shy of half of respondents describing the Conservative Party today as “left of centre”, it is no surprise that 90 percent believe it should move “somewhat or significantly” rightwards. And being a True Blue Conservative is the top reason given for preferring one leadership candidate over the rest, with Kemi Badenoch being seen as having this in her favour more than her opponents.
At Conservative Party Conference all the candidates will be doing their best to woo the support of the party members. The MPs whittling the contenders down to the last two will have their eyes on whose star is in the ascendency. The candidates will need to pull it out of the hat to impress a jaded and disillusioned membership.
Looking at the members we have surveyed, the four contenders can learn three simple lessons: involve the membership in electing key positions, reform the party structure, and return the party unambiguously to the right of centre.
When only 2.6 percent of supporters believe the party should stay “where it is” on the political spectrum and 89.6 percent thinking the Tories should move to the right, our respondents are sending a clear message for what the next leader and their chairman must do:
Go blue or go bust.
