Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, philanthropist, author, and pollster. For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the debate over the western response has prompted me, along with many others, to take a closer interest in the wider politics of the region. In that context, I wrote recently about Georgia and relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Another pressing issue is the need for NATO and European integration in the Western Balkans. North Macedonia, with its unique challenges and recent political shifts, offers valuable insights into the complexities faced by many nations in this region.
North Macedonia’s democracy and multiparty system were established in 1990 after decades of communist single-party rule. Following the elections in May 2024, the North Macedonian Parliament voted in a new conservative, centre-right government led by VMRO – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE). Conversely, the Social Democratic Alliance of Macedonia (SDSM), the legal successor of the former communist party, suffered its worst result in 34 years.
VMRO-DPMNE won 58 MP seats, while SDSM secured just 18. The country also elected its first female president, Professor Gordana Siljanovska Davkova, supported by VMRO-DPMNE. She defeated the incumbent left-wing President Stevo Pendarovski with 65 percent of the vote to his 29 percent.
The new Prime Minister, Hristijan Mickoski, a professor of engineering and robotics from Skopje, campaigned on improving the economy, stopping brain drain, and implementing strong anti-corruption measures.
North Macedonia faces significant economic challenges. Inflation in the past year reached 9.4 percent, double that of the EU, causing major financial problems for families and households. The fiscal budget deficit hit 5%, necessitating urgent stabilisation of public finances.
Moreover, many young people are leaving North Macedonia for Western countries, causing a workforce shortage and a growing imbalance between the working population and pensioners. This demographic shift poses a looming challenge for the country’s future.
North Macedonia joined NATO in 2020 after resolving a long-standing name dispute with Greece. The country changed its official name from “Republic of Macedonia” to “North Macedonia”, a move that was controversial domestically.
Despite overcoming the “name-change hurdle” with Greece, North Macedonia’s EU accession is now blocked by Bulgaria, which insists on constitutional changes to protect the Bulgarian minority in Macedonia. This dispute, rooted in historical, linguistic, and identity issues, is slowing North Macedonia’s European integration.
The last major EU enlargement occurred 20 years ago, admitting 10 countries from the Baltics, Central Europe, Malta, and Cyprus. A similar “big-bang” enlargement is not currently on the table, with no clear timeline for the next EU expansion. Enlargement fatigue remains prevalent in key EU capitals, compounded by the EU’s own challenges with inflation, energy, migration, and global competitiveness.
The Russian aggression against Ukraine since February 2022 has shifted the geopolitical landscape, bringing more strategic thinking to the West regarding EU and NATO enlargement, including in the Balkans. The free world is now engaged in a global geopolitical competition with Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and their allies, necessitating adjustments in defence, industrial base, energy independence, and supply chain consolidation.
For North Macedonia and the Balkans, this could mean an open door for EU accession. The longer the Western Balkans remain in geopolitical limbo without a clear timeline for EU membership, the greater the chance of malignant foreign influences in the region.
North Macedonia and its new government need to be responsible NATO members, committed to Euro-Atlantic values and integration. The country requires major free market economic reforms, with a focus on attracting foreign investment. As they work to achieve this, the EU and the broader West have a responsibility to deal with them fairly and with strategic clarity.
The integration of the Western Balkans, including North Macedonia, into the EU and NATO is not just a matter of regional stability but a strategic imperative for the West. As global geopolitical tensions rise, the importance of consolidating and aligning US, UK, and EU foreign and security policies becomes increasingly evident.
By bringing countries like North Macedonia into the fold, the West can strengthen its position in the face of growing challenges from revisionist powers: the likes of Russia and other autocratic states that are challenging the rules of international order.
The path forward may be complex, requiring patience, diplomacy, and a commitment to reform on all sides. However, the potential benefits – a more stable, prosperous, and strategically aligned South Eastern Europe – far outweigh the challenges.
As we navigate these turbulent times, the integration of North Macedonia and its Balkan neighbours should be viewed not as a burden, but as an investment in the shared security and prosperity of the Euro-Atlantic community.
