John Swinney has been mocked for enjoying the “shortest honeymoon in political history”. The new SNP leader only took over the party leadership on Monday. But already, two new damning polls have already rocked the SNP and Mr Swinney’s leadership.
The latest polls show Mr Swinney’s win in the contest to succeed Humza Yousaf has done little to stem the haemorrhaging of SNP support.
A survey of Westminster voting intentions of 1,000 Scots by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, which took place on Wednesday and Thursday, indicates the SNP is on track to lose 30 MPs at the next general election. Another poll by Savanta also shows the SNP losing more than half its MPs.
In both polls Labour has surged into the lead. According to the Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey, Labour has its largest lead of any polling in Scotland since 2014 at 38 percent – up five points from last month. The Scottish Nationalists are lagging behind on 31 percent.
Political scientist and polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice said that if this polling was repeated at a general election, the SNP could crash from 43 seats to just 13, while Scottish Labour would jump from two MPs to 33.
Professor Curtice said: “The most interesting question to ask is whether the installation of Swinney has proven an immediate remedy for the SNP’s difficulties or perhaps it has done little more than stem the rot occurring under Yousaf. It looks more like the latter.”
Scottish Tory chairman Craig Hoy said: “Voters know John Swinney just spells more of the same – with the same recycled Cabinet and failing policies of the Sturgeon and Yousaf eras – which is why this appears to be the shortest honeymoon in political history.
“John Swinney has made it clear he and his government will not just continue, but accelerate, their relentless and divisive push for independence. He is picking up where he left off during his time in Nicola Sturgeon’s failed government, focusing only on governing in the Nationalists’ interests, rather than the national interest.”
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “Our findings underline the major uphill task John Swinney faces. The SNP is likely to fall quite far from the 43 seats they hold at the next general election. Even if Swinney can begin to turn things around, the spectre of Sturgeon and everything her time in power is now associated with will continue to hang over the party and hamper any recovery.”
During his first week in the job, Mr Swinney has sent confusing messages over independence. He scrapped the minister for independence post in his government but also insisted that Scotland could quit the UK within five years. He also insisted that the SNP‘s strategy for independence is still based on winning a majority of seats at the forthcoming general election.
At a rally, Mr Swinney told supporters: “This week marks a new chapter for the SNP – we are united in delivering the very best for Scotland.”
Mr Hoy swiftly rebuked this, saying: “It will be a surprise to no-one that John Swinney will continue to push the SNP’s separation fixation and live up to his title as continuity leader.”
