Should the Israeli Military Campaign Continue?

One year after the Oct 7^th atrocity, the horror continues, Palestinian civilians and young Israeli soldiers continue to die and a much wider conflict appears to be on the way. After a year of peace marches, letters to the press, discussions on radio and a death toll of between 40 and 100 thousand there are still a surprising number in the West who believe in the need for Israel to continue with its military campaign

Other people (such as myself) are horrified by the terrorism, but believe Israel’s response to be excessive, unjustified and counterproductive. Sadly, as was the case during the Troubles, discussing this issue is so contentious that most of us avoid face to face conversations and division between differing points of view has been hardened by the tendency to label as foolish or immoral those who take a different view point.

Places like Twitter are so limited that interactions often lead to angry accusations, rather than genuine discussion, so I am grateful to a friend who took time to explain why people like me are wrong and why Israel will continue. The argument goes something like this:

1. There are no successful Arab democracies and the culture, history and the Muslim religion all seem to make autocracy or dictatorship more likely to develop than liberal democracy.
2. In countries where women are allowed to exercise political power, they bring extra skills and improve the way power is exercised for the common good. Unfortunately, Arab nations are becoming more restrictive towards women, denying them power. You will have seen pictures of women wearing swimsuits on the beach in Iran before 1980 compared to being bullied into hiding behind a hijab or niqab today, or the examples of girl’s schools being closed in Afghanistan, with women forbidden to appear in public or speak out.
3. There is no belief in a ‘live and let live’ attitude to difference and hence there is no path to a peaceful solution, other than one imposed by force.
4. The desire for a peaceful solution is understandable, but the ‘two state solution’ with an independent Palestine nation is now impossible because there is no trust on either side.
5. The violence has gone so far that only when one side wins, and wins convincingly will this violence end. Israeli and Palestinian distrust is now so extreme that peace between equals is impossible, Israel must be dominant. Consequently, when Netanyahu reminds Arab nations that there is no part of the Middle East that Israel cannot reach with its forces, this is an ugly step towards overall stability and peace.

All of these points are questionable.

I do not believe that democracy is impossible for Arab and Muslim nations, but that democracy takes time to evolve. It was already developing in Iran by 1952 when the Americans and British organised a coup to defeat the democratic politicians who wanted to control Iranian oil, replacing them with the corrupt Shah.

As for point 2, westerners believe women must be allowed to present themselves in whatever way they choose and that allowing women equal political power is essential. Regimes that restrict the freedom and power of women will always struggle to attract sympathy from the western public. Perhaps there is a lesson to be learned here?

On points 3 and 4, it is possible that a ‘two-state solution’ may now be impossible. It may be that Israel will subsume all the territory into a greater Israel, but Israel must realise that this will mean giving Palestinians full Israeli citizenship and this will inevitably end the special Jewish status of the regime. A Jewish state for a Jewish people cannot accommodate a sizeable minority of non-Jewish citizens.

On point 5, I fear the ‘sunk cost fallacy’ is having an undue influence on Western political leaders. Politicians have invested so much political capital in supporting Israel’s bombing campaign, so many have already been killed, that it is almost unthinkable that we stop now. The road back to political negotiations seems so hard that some cling to a mythical ‘victory’ where all Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists are killed and Iran is wiped out.

Victory for Israel

There is an unwillingness to spell out what a realistic victory for Israel will look like. People cling to fantasies where those Palestinians left alive (who will have seen children maimed and parents killed by the IDF) will retain no serious ill will towards Israel and will be happy to remain as second-class citizens of a state that remains under Israeli domination.

Israel is a nuclear power and already has more political clout across the world than fading nations like Britain, but the idea that it will be allowed to dominate the entire Middle East seems fanciful. If you were a neighbour of Israel, I suggest you would no longer feel safe relying on the USA or the UN to restrict Israel’s expansionist beliefs. Getting access to nuclear weapons would seem to be the only way to guarantee your country’s safety.

Restrictions on the Future

It is not for us in the West to dictate the final solution for Palestine and Israel but two restrictions on that solution seem obvious:

• Driving out the Palestinian people from Gaza and the West Bank to provide living space for Israelis is not a realistic option, finding a way to accommodate Palestinians as equals will be a necessity.
• Similarly, resettling the entire population of Israel in Europe or the USA might seem easier as many have dual passports but is not a realistic option – finding a way to let Jewish people who were born in Palestine continue to live there in peace, in a state where they feel they belong is also necessary.

I still believe that the N. Ireland peace process is a good example for Israel to consider. Prisoner releases and negotiations were not easy, talking to our enemies did not make them our friends, but it did stop us killing each other’s children.

Just as N. Ireland’s future is still evolving and may be different to that which our parents expected, the next generation of Palestinians and Israelis may choose a different future than that violent conflict pre-ordained by the zealots of the past.

Arnold is a retired teacher from Belfast.