Kogi State is divided into three Senatorial Districts; Central, East and West, populated by the Ebira, Igala and Yoruba majority tribes, respectively. In Kogi’s 33 years of three dispensations of democracy, the Igala of Kogi East, who according to 2006 census constitute 46 per cent of the state’s population have produced three governors who ruled the state for nearly two decades. Subsequently, the Ebira of Kogi Central have produced two governors, and are currently on a third term of 12 years in the Lugard House, while the Yoruba of the West have none.
There are, of course, subsisting arguments for or against the constitutionality of power rotation amongst the component parts of Kogi State. Until 2015, there was also the usual capitulation by the minorities; Kogi West and Central to sitting governors from Igala ethnic groups. But while the Ebira have had their breakthrough, albeit occasioned by some “divine intervention”, the West seems not to have learnt from the past. The lack of unity and inability to present and rally around a consensus candidate, is believed to be responsible for the fate of Kogi West people, which has seen the more elite region lag behind in the inequitable distribution of power in the self-styled Confluence State.
Until in the last three election cycles, the West and Central had been repeatedly consigned to the position of bystanders in the politics and economy of the state. But beyond the branded population figures, which put Kogi Central at 30 and West at 20 percent of the state’s population, emerging facts from the 2023 elections vis-a-vis the distribution of voters registration, Permanent Voter’s Cards collected and voting strength per senatorial district, have proved to the contrary.
For instance, ahead of the February 25, 2023 federal elections across Kogi State, according to the records of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the summary of the registered voters per senatorial district showed that Kogi East, which consists nine local government areas led with 952,369 registered voters, followed by Kogi West with seven local government areas put at 505, 731, while Kogi Central with five local government areas had 474,554. Numbers of collected Permanent Voter’s Cards (PVC) for the 2023 governorship election per senatorial district are as follows: Kogi East—905,274; Kogi Central ‐–461,096; Kogi West—466, 790.
The February 2023 National Assembly elections also showed that the total votes cast between the APC and PDP, the two formidable parties, in Kogi East clocked 190, 439 votes altogether; Kogi West recorded a total 122,148 votes; while Kogi Central accounted for 103,895 votes.
In terms of voting strength per senatorial district, the foregoing analysis places Kogi West in an advantage position, second only to Kogi East.
Dr Tunde Olusunle, a respected journalist and author, recalled the sheer number and quality of aspirants from Kogi West, who dominated the gubernatorial race on the platform of the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) among who are tested bureaucrats like Prince Olusola Akanmode, revered legal luminaries like Chief Bayo Ojo, SAN; accomplished business moguls like Abdulrasaq Isa Kutepa; established political figures like Chiefs Abiodun Ojo and Clarence Olafemi and other respected names like Col. Bello Fadile, Deinde Abolarin, and most recently, Dino Melaye and Leke Abejide who ran on the platforms of the PDP and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) respectively. “While some of these bigwigs would have been able to genuinely impact the socio-politics and economy of Kogi State beyond many previous chief executives, a lack of consensus ensured we lost that opportunity”.
Olusunle, a former presidential aide further recalled that “in investing its votes, resources and emotions in the Idris Wada candidature for PDP and Abubakar Audu of APC in the November 2015 governorship election, the rationalisation in Kogi West was that both men were only constitutionally entitled to a second and final term under the 1999 Constitution. They were expected to complete this in 2019 and make way for a succeeding governor from Kogi West. Coincidentally, both governorship candidates had running mates from Kogi West: Arc. Yomi Awoniyi for PDP and Hon. Abiodun Faleke for APC. The unfortunate demise of Abubakar Audu, midway through the election, however, altered this original permutation, such that Kogi Central produced the Yahaya Bello regime”.
From history, the Igalas, while the region heldsway, for as long as it could, ignored the agitation to support a candidate from outside the East until when they could no longer have the opportunity to willingly relinquish power. Eventually, between their eyes, power slipped from their hands through the death in very mysterious circumstances of Abubakar Audu in 2015. Yahaya Bello, an Ebira, succeeded Idris Wada, the last claimant of Igala hegemonic rule, and the rest is history. Bello’s first tenure ending in 2019 presented the avenue to a fresh test of the long-standing quest for bonding by the minorities. Unlike in the past, this time, the coalition was strengthened by the advantage of incumbency.
Against all odds, Bello was reelected in 2019. Bello’s election for a fresh term also put to trial the numbers hitherto claimed by the majority Igala tribe as the votes from Kogi Central and West clearly outweighed those from the East.
Once settled to his last term on the saddle, the following puzzles surficed weighing options available to Bello: Did he owe his emergence as a second term governor to any coalition between the central and any others? Would he be obliged to support a candidate from Kogi West, in other words, to complete the rotation of power? Would he opt for an Ebira successor? Would it be difficult to blackmail him if he decided to do so? Would he damn the talks about equity and return the baton to a successor from Igala majority ethic group?
To a reasonable extent, Bello owed his second term victory to the coalition of support from outside the central, especially the West’s support. Likewise, his successor, Ahmed Usman Ododo has the West, Okunland precisely, to thank for gaining enough support base and votes outside his based in Kogi Central, which helped in no small measures to edge out the Igala consensus candidate, Yakubu Ajaka. The emergence of Ododo as Bello’s successor, however meant that the expectations of the people of Okunland that Bello would reciprocate their support in 2019, when done with his second and last term, were dashed. Bello in 2023, did not only ensure that Ododo picked the gubernatorial ticket of the ruling APC ahead of qualified aspirants from the West but also got the support of party men and women from Okunland who ensured that Bello’s kinsman, emerged ahead of their own in Dino Melaye and Leke Abejide, who flew the flags of PDP and African Democratic Congress (ADC) respectively. How strategic the choice of the people of Kogi West in the November 2023 election vis their agelong quest for power rotation to the zone, is better left to posterity.
Going forward, the majority Igala tribe has a lot to learn from the recently concluded election in Edo State. Despite having the most population in Kogi State, with the uncommon unity displayed in the voting pattern which gave Murtala Yakubu Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) 80 percent of Igala votes, the final outcome of the November 2023 polls confirmed the long-established assertion that none of the three senatorial Districts can single handedly win Kogi governorship election without the support of another.
Whereas the Edo South Senatorial District constitutes 60 percent of the voting population of Edo State, Edo North accounts for about 24 percent, while Edo Central has only 16 percent, the lesson is that Edo South has played a unique role in ensuring equitable power rotation amongst the three Senatorial Districts.
The leadership role played by the Oba of Benin, Omo N’Oba N’Edo Uku Akpolokpolo is worthy of emulation. The respected monarch refused to play ethnic politics by refusing to support the candidature of Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP) despite that the erstwhile National President, Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) is a worthy Benin son. Instead, he mobilized his people to support a minority Monday Okpebholo from Edo Central Senatorial District as governor.
Noted a political analyst, “There are a lot of lessons for Kogi to learn from this, Igala in particular. For nearly first two decades of the current political dispensation, power resided with the majority Igala ethic group, until 2015. What had been noticeable was outright disregard for equitable share of power by the majority tribe with heterogeneous mixtures.
In Kogi state, it is time for the people of Kogi West to come together and count themselves worthy of the governorship, rather than continuing to play second fiddle. Kogi East needs to learn from the Benins, by supporting a worthy Kogi West Senatorial District person in the next Governorship election. This will help to put an end to the fraud in the name of elections in Kogi State. The next Governor of Kogi State after Kogi East’s aggregate reign of 18 years, and Central’s 12 years running, should emerge from Kogi West. The Ebira should not wait like the Igalas until it is no longer in their hands.
Kogi West had played the patient dog in the folktale, which will eat its own garnished broth, once Kogi Central completed its eight years cycle in 2023. That was the calculation of Kogi West-post 2019. Regrettably, as seen in the outcome of the September 21 governorship election in Edo State, rotation has been perfected in states across the country from one senatorial zone to the other but Kogi State remains something of an exception, largely because of the hitherto domicile of the gubernatorial position in Kogi East.
“The predominantly Igala speaking Kogi East had exercised virtual monopoly of the Lugard House. Beginning from the pioneer civilian administration of Abubakar Audu between January 2, 1992 and November 1993, Kogi East had maintained a stranglehold on the office. Between Audu, Idris and Wada, the Igala of Kogi East grossed a minimum of 18 years at the helm in Lugard House. For the Ebira, by the time Yahaya Bello concluded his second term in office in 2024, the Ebira of Kogi Central had logged eight years in the same office. In a rational, free and fair political situation, Okunland in Kogi West should have automatically and unanimously produced Bello’s successor. Kogi is not the only state with divergent cultures and ethnicities. Elsewhere, seamless rotation has been perfected to accord every segment of the various states a sense of belonging. Beginning in 1999 with an Urhobo governor in James Ibori, other ethnicities are taking their turns in Delta State. Emmanuel Uduaghan (2007-2015) and Ifeanyi Okowa (2015 to 2023) have flown the flags of the Itsekiris and Aniomas, respectively. Rotation has also been perfected in states like Cross Rivers, where all three governors since 1999—Donald Duke, Liyel Imoke and Ben Ayade came from different Senatorial zones in the state. The same obtains even in culturally homogeneous entities like Enugu, Bayelsa, Anambra and so on. Against the background of the serial marginalisation of Okunland from the political scheme in Kogi State, leaders from the area have on several occasions, canvassed the creation of Okun State, intended to accommodate Okun people in Kwara, Ekiti and Ondo States bound together by the same sociology, culture, tongues and worldview. These past eight years, the Igala have felt like fish out of water, relegated to the back up position of the Deputy Governor, whereas they hitherto called the shots”.
Kogi-born Lagos parliamentarian and running mate to late Audu in the ill-fated 2015 governorship election, James Abiodun Faleke, once declared: “Certainly, without Kogi West’s support, no zone can win a governorship election. Kogi West will present a formidable candidate and Kogi East and Central will support that candidate by God’s grace”.
It is hoped that Faleke and other Kogi West leaders realise that this is doable with no procrastination. But power is never served on the platter. Irrespective of power affiliations, Okun people must gird their loins for the proper plunge and push for Lugard House. Prejudices, animosities, jealousies and presumptuousness must be exorcised even from the onset. Distractions and diversions must be dispensed with, even from the starting blocks of the project. Okun people must approach this with a “never-say-die” and a “forward-ever” resolve until the tape is finally breasted.
The Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria recognises parity and equality of senatorial zones. As team players and a very cosmopolitan political elite, it is hoped that Kogi West people would unite behind a consensus and formidable candidate and remain faithful to taking their turn in 2027.
