On June 2, the voice of nearly 100 million voters in Mexico was clearly heard. Claudia Sheinbaum, a highly decorated economist and former head of the government of Mexico City, was elected as president by a huge majority. Sheinbaum was the candidate of a left-wing coalition, led by Morena and which included the socialist Partido del Trabajo (PT) and green party, Verde.
With nearly 60% of the vote, Sheinbaum’s victory represented a huge endorsement of the term of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who founded Morena and took the presidency in 2018.
Amidst a turbulent economic backdrop, major concerns around crime and corruption, Sheinbaum’s victory and Mexico’s recent political history offers intriguing lessons for progressive parties across the world.
Here are five, of particular relevance to LabourList readers:
‘Progressives can work with a Trump administration’
Donald Trump infamously called Mexicans “bad hombres” (and worse) and put “building a wall” across the US-Mexican border to address illegal migration at the centre-piece of his 2016 election campaign. Yet despite his outright early hostility towards Mexico, AMLO found ways to establish a productive working relationship with the US during the Trump era.
AMLO simultaneously stood up to Trump’s criticisms of Mexico – penning a 2017 book denouncing Trump’s attacks – whilst also focusing on trade arrangements, signing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) which replaced NAFTA in July 2020. And trade did indeed flow, with Mexican imports to the US nearly doubling from $64 billion in 2016 to $112 billion. Somewhat surprisingly, a few years into his presidency, Trump was hailing AMLO publicly as “someone I like and respect.”
‘Inequality can be reduced relatively quickly, even with weak economic growth’
Perhaps surprising for their anti-elite, populist positioning, AMLO and Morena have been at pains to demonstrate fiscal probity over the past six years. This has been accompanied by relatively weak economic growth and a growing fiscal deficit.
Yet amidst this challenging economic situation, Morena’s minimum wage policy, cash transfers (which were controversially, universal rather than targeted) and support for smaller businesses saw a material decrease in inequality in Mexico with the wealthiest households’ share of total country income decreasing from 62% to 58% from 2018 to 2024.
‘Political parties can fall apart, even established ones’
Arguably the most dramatic development in Mexico’s political economy over the past decade has been the near-extinction of the country’s ruling party, the PRI. The PRI held exclusive power in Mexico 1929 to 2000, before losing to the centre-right PAN.
After 12 years in opposition, the PRI returned to power in 2012 under Enrique Peña Nieto. But a dozen years later, this once all-powerful party found itself as a junior member of a coalition of opposition parties called “Fuerza y Corazón por México”, which included its once main opponent the PAN and the social democratic party, the PRD. This coalition barely achieved 27% of all votes in the presidential election.
‘Poll ratings don’t always need to fall post-victory’
One of the defining features of AMLO’s presidency was his “mañaneras.” These took place every weekday, led by AMLO, at 7am and broadcast across multiple channels reaching around 10 million Mexicans daily.
Anything but concise, the mañaneras resembled a cross-between a Trump unscripted rally and a daily UK Covid briefing. Despite, or because of, their eccentric nature and AMLO’s undoubtedly effective, folksy communication style, this allowed Morena to feed out its own media messaging. López Obrador will leave office with poll approval ratings north of 60%, a figure which he has almost consistently held. By the time Peña Nieto, AMLO’s predecessor left office, his approval ratings were sub-20%.
‘Anti-corruption measures are popular, even if challenging to enforce’
Cracking down on anti-corruption was a key theme of Morena’s election campaign in 2018. It also remained one of AMLO’s priorities throughout the presidency, and President Sheinbaum looks set to continue this focus.
For a country with a long history of challenges in this area, most observers would conclude results have been mixed. Yet Morena’s focus on the issue through the establishment of the Finance Intelligence Unit and high-profile prosecutions have kept anti-corruption top of the agenda and proved popular with voters.
Read more of our 2024 general election coverage here.
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