Andy Farrell has announced the Ireland team to take on New Zealand on Friday night. It contains five changes from the team which beat South Africa in our last test match last July. Hugo Keenan returns from Olympic sevens’ duty and Mack Hansen, Bundee Aki, and Jamison Gibson-Park return from injury. In a further injury enforced change, Finlay Bealham replaces Tadgh Furlong who is carrying what is said to be a minor knock from training.
Furlong’s absence could cause Ireland problems as the All Blacks are expected to recall Ethan De Groot after his omission from the England game for disciplinary reasons. De Groot is New Zealand’s best loosehead and caused Ireland plenty of problems in the World Cup quarter-final. Time for Finlay Bealham and Tom O’Toole to step up!
Ireland’s other vulnerability is at hooker with Dan Sheehan injured and Kelleher and Herring only just back from injury with the grand total of 12 minutes of rugby this season between them. Match fitness could be a problem, but they have the experience to cope. Front row is Ireland’s major area of weakness compared to the other top teams, but hopefully the All Blacks won’t be strong enough to exploit our lack of depth there.
Overall, it is as strong a team as could be hoped for with only Furlong, Sheehan, and Conan out injured and good players like Henshaw, Baird, Nash, Stockdale, McCloskey, Casey, and the Prendergast brothers failing to make the XXIII man cut. The team doesn’t lack for experience and Osborne continues his meteoric rise to make the bench ahead of Henshaw to cover the centres and back three. Frawley will hopefully grow further into the specialist 10 role if he gets a run there. Young guns like Sam Prendergast and Cormac Izuchukwu will have to wait for the Fiji match to get their chance.
The All Blacks have the advantage of playing continuously since the Rugby Championship and with recent wins against Japan and England under their belts should be match hardened, if not battle weary, although they, too, have their injury concerns with Beauden Barrett and Codie Taylor their most recent casualties. The back three of Wil Jordan, Mark Tele’a, and Caleb Clarke and flanker Wallace Sititi will need close watching if their performance against England is any guide.
Whereas once Ireland were simply in awe of New Zealand and happy to avoid a hiding, a genuine rivalry has opened up in recent years. Ireland have won 5 matches out of 9 since their first win in Chicago in 2016, but unfortunately one of those defeats included the quarter-final defeat in last year’s World Cup. A win of Friday night won’t put that right but would provide good evidence our game is still developing in the right direction. Players like Crowley, Frawley, O’Toole, McCarthy and Osborne are still developing and will benefit from the experience.
Ireland should win this match if they can hit the ground running, but anything less than a 100% performance will leave us vulnerable. This New Zealand team may not rank with their all time greats, but they have been good enough to pull some really tight matches out of the fire, as they did against England last weekend.
Tactically it will be interesting to see how effective Ireland’s rush defence is against a lethal All Black counter-attacking game and whether Crowley can exert his authority and control at 10. There wasn’t a single place kick at goal missed in the England New Zealand match until Ford’s late cameo effort hit the post and I doubt there will be much room for error here. New Zealand gave away a lot of penalties against England, and any repeat of such indiscipline should allow us to get a foothold into the game.
Otherwise, it is difficult to see much of a gap between the two sides, and the better side on the day will probably shade it. Let’s hope Ireland can get it together in time
Ireland Vs. New Zealand
15. Hugo Keenan (UCD/Leinster)(39)
14. Mack Hansen (Corinthians/Connacht)(21)
13. Garry Ringrose (UCD/Leinster)(60)
12. Bundee Aki (Galwegians/Connacht)(57)
11. James Lowe (Leinster)(33)
10. Jack Crowley (Cork Constitution/Munster)(16)
9. Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster)(35)
1. Andrew Porter (UCD/Leinster)(66)
2. Rónan Kelleher (Lansdowne/Leinster)(33)
3. Finlay Bealham (Buccaneers/Connacht)(42)
4. Joe McCarthy (Dublin University/Leinster)(12)
5. James Ryan (UCD/Leinster)(64)
6. Tadhg Beirne (Lansdowne/Munster)(52)
7. Josh van der Flier (UCD/Leinster)(64)
8. Caelan Doris (St Mary’s College/Leinster)(43)(captain)
Replacements:
16. Rob Herring (Ballynahinch/Ulster)(40)
17. Cian Healy (Clontarf/Leinster)(131)
18. Tom O’Toole (Ballynahinch/Ulster)(13)
19. Iain Henderson (Academy/Ulster)(81)
20. Peter O’Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster)(107)
21. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)(118)
22. Ciaran Frawley (UCD/Leinster)(6)
23. Jamie Osborne (Naas/Leinster)(2).
PS New Zealand have just named their team, and surprisingly it does not include Ethan De Groot. It is a good side, but not as intimidating as some of their teams used to be.
NEW ZEALAND: Will Jordan; Mark Tele’a, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Caleb Clarke; Damian McKenzie, Cortez Ratima; Tamaiti Williams, Asafo Aumua, Tyrel Lomax; Scott Barrett (capt), Tupou Vaa’i; Wallace Sititi, Sam Cane, Ardie Savea.
Replacements: George Bell, Oda Tu’ungafasi, Pasilio Tosi, Patrick Tuipulotu, Samipeni Finau, Cam Roigard, Anton Lienert-Brown, Stephen Perofeta.
Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.
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