In Reply to Choyaa: The UUP Has a Future…

I read Choyaa’s article entitled ‘Should the UUP just quit rather than have the slow decline?’ published on Slugger O’Toole on 24^th May 2024. As someone who had quit the party after a decade of service in May 2023, I now regret that decision (I will learn from it) – I should have stayed in the UUP and not lost faith in it (the UUP is my political home). I understand a series of poor election results can be demoralising for party activists however, politics does change. I will be voting for the UUP in the upcoming election and will be helping the party. I will explain why it still has a purpose and why the party must keep going.

DUP: Trying to be all things to all people?

At the start of 2024, the DUP agreed to return to government on the basis of its agreement with the national government. At the time, senior DUP elected representatives claimed the Irish Sea Border was removed, allowing it to govern again. Other senior DUP representatives disputed this claim. Now as of writing, the current DUP Leader accepts the Irish Sea Border is still there and that the deal was oversold. So what was the point of the DUP quitting government in the first place, not governing for two years and then returning when its objective was not achieved?

Also, the DUP at the start of the year had given the impression that it wanted to modernise. Some of its representatives had talked about a different style of politics. Both UUP Leader Doug Beattie and TUV Leader Jim Allister remarked that the DUP was wearing the UUP’s clothes. Now in the midst of an election, the DUP is wearing the TUV’s clothes on the Irish Sea Border while also using the slogan “Making NI Work” despite the two-year boycott.

This sudden shift to the TUV’s territory is a result of trying to keep traditionalists in the DUP happy. They have probably referenced the LucidTalk polls showing a drop in support for the DUP from 28% in October 2023 when they boycotted Stormont to 21% in May 2024 since returning to government. The TUV in comparison has doubled its support from 4% (October 2023) to 8% (May 2024). It still has the power to influence the DUP’s direction and policy. Though, the TUV still remains a minority party. The DUP’s main rivals are the UUP and the Alliance Party, polling at 11% and 15% respectively as of May 2024 according to LucidTalk.

UUP: How does it recover?

With the DUP’s shift to the TUV’s territory, this leaves moderate ground to the UUP along with the differences in policy the UUP and DUP have. The UUP is also able to make gains in this election. Even winning one MP seat is an increase and means a return to the Commons in Parliament, countering the decline narrative and increasing the UUP’s visibility. The DUP might also lose seats. If voters can see voting UUP can result in the UUP winning, this will increase confidence in the party.

The UUP can point to its record of making the right calls on major events, from recommending to voters to vote Remain in 2016 in the EU referendum to opposing the boycott of Stormont and always maintaining its commitment to devolution. The DUP’s commitment to devolution is in question considering its change of policy on the Irish Sea Border. How do voters know it won’t collapse Stormont again to see if it can achieve another renegotiation of the deal? Considering the events of the past few months and whether the DUP Leader holds his seat, no-one can be sure what will happen. A more traditional DUP leader could come to power and could direct the DUP on a more TUV-style course.

I also believe more generally unionism needs to realign and rebrand (if it can be achieved) after the election. The three-party politics of unionism is too overlapping and volatile. One would think the UUP and moderate DUP could become a moderate unionist party while traditional DUP and TUV could become a traditional unionist party. The moderate unionist party would be pro-Stormont and would seek to modernise unionism to appeal to the centre ground while the traditional unionist party would be Stormont-sceptical and would represent hardline unionism. This realignment and rebranding of unionism is of course easier said than done though it would ensure moderate unionism would have a future.

Conclusion

The only certainty in politics is uncertainty. No-one knows what will happen. What I do know is moderate unionism does have a future. We must believe in ourselves and never give up. Moderate unionism for me is pro-devolution; allows a free vote on conscience issues to keep in line with changes in society; pragmatic on economics; tries to be constructive; and seeks reconciliation. Moderate unionism is best represented by the UUP. The UUP does have a future.

Michael Palmer holds a degree in Politics from Ulster University and is interested in political ideology, the politics of popular culture and wrote a dissertation on unionism/loyalism.