The hosts’ hopes of winning a first title since the final Five Nations rugby campaign way back in 1999 have been rocked by the loss of star captain Sione Tuipulotu, who will miss the entire tournament with a pectoral muscle injury suffered in training.
The fitness issues are really biting now for Scotland and are rather serving to dampen enthusiasm around what was expected to be a highly-competitive campaign from Gregor Townsend’s talented team.
Hoping to exploit that injury misery this weekend is an Italy side who narrowly beat the Scots 31-29 last March to record their first home Six Nations win for six years.
The Azzurri made swift progress under head coach Gonzalo Quesada, denied a shock first victory in France by the width of a post before seeing off Wales in the wooden spoon decider in Cardiff, avoiding finishing bottom of the standings for the first time in nine years.
Although their results for the rest of the year were inconsistent, this Italy squad is packed full of talent and they will have their sights set on another attempted push up the table.
Scotland vs Italy date, kick-off time and venue
Scotland vs Italy is set for a 2:15pm GMT kick-off on Saturday February 1, 2025. The match takes place at Murrayfield Stadium in Edinburgh.
How to watch Scotland vs Italy
TV channel: The game is being shown live in the UK free-to-air on BBC One, with coverage beginning at 1:15pm GMT.
Live stream: Free live coverage is also available online via the BBC Sport website and BBC iPlayer.
Scotland vs Italy team news
There’s simply no sugarcoating it – Tuipulotu’s injury is an absolute disaster for Scotland and could genuinely be the difference between them producing a potential title push and merely just making up the numbers.
He is not the only player Townsend has lost for the duration, with the likes of Scott Cummings, Josh Bayliss and Dylan Richardson also sidelined, plus a host of others including Adam Hastings, Cameron Redpath, Kyle Steyn, Max Williamson, Andy Onyeama-Christie and Ben Muncaster. Finn Russell and Rory Darge are now serving as co-captains.
Colossal blow: Scotland will be missing influential captain Sione Tuipulotu for the entire Six Nations
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However, Duhan van der Merwe, Jonny Gray, Grant Gilchrist and Luke Crosbie have all now been passed fit, while Scotland drafted a number of late call-ups into their wider squad this week including Alexander Masibaka, Ollie Smith, Euan Ferrie, Ewan Johnson and Cameron Henderson.
For Italy, there is no Louis Lynagh after the former Harlequins star underwent knee surgery this month, though half-backs Stephen Varney and Tommaso Allan have both earned recalls along with the fit-again prop Giosue Zilocchi.
Mirco Spagnolo is suspended and Andrea Zambonin injured, with the likes of Simone Gesi and Luca Rizzoli called up.
Scotland vs Italy lineups
Both Gregor Townsend and Gonzalo Quesada are expected to name their starting teams for round one on Thursday.
Scotland vs Italy head to head (h2h) history and results
Italy’s dramatic win in Rome last year ended a run of 13 consecutive losses against Scotland dating back to 2015, when they last triumphed at Murrayfield.
Scotland vs Italy prediction
Scotland must quickly shake off the enormous disappointment of Tuipulotu’s injury, though it’s easier said than done – few players anywhere in the Six Nations are as important to their team’s cause.
The mounting fitness setbacks will be of increasing concern to Townsend, who will be looking for sustained consistency from his side this year after an ultimately disappointing fourth-place finish in 2024 that was followed by a low-key summer tour of the Americas and an autumn series in which they thrashed Fiji and Portugal and saw off resurgent Australia having been brushed aside by South Africa.
Double trouble: Italy boast an excellent midfield pairing in Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Menoncello
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Italy were much improved 12 months ago, though lost to Samoa after that and were thrashed by Argentina, also only narrowly squeezing past Georgia after more convincing wins over Tonga and Japan and a 29-11 loss to the All Blacks in Turin.
It’s still difficult to know at times exactly which Azzurri side you are going to get on any given day, but in Juan Ignacio Brex and 2024 Six Nations Player of the Tournament Tommaso Menoncello they boast one of international rugby’s most electric midfield duos, ably supported by the likes of Ange Capuozzo.
We expect Scotland to prevail here, but it might be a close-run contest for long stretches before the hosts likely pull away late on to kick off their campaign with victory before hosting defending champions Ireland in round two and then going to Twickenham for the latest instalment of the Calcutta Cup rivalry.
Scotland to win, by 10 points.
Scotland vs Italy match odds
Odds via Betfair (subject to change).
