Now that five years have passed since the UK left the EU, we can declare failure in one key aspect.
Politicians, the media, and businesses never stopped talking about relations with Europe.
Simply put, our economic and security engagement is too extensive to ignore. Unfortunately, our national conversation largely ignores this reality and shows limited understanding of the EU.
On the leave side there has been little acceptance of the obvious economic cost and challenge of a trading nation wanting regulatory independence. Suggesting the EU as a fading influence also tends to ignore geography.
Pro-EU folk are obsessed with Labour’s red lines, thinking a Customs Union could probably be negotiated immediately. They tend not to notice any domestic political challenges, even though in speaking about a Customs Union they are themselves hiding what they really want – to join the EU – because of such sensitivities.
While Labour’s engagement, particularly in government, has been welcomed across Europe, the worry in Brussels and beyond is that the real obstacle is the immaturity of the UK’s debate.
This is why the proposal for a youth mobility scheme is so important, as a test of whether a new narrative can be forged in London.
Mutually beneficial deals can be done
Leaving the EU was always going to mean that UK business faced more barriers than counterparts in all neighbouring countries. In particular smaller businesses would be harder hit.
That not all of this applies to Northern Ireland indicated another major challenge with leaving the EU.
Even by the standards of the badly named Free Trade Agreements – which centre on lower tariffs not the almost full free trade of EU membership – the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement is shallow.
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In particular the absence of regulatory alignment meant significant new barriers, while mobility provisions don’t support modern many of those providing services in either direction.
This leaves plenty to negotiate, and contrary to common wisdom in the UK, interest on both sides. Labour’s surprising initial emphasis on agricultural rather than industrial trade appears to be changing, while the EU has always wanted more freedom of movement and is fearful of losing access to agriculture or fish.
While not economic game-changers, there are mutually beneficial deals that can be done. Nick Thomas-Symonds is putting in the travel that none of his Brexit-era predecessors did, and Keir Starmer’s engagement has been welcome.
That’s the potential, but there’s more to trade negotiations than the opportunity.
Brussels officials carry scars from the Brexit negotiations
Brussels officials carry the scars from dealing with the UK. Not from the pantomime walkouts and cartoon toughness, but from successive governments that didn’t really know or wouldn’t say what they wanted or were prepared to offer.
There is a general view across the EU that the UK expectation is of seamless trade with no matching obligations. Various suggested improvements claimed to be rejected by Brussels essentially came back to this. Trade may be a mutual benefit, but it is always shaped by mutual benefit and rules.
Hence the importance of youth mobility as Brussels sets out its (difficult for the UK) asks upfront. Ministers no longer rejecting this outright shows they have been listening.
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Domestically, polling suggests majority support for closer EU ties. This is particularly in contrast to the US, and shows some awareness that pursuing closer ties across the Atlantic will be greeted with suspicion in Brussels unless carefully handled.
Ministers are right to be concerned that headline numbers cover up some sensitivities. Suspicion of Brussels, and horror that the UK may have to offer concessions, are fed by a hostile media.
There aren’t magical solutions to be found in detailed negotiations that will solve this issue. Somehow Labour Ministers need to find a new narrative towards the EU that will provide confidence in Brussels and the vast majority of the UK population that is not rigidly EU-phobic.
Eight years of bad takes was always going to be difficult to overcome
Only when the domestic UK debate is more settled can we expect to have successful negotiations with Brussels. For at this stage Ministers feeling the need for secrecy domestically are not able to provide the EU with the public case for extensive engagement.
Ideally at this point of pre-negotiations the governments involved should be setting out in public their frameworks for the deal. This would for example come in the UK saying a youth mobility scheme would have to follow its existing model, or that it is prepared to align in certain areas of regulation but not others.
Such a conversation would then shape the summit outcome as an agenda for detailed negotiations. An example of this was seen recently with welcome conversations around the UK joining the Pan-Euro-Med rules of origin zone.
This example at least shows progress being made. This will however be slow and limited until the UK government can talk more openly about all topics.
Ultimately, the only stable UK-EU relationships are likely to be membership with an opt-out or two, or a Free Trade Agreement with many extra elements on the side.
That however is a discussion that is premature until we can discuss small elements in a realistic manner. Eight years of bad takes was always going to be tough to overcome, but as per the whole growth agenda this is something that has been left to this Labour government.
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