Why is it that, so soon after a landslide election, Sir Keir Starmer seems to have plucked defeat from the jaws of victory?
I’ve lost count of the number of Labour Party conferences I’ve attended as a journalist. But I know the first was in 1999 in Bournemouth.
Then, as now, Labour was in power. And then, as now, the prime minister (Tony Blair) faced quite a few noises-off. In Bournemouth a quarter of a century ago, hunting supporters marched through the town in protest at the new Labour government’s plan to ban fox hunting. Blair even made a quip about the demonstrations in his speech: “Tally ho! This is a very good day for foxes.”
Fast forward 25 years and another Labour government is once again banning hunting – this time trail hunting – and again it’s facing protests. But this government, the first Labour administration to hold a conference in 15 years, is being heckled about exporting arms to Israel, and is grappling with noises-off about cuts to pensioner benefits and grumbling about what an astonishing number of MPs perceive as a “dysfunctional” number Ten.
The big difference, though, is that while Blair faced dissent in 1999, that was more than two years after he was swept to power in a landslide. This gathering in Liverpool comes less than a hundred days after Sir Keir Starmer’s historic election win.
Why is it that, so soon after that landslide, Sir Keir seems to have plucked defeat from the jaws of victory?
Part of the answer to that question has to do with the challenges Sir Keir inherited. While Blair enjoyed a sunny economic outlook – and the “war on terror” and the seismic upheavals that followed the 9/11 attacks were still years in the future – Sir Keir faces what he described in his conference speech as “massive challenges” right now.
The economy is sputtering, and internationally there is war in Ukraine – with all the knock-on implications for energy supply and the broader cost of living crisis – and now in the Middle East too. On the home front, public services have been left threadbare by years of cash constraints, and a ballooning benefits bill and the ongoing immigration crisis require “unpopular decisions”, to quote Sir Keir, which saw him confront both left wing opponents in his own party and the threat from the right in the shape of Nigel Farage.
But talking to ministers and backbenchers around Liverpool it was hard to escape a sense of dismay at some of the self-inflicted turmoil emanating from Number Ten. The “freebies” row rumbled on throughout the week here and ministers say it’s highlighted serious problems in the way Downing Street operates.
Sir Keir’s chief of staff Sue Gray has come in for a lot of flak in the papers. Several ministers told me they thought a lot of that smacked of sexism. But many more said Sir Keir’s key aides need to get a grip. A couple of cabinet ministers suggested to me that the former Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth – who unexpectedly lost his seat at the election – should be drafted in as a new strategy chief. Others warned that the communications operation needs to be far more hands-on, with some older, wiser hands recruited to beef things up. When it comes to the civil service, key staff are also lacking with the cabinet secretary expected to leave soon and, as former Conservative leader William Hague highlighted this week, a general amazement that Sir Keir still doesn’t have a principal private secretary.
The prime minister’s supporters say it’s early days, there will be slings and arrows but the scale of his election win makes him invincible. “We’re listening and we’re learning,” Science, Innovation and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle told me.
That’s almost exactly what Blair said in 2000 in response to the fuel protests. A year later he won another landslide. Perhaps that thought will steady nerves here in Liverpool.
