James Cleverly soared into an astonishing lead in the Tory leadership race today.
The former home and foreign secretary roared up on the rails from third to pass former frontrunner Kemi Badenoch and long time frontrunner Robert Jenrick.
Mr Cleverly was the main beneficiary of a third round of votes by Tory MPs this afternoon after impressing at party conference in Birmingham last week.
Tom Tugendhat, the former security minister, became the third challenger to be eliminated this afternoon, and it is generally thought that his moderate backers are more likely to switch allegiance to Mr Cleverly in a fourth vote tomorrow.
That would suggested he is nailed on to make the final two play-off which goes to a vote by Tory members, with Jenrick and Badenoch fighting it out to join him.
They both struggled at the conference after a string of gaffes and poorly received speeches.
Any result that prevents Ms Badenoch from advancing is likely to spark uproar from her supporters.
While the money is on Mr Cleverly, she remains the favourite among the Tory membership, who will have the final say on who is crowned the new party boss on November 2.
Mr Cleverly was the main beneficiary of a third round of votes by Tory MPs this afternoon after impressing at party conference in Birmingham last week
He appears nailed on to make the final two play-off which goes to a vote by Tory members, with Jenrick and Badenoch fighting it out to join him
The former home and foreign secretary roared up on the rails from third to pass former frontrunner Kemi Badenoch and long-time frontrunner Robert Jenrick
Tom Tugendhat, the former security minister, became the third challenger to be eliminated this afternoon, and it is generally thought that his moderate backers are more likely to switch allegiance to Mr Cleverly in a fourth vote tomorrow
A spokesman for Ms Badenoch’s campaign said: ‘There are three candidates left in this contest, two are gaining votes and one is going backwards and losing support.
‘The right of the Conservative Party now needs to coalesce around Kemi, who can reach across and unify the party, has the star quality to cut through in Opposition, and is indisputably the members’ choice for leader.’
But a Jenrick campaign source said: ‘Robert is now in prime position to make the final two. MPs want seriousness and competence. That’s why he’s won support from across the party so far – from Danny Kruger on the right to Vicky Atkins on the left.’
Mr Cleverly has become the bookmakers’ favourite after he urged party members to be ‘more normal’ and ‘sell Conservatism with a smile’ in a speech in Birmingham.
And a new poll today suggests he is the only candidate to end the event more popular with members than before.
He was previously level with Mr Tugendhat, but has been boosted by the backing of former candidate Mel Stride and Paul Holmes, who quit as a party whip today in order to publicly back him.
Tories said a run-off between Mr Cleverly and Ms Badenoch would be ‘too close to call’ and ‘could go either way’.
Mr Cleverly said he was pleased to be through and vowed to continue spreading ‘our positive Conservative message.’
The result is a shock for Mr Jenrick, who had lead the contest from the start.
However he appears to have gone down badly with members and MPs after his party conference showcase, which included hardline positions on immigration – and a row over campaign merchanise featuring a slogan describing a sex act.
One veteran Tory aide told MailOnline: ‘Those Bobby J baseball caps have blown him up, just like David Davis with the DD for Me shirts.’
And a source from a rival camp said MPs had ‘stopped buying the bullsh**’, adding: ‘Now that’s become obvious, people are ditching him. He had careerist supporters who now know he can’t win.’
Mr Tugendhat thanked his supporters after Tuesday’s ballot. In a post on X, formerly Twitter, he said: ‘To everyone who backed our campaign – thank you!
‘Your energy, your ideas and your support have shown a vision of what our party could become.
‘Our campaign has ended but our commitment to our country continues.’
Mr Stride earlier described Mr Cleverly as ‘strong, clear and measured’.
‘We need a leader who both gets the need for the rapid reform of our party machine but who can also reach across the party and appeal to our broad base.
‘Someone who has experience in government, the party, and is an effective communicator,’ he wrote in The Telegraph.
Mr Tugendhat, the former soldier and security minister, came fourth despite pulling in more money that the other candidates and winning the backing of influential figures including Andy Street, the former West Midlands mayor.
Former minister and ex-MP Steve Baker, who is backing Mr Tugendhat, said Mr Cleverly is ‘extremely affable’ but said that ‘being affable is not in itself enough to be a successful prime minister’.
He added: ‘It does look like James was very well received at conference.’
He said there is a ‘very significant information asymmetry’ between members of parliament and voting Tory party members.
‘Members of Parliament know more about these candidates than is presented in speeches and they will judge the candidates on more than what’s in the speeches,’ he added.
Mr Baker said he thought Mr Tugendhat was ‘better equipped to take the difficult decisions which need to be taken’ and that his tone on issues like the European Convention on Human Rights is ‘far superior to Robert (Jenrick)’.
Former immigration minister Mr Jenrick has put leaving the ECHR at the centre of his campaign and sparked a backlash last week after he claimed in a video that UK special forces are ‘killing rather than capturing’ terrorists.
Mr Tugendhat has said he would introduce a cap on legal migration if he were prime minister.
He has acknowledged that his three competitors have ‘more management experience around the cabinet table’, but said: ‘I am not here to manage, I am here to lead.’
Former business secretary Ms Badenoch faced criticism during the conference for having suggested statutory maternity pay places an ‘excessive’ burden on small businesses.
She said in her conference speech that ‘I do not like to fight but I’m not afraid to fight’.
