Until now, the warring parties have remained Russia and Ukraine, and the war has not spread. But could the involvement of North Korea change that?
In the twentieth century, two European wars morphed into world wars. Allies and empires, friends and foes led to new fronts and theatres opened up until they became global conflicts. Could the same thing happen with the war in Ukraine?
From the billion dollars of military support provided by Australia to the impact on food and fuel prices in Zimbabwe, Russia’s war in Ukraine has impacted countries around the world.
Since Russia invaded in February 2022, Western allies have supplied Ukraine with increasingly advanced weapons. From tanks, to planes, to long-range missiles. At each stage some have hesitated as to whether the latest move was a step too far.
The West gambled that Putin – despite his threats – would not declare war on Nato allies. An attack on one would be treated as an attack on all by the Euro-Atlantic alliance, potentially bringing all of Europe as well as the US and Canada immediately into the conflict.
So far the gamble has paid off. Ukraine has got the hardware. Europe and the US have stayed out of the war.
And Russia has played a similar game. First it looked to its closest neighbours and allies like Belarus.
And then it became more audacious. Russia now receives parts, though not weapons, from China, according to Nato. Whilst evidence from Western intelligence, and from debris in Ukraine, suggests Iran is supplying Russia with fully fledged drones and missiles.
Iran, China and even Belarus have supplied what Russia wanted in return for cash or technology, but remained out of the conflict.
So up until now, the warring parties have remained Russia and Ukraine. And the war has not spread.
But could the involvement of North Korea change that?
North Korean troops are now “quite literally in combat” with Ukrainians, the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, confirmed on Wednesday, following reports by the Pentagon last week that 10,000 North Korean troops were stationed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
Blinken’s comments suggest North Korean troops are fighting Ukranians on Russian soil.
And that suddenly means Asia is more directly involved.
“The Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific, these are not two separate theatres” said Nato’s Secretary General Mark Rutte, reacting to intelligence about the role of North Korea.
“This is all getting more and more combined and what is happening in Ukraine has an impact globally,” he warned on Wednesday.
The US Secretary of State on a visit to Nato headquarters in Brussels went further.
“We see, increasingly, the indivisibility of security between and among these different theatres, the Euro-Atlantic theatre, the Indo-Pacific theatre, the Middle East,” Blinken said.
North Korea’s role in the war “demands, and will get, a firm response,” he added, without indicating what that could be.
Could this be a moment of contagion? Is the war in Ukraine about to spread?
Europe and the US maintain that they will not get directly involved. Instead they pledge to continue to support Ukraine with billions of dollars. At least until Donald Trump takes office in January.
It is unclear if North Korea’s role can be limited to a kind of mercenary army or if it might get dragged into the conflict directly.
China’s reaction will be important. North Korea is heavily dependent on the Chinese. Some analysts have suggested Beijing may yet rein in the North Koreans if it upsets China’s global power play.
Meanwhile the West is worried about what Russia has given North Korea in return for the troop deployment.
Putin “is paying for this by technology, for example, missile technology going to North Korea,” said Nato chief Rutte.
“And that is presenting a threat not only to the European side of Nato, but also to the US mainland, to South Korea, to Japan.”
