The World Health Organization has revealed its list of more than 30 pathogens that are most likely to cause the next pandemic.Â
Among the most dangerous viruses and bacteria is H5N1Â bird flu, which is spreading in the US and which scientists fear could easily mutate to jump between humans.
There are also fears about the mosquito-borne Dengue fever, sometimes dubbed the ‘bone-breaking disease’ which is also spreading in the US at unprecedented levels.
And monkeypox, which caused a global epidemic in 2022, was also on the list, amid an outbreak of a deadlier and more infectious strain in Africa.
The above shows a selection of pathogens included in the list that researchers deemed had a ‘high’ likelihood of causing the next pandemic or major outbreak
More than half of the entries were new compared to the list from 2017, when the list was first published.
It also included Hantavirus, a virus that spreads among rodents, the mosquito-borne West Nile Virus, flu and Covid.
The scientists also added smallpox even though it is currently eradicated, fearing it could be accidentally released in a lab accident and then spread quickly because few people now have immunity against the virus.
And the rodent-borne Lassa fever, which can cause bleeding from the gums, eyes and nose and seizures in patients.
The list was compiled by 200 scientists from more than 50 countries after reviewing a shortlist of 1,600 bacterium and viruses.
Those marked as having ‘pandemic potential’ were highly transmissible and virulent — or able to cause serious disease in humans.
The diseases most dangerous were also those that had no vaccines or treatments available for patients.
Previously, the lists from 2017 and 2018 had only included about a dozen pathogens.
The list was updated because of climate change, deforestation and the growth in international travel, which may make other diseases more likely to cause a new outbreak (stock)
| Disease | Latin name | Â Risk level |
|---|---|---|
| Lassa Fever Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever Cholera Plague Shigellosis Salmonella Pneumoniae MERS; Middle East Respiratory Virus SARS; Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Ebola Marburg virus Zika virus Dengue fever Yellow fever Tick-borne encephalitis West Nile Virus Hantavirus Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Bird flu (H1 to H10) Swine flu (H1 to H3) Nipah virus SFTS Fever Rift Valley Fever Smallpox Pox virus Monkeypox Chikungunya virus Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Pathogen X Adenovirus Adenovirus 14 Hand, foot and mouth Lentivirus Borna disease virus Hepatitis C Hepatitis E Herpes HPV Parvovirus |
Mammarenavirus lassaense Mammarenavirus juniense Vibrio Cholerae Serotype 1 Yersinia Pestis Shigella dysenteriae Salmonella enterica Klebsiella pneumoniae Subgenus Merbecovirus Subgenus Sarbecovirus Orthoebolavirus zairense Orthoebolavirus sudanense Orthoebolavirus zikaense Orthoflavivirus denguei Orthoflavivirus flavi Orthoflavivirus encephalitis Orthoflavivirus nilense Orthohantavirus sinnombreense Orthonairovirus haemorrhagiae Alphainfluenzavirus influenzae Alphainfluenzavirus influenzae Henipavirus nipahense Bandavirus dabieense Phlebovirus riftense Orthovirus variola Orthovirus vaccinia Orthovirus monkeypox Alphavirus chikungunya Alphavirus venezuelan Pathogen X Recombinant Mastadenovirus Mastadenovirus blackbeardi serotype 14 Enterovirus coxsackiepol Lentivirus humimdef1 Orthobornavirus Borneense Orthohepadnavirus hominoidei C Paslahepevirus balayani 3 Herpesviridae Papillomaviridae Protoparvovirus carnivoran |
HIGHÂ HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH low-medium low-medium medium medium low low low low low low |
But researchers have now expanded the list amid more opportunities for diseases to spread from animals to humans and between areas of the world.
Urbanization and deforestation has boosted contact between wildlife and humans, the scientists said, while more international travel generates new opportunities for a disease to find its way to new areas of the world.
There are also concerns that climate change could fuel an outbreak by leading to diseases spreading into new areas.
Dr Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, who led the report, told Nature: ‘The prioritization process helps identify critical knowledge gaps that need to be addressed urgently.’
Other illnesses also included in the report were five bacteria, including cholera — which can cause stomach upsets — and Yersinia pestis — the bacteria behind the plague.
Those remaining on the list also included the bat-borne Nipah virus, which can cause severe swelling in the brain.Â
For many of the diseases included in the list, only sporadic cases have been diagnosed so far.
But researchers warned that if they gained mutations making them better able to spread between people, they could spark an outbreak.
Most of the diseases are carried by ticks, bats, mosquitoes, rodents or by people — often spread via respiratory droplets.
To become a pandemic, a virus or bacteria will need to spread between humans, be detected worldwide and cause illness.
