More than 77 million votes have already been cast, but what do we know about the early vote?
Early voting tends to favour the Democrats but so far in 2024, the Republican vote is up compared to 2020. We also know that the polls generally tend to underestimate Republican support. So what does this mean for the result?
Well, Betfair’s Sam Rosbottom has been on a tour of the US for the last few weeks in the run-up to today’s vote. He said: “During my tour across the Blue Wall, a local in Milwaukee told me I should look up Door County if I really wanted to know who was going to win the election. He wasn’t wrong. The voters in the ‘Cape Cod of the Midwest’ have correctly backed every winning president this century.
“Wisconsin has voted for last four Presidents, so there’s a good chance that whoever wins in Door County will also win Wisconsin and take the White House.
“With a population of just over 30,000 the results in Door County should come in relatively quickly.”
Pennsylvania is also expected to be a key area to watch, where you’ll want to look out for an early Republican lead before mail in votes are counted.
Sam said: “Traditionally, Democrats are more likely to vote early and via mail ballots, so we could see the market heavily shift in Trump’s favour before a potential blue wave of early votes which swing things. That is what happened four years ago.
“Republican early registration is up on four years ago, but will it be enough to subside any potential blue wave of late counted ballots? We’ll find out in the next 24 hours.”
