Can celebrity endorsements really swing the 2024 presidential election? – Politics.co.uk

According to the General Services Administration, a total of 405,999 people visited Vote.gov through the link on Swift’s Instagram story during the 24 hours it was live after she made the endorsement, surpassing the site’s early September daily average of 30,000 visitors.

However, it remains fundamentally unclear whether Swift or another other celebrity’s say-so will swing the election come polling day in November.

Celebrities supporting KAMALA Harris

Kamala Harris has become a magnet for the rich and famous, many of whom have rallied behind her since she officially joined the campaign in July. She has received endorsements from the likes of musician John Legend, actress Barbra Streisand, businessman Mark Cuban and actor George Clooney, among others.

Some celebrities have raised millions for her campaign too. In July, Jeff Bridges, Mark Hamill, Mark Ruffalo and more “White dude” celebrities raised $4 million on a “White Dudes for Harris” Zoom fundraising call.

At the Democratic National Convention in August, actress Kerry Washington and actor Tony Goldwyn held a surprise “Scandal” reunion on the Democratic National Convention stage, throwing their support behind Harris.

In addition, the Harris campaign has courted Hollywood starlights in hopes of driving voter turnout in key swing states.

In mid-September, Harris joined Oprah Winfrey for a star-studded virtual event marked by teary moments and celebrity interventions.

The “Unite for America” event drew thousands of views across social media and worked with activist group Win with Black Women, which aimed to register people to vote and bolster Harris in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan which are pivotal to winning the election.

Also, Harris’ campaign has embraced online culture trends and capitalised on celebrity endorsements to connect with young voters.

Most notably, British singer Charli XCX brought Harris into the Gen Z fold by tweeting “kamala IS brat.”

The endorsement was met by Harris’ team changing the background photo on her X account to the “brat” green colour and using the same font used on Charli XCX’s hit album released last summer.

However, Harris’ campaign has tried to downplay the role celebrities play in her campaign, telling reporters during the Democratic convention that “we’re not going to be a celebrity-driven campaign.”

In 2016, for instance, Hillary Clinton received endorsements from Beyoncé, Jay-Z, LeBron James, Kendall Jenner, George Clooney and dozens of others. She ultimately lost, with many perceiving her as out of touch with the average voter.

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Celebrities supporting Donald Trump

Trump is backed by a handful of well-known celebrities but the number pales in comparison to the number backing Harris’ bid for the White House.

Most notably, tech mogul Elon Musk endorsed the former president minutes after he was rushed off stage by Secret Service agents at a Pennsylvania rally shooting. Trump told Reuters last month that he would consider appointing Musk to a cabinet or advisory role “if he would do it.”

At the Republican National Convention in July, Trump gave speaking slots to a host of celebrities.

Former pro wrestler Hulk Hogan ripped off his shirt while on stage to reveal a Trump-Vance campaign shirt underneath, and called Trump his “hero” and the “greatest president of the United States.”

Also, rapper Kid Rock and model Amber Rose spoke at the convention. Dana White, CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, introduced former President Trump at the Republican National Convention, a role typically reserved for a spouse or family member.

Other notable celebrities who back Trump include Ye, the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, rapper Lil Wayne, firebrand actress Rosanne Barr and rapper Azealia Banks appeared at a rally in Florida this summer.

Trump has frequently tried to use people with celebrity status to appeal to specific voter blocs. He has used rappers to court Black voters, particularly younger Black men who have shifted toward Trump since 2020.

At a rally in Pennsylvania earlier this year, Trump announced the support of the Puerto Rican reggaeton star Anuel AA, who encouraged Puerto Ricans to “vote for Trump.”

Do endorsements change the results?

Researchers have long tried to measure how and if celebrity endorsements matter. But the impact remains unclear.

For instance, after Oprah Winfrey endorsed then-Senator Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary, researchers analysed Oprah Magazine subscription data, book sales and election results to see if Obama performed better than expected in places where people subscribed to the magazine or where books recommended by Oprah’s Book Club sold well.

The study found that he did perform better, and concluded her endorsement resulted in an additional one million votes out of more than 30 million votes cast.

But that survey only tells so much. It was a primary contest — not a general election.

Other researchers at Miami University in Ohio and California State Long Beach found that celebrity endorsements are more likely to matter in primary elections when voters must choose between two or more relatively similar candidates.

In these situations where candidates have similar policy positions and when voters typically do not have a strong view one way or another, the voice of a trusted celebrity can play an important role, the research found.

In general elections, however, studies find that partisanship is what drives voters’ choices and the political attitudes often formed early in life are unlikely to be changed by a celebrity endorsement.

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What do endorsements mean for 2024?

There’s no doubt that Taylor Swift and other celebrities have swayed their legions of fans by encouraging them to register to vote and raising awareness on issues. But, in Swift’s case, analysing just the number of visits to Vote.gov through the link on her Instagram story isn’t particularly useful.

That number alone doesn’t tell whether the visitors were new voters, whether those visits translated into actual registrations, if those visitors were eligible to vote or what any new voters would do on election day.

The reality is that it’s impossible to know exactly how much of a difference, if any, Swift’s endorsement will make. Experts caution that it is exceedingly difficult to ever pinpoint what makes someone choose one candidate over another.

In fact, surveys suggest that while the vast majority of Americans know who Swift will be voting for, most are not swayed by her message.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll published a few days after Swift’s endorsement found that just  6% of voters said it would make them more likely to vote for Harris, 81% of voters said the endorsement would make no difference in how they cast their ballots, and 13% said it would make them less likely to support the vice president.

Still, Democrats hope that the endorsement could drive voter turnout.

Many argue that in a presidential election likely to be decided on by a few thousand votes in six or seven states, every vote counts, especially if celebrities can motivate younger voters and others who are less likely to show up at the polls.

A Harvard University study released last month focused on celebrities’ ability to get out the vote and encourage voter participation. The report concluded that celebrity involvement in elections could be helpful in voter turnout, especially among Gen Z and millennials.

“While some polling shows that people claim they aren’t influenced by celebrity voices when it comes to politics, more rigorous evidence indicates that these voices are incredibly powerful,” according to the study.

It added that celebrities “are uniquely positioned to empower everyday Americans to use their voices and exercise their civil rights.”

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