Kemi Badenoch must be wholeheartedly congratulated in her moment of triumph. Her victory was hardly unexpected. She has been leading in ConservativeHome surveys since 2022. Members have now had the chance to vote for her that they were denied by MPs then. It’s an obvious source of deep satisfaction for Giles, Henry, and I that our poll once again proved broadly accurate.
Yet even if she won by a clear 13 per cent, it was not an overwhelming victory. She won by a smaller margin than any previous leader under the post-William Hague system. Having only commanded one more MP than Jenrick in the second-to-last round, with a total comprising 35 per cent of the not-overly-large parliamentary party, her first task is to bind her party to her.
Whilst it will make sense for her to have allies in crucial roles, such as Andrew Griffith as Shadow Chancellor, a prominent role for Jenrick is surely a must. For her unwillingness to agree to his demand of leaving the ECHR, Shadow Home Secretary might prove too tense. But one expects the two are relatively close on foreign policy, so Shadow Foreign Secretary would be a better bet.
She will be disappointed that James Cleverly has chosen to go to the backbenches. That rugby club party unity spirit has, alas, deserted him. If he hopes to position himself as the affable, what-if, everyone’s-second-choice candidate who can step in if she stumbles, she should support any London Mayoralty bid that he floats. He should choose to muck in.
Tom Tugendhat, Mel Stride, and Priti Patel should all be found roles. So should key Jenrick backers. From the prodigious output of his Substack alone, one could suggest cloning Neil O’Brien and having him fill every shadow brief. With that unlikely, Shadow Health or Immigration might be better bets. Or leave that to Nick Timothy and let him roam freely, in a Keith Joseph-style super portfolio.
With Rishi Sunak having bequeathed her our first poll lead since 2021, Badenoch will not come under pressure in the short-to-medium term. A government as abysmal as this one will provide her with plenty of open goals. But, as Hague proved, a few good performances at PMQs are not enough to overhaul a landslide Labour majority. She will, at some point, need policies.
Whilst Jenrick shared much of Badenoch’s analysis of the structural reasons for our failure to make the country more conservative, he displayed the willingness to reverse its obvious manifestations. The Equalities Act, the ECHR, the Climate Change Act, the planning system, human quantitative easing: the afuera cry went up. Badenoch is reticent to do the same. She must show why.
Badenoch’s studious silence on policy allowed her to stay uncommitted. That enabled her to reach out across the party and win the support of various grandees. But she will have to make difficult choices. If she is as serious as she claims to be about changing Britain, she must make a lot of people quite angry, including many in her own party. Can she kill the Sons of Brutus?
Tonight, Badenoch should celebrate. Quite honestly, her “smashing of the glass ceiling” is not something that interests me. I have little time for identity politics. But if Badenoch, her supporters, and many looking on in Britain and around the world, see it as a significant achievement, all power to them. Chortle at Labour’s expense, even if it means trying to play their game.
But tomorrow the hard work begins: the five-year slog of getting us back into power. We must prove to a disillusioned electorate that rejected us en masse that we have listened, changed, and are serious about being the revolutionary they need. They hate us. They hate Labour. They hate politics. I think Badenoch gets that. She must prove it, and soon, or voters will hate her too.
The average tenure of a Tory leader since John Major stepped down has been only three and a half years. That would not take us to the next election. With only 121 MPs, we hang together or fall separately. But if Badenoch does not achieve a consistent lead over Labour and Reform within a couple of years, if not months, MPs will start getting twitchy, even with the new threshold.
The partisans of Boris Johnson and Penny Mordaunt will strike up. Badenoch would be mad to let either stand. Even within Parliament, if Cleverly isn’t considered a threat, one can never rule out a Sunak restoration. He is the only MP that all current Tories in the Commons have, at some point, agreed should be Prime Minister. Northallerton will only hold him for so long.
Even if Labour have struggled, one cannot rule out them turning things around as they get used to government and carry out a few judicious reshuffles. Reform are establishing themselves as a national political force, winning council by-elections. Nigel Farage will try to outflank Badenoch immediately on immigration. She must have an answer ready on that existential issue, or she will lose.
By the next election, there will be a better chance than at any point since the war for a third party to break the Tory-Labour duopoly. That might be Farage, or the Start-Up Party may move from Substack into reality. The Conservative Party has no divine right to exist. Wipeout is a genuine proposition. Badenoch must admit that. She must fight to save the party she loves.
But all of that is for the future. We have our new leader. She is thoughtful, passionate, and committed. She has the backing of our members. She has a grasp of the task ahead, and the gumption, when many would flee the scene, to get us back into government. We wish her all the best. We have work to do. The game commences, for the usual fee, plus expenses.
