Well, thank you, GB News. Those were two hours of our lives that we aren’t getting back.
From the moment Robert Jenrick won the toss and put himself in to bat first, last night’s leadership special was depressingly predictable. For all his impressive Julius Caesar haircut, the former Immigration Minister hadn’t learnt the essential lesson from the dictator’s funeral: always go second.
It provides you with the opportunity to respond to your opponent, judge the atmosphere of the audience, and avoid any tripwires on which they step. Jenrick gave a perfectly credible performance and won a couple of converts in the audience survey at the close. But for all his undoubted fluency, he couldn’t quite escape the charge that he had positioned himself as the warm-up act.
If anyone had doubted the Shadow Housing Secretary was the frontrunner in this race, it was confirmed not only by the whoops and hollers of the Tory member audience at the mere sight of her, but by their breaking for her by a hearty margin in the final poll. Jenrick was in front of an away crowd.
Perhaps the Westminster audience was unrepresentative. Having attended the London hustings of Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss in 2022, the former received a much warmer reception there than anywhere else. A poll of attendees is a crude metric compared to the ineffable wisdom of the ConservativeHome members’ survey, coming soon to an inbox near you.
Jenrick did not have a bad outing. Far from it. “Immigration is not just one issue amongst many,” he opened. “It is the issue”. Gavin Rice’s diligent work would suggest that it is not the sole reason why we lost, but at least the most fundamental one. If anyone doubted Jenrick was serious on this issue, he hammered home his solutions: leaving the ECHR and capping legal migration.
On housing, prison releases, hate marches, taxation, and more, Jenrick hit the right and traditional notes. His description of Labour as “so new and so stale” was an almost poetic encapsulation of this administration’s abysmal qualities. But there was no one game-changing moment, gaffe, or whoop.
From the moment Badenoch entered, it was clear who the room’s favourite was. She only had to avoid rugby-tackling Christopher Hope or making a suggestion about maternity pay to end the night on top. “The broken system is going to need an engineer to fix it,” she smiled. “I am an engineer”. Cue applause.
If Jenrick’s team had hoped that her policy-free campaign would contrast badly with their man’s shopping list of solutions, it wasn’t discernible. This leadership is election “is not a test of who can make the biggest promises”, she argued. She offered a return to open principles. The welfare bill is too large; leaving the ECHR insufficient; the NHS needs reform. Broad brush, but enough.
For her disdain for The Guardian, left-wing culture warriors, or her critics over removing EU regulations, Badenoch won the audience’s approval. Few would agree that no one “else has done more on Brexit than [she] did”. But unless their key issue was the ECHR, she was the more adept at tickling the members’ bellies. Not that I loved Jenrick less, but that I loved Badenoch more.
Will last night have changed anything? Unlikely. Many members – like myself – will have voted already. Its greatest impact will be in spurring Badenoch on to avoid any further televised appearances between the pair. Based on this, she can afford to coast for two more weeks. Without a debate, there was no opportunity for Jenrick to land a real blow – exactly how she would like it.
Is that a positive development? For a candidate who makes much out of suggesting Keir Starmer fears her, her apparent unwillingness to debate her rival is surprising. If nothing else, Badenoch could treat it as practice for the PMQs she hopes to be doing in a month. When she is challenged on the substance of her pitch, how will she react? We are unlikely to see.
This week’s most important development for the future of the Tory leadership took place not on the GB News stage, but in a meeting of the 1922 Committee a day before. Katy Balls reports that on Wednesday evening its executive met to agree the MP threshold for a confidence vote should be raised.
Previously, if 15 per cent of the parliamentary party submit letters to Bob Blackman, a vote takes place. That means 18 MPs can set in motion the toppling of our next leader. That threshold could now rise to a third, meaning 41 MPs will be required to sign and deliver for the next no-confidence vote.
A happy development for those of us whose mental health is linked to the number of leadership races we endure a year. But Badenoch reached the final round with 42 MPs and Jenrick 41. If there is enough bad blood after this contest, the chances of us doing this all again in two years are not insubstantial.
Et tu, Cleverly? The game commences, for the usual fee, plus expenses.
