A Very Rude Awakening?

At the heart of almost every Andy Pollak political OP is the contention that a 50%+1 border poll for re-unification will result in “a very rude awakening,” for the south, i.e., widespread loyalist violence which will result in many, perhaps the majority, coming to regret they ever favoured re-unification.

He insists there must be a reconciliation between unionists and nationalists before a border poll is ever considered. This is, at least, an advance on his previous position that a much larger than 50% majority should be required for reunification.

He also ignores the fact that the last thing political unionism wants is a nationalist/unionist reconciliation as that would completely undermine their case for partition. Why have two states on the island if we are all one happy family?

We should not expect political unionism to concede defeat before a border poll is even called. Indeed, we should respect their sincere conviction that a United Ireland is a very bad idea and that they will not, simply, be bought off by the promise of greater prosperity if re-united with the south.

What political unionism wants is not reconciliation, but a conversion whereby many in the Catholic/Nationalist/Republican tradition come to concede that British sovereignty is the best way forward for Northern Ireland.

And to be fair, they have had some success in persuading some, mainly middle class, Catholics who are doing quite well under the current dispensation that British sovereignty isn’t so bad and that the risks inherent in constitutional change may not be worth it. The APNI voter base reflects that.

An exacerbation of violence is indeed a worry, but I would like to suggest that a different more positive scenario is more likely. Let us envisage a future where:

1. Politics in Northern Ireland continues to be frozen in sectarian aspic, in part institutionalised by the designation requirements of the GFA. It thus remains utterly dysfunctional.
2. Northern Ireland continues to fall further behind southern England and Ireland in terms of public services, economic development and living standards.
3. At some point, perhaps unexpectedly, the natural constitutional inertia of the UK is broken by some sudden crisis. It could be a political crisis in Northern Ireland; a severe recession in Britain; a desire for improved relations with the EU, the USA and Ireland; a catastrophic global event; or an entirely opportunistic response to a political crisis in Britain.
4. Questions suddenly arise as to what value Great Britain derives from the link with Northern Ireland in general, and the Barnett subvention in particular. A political decision is made to hold a border poll, perhaps for no better reason than as a diversionary tactic from some other, more damaging political reality. Politics can be a base and craven business sometimes.
5. The border poll narrowly supports a United Ireland to the surprise, shock, and dismay of many. Perhaps only because nationalists were better at reaching out to “others” than unionists. Perhaps only because the government of Ireland made a great effort to present a coherent case for what a United Ireland would look like and how it would benefit the vast majority – while the UK government made little effort to present a comparable case.
6. But rather than the violence and mayhem as feared by Andy and predicted by many, the Irish government make every effort to be welcoming to both northern unionists and nationalists and make good the promises they made leading up to the border poll.
7. The vast majority of northerners of all persuasions respect the democratic decision of the majority (however narrow) and the good faith efforts of the Irish government to implement the promises made.
8. There is some violence, particularly emanating from some hard-line loyalist areas, but it is nowhere near the scale of the Troubles and rejected by the vast majority of unionists. Indeed, it re-enforces the resolve of all, north and south, to ensure that the democratic process is respected and implemented.
9. Good intelligence and security cooperation between the Irish and British security forces ensures that major atrocities are avoided. The expectation of a certain amount of violence is already “baked in the cake” of both nationalist and unionist communities and what happens is largely discounted as “a few criminal elements who should be dealt with through the criminal justice system”.
10. Elections to the Dáil are held, and the results are not vastly different from what we see in current elections north and south. Perhaps the TUV will refuse to take part at all, instead choosing to mount spurious legal challenges to their validity. Perhaps the DUP will campaign on an abstentionist platform. Perhaps the UUP will take up their seats in opposition but refuse to have anything to do with being part of an all-Ireland coalition government. Perhaps the APNI and SDLP will become part of a multi-party governing coalition. Perhaps Sinn Féin, as the largest party in all of Ireland will lead the next government. Perhaps it will be a “rainbow coalition” of various parties north and south not including Sinn Féin.
11. After that, it is largely a question of whether the new government delivers on its promises of good government to the benefit of the vast majority. If not, it will be turfed out and replaced at a subsequent election. Such is the nature of politics in a democracy.

The above is all speculation, but I would posit that it is as least as likely as the doomsday scenario painted by Andy Pollak and others if a border poll were carried without a reconciliation between political unionism and nationalism: Something I view as an entirely unrealistic pre-condition for a border poll.

It should also be noted that I make no assumptions about demographic change, or a requirement for any unionist party to change their policies, priorities, or constitutional preferences. Indeed, very little may change in the short term, other than elections taking place to the Dáil and unionists having the opportunity, should they so wish, to take part in a sovereign Irish coalition government.

Regardless of the tactics adopted, I see unionists, either individually or collectively, having an increasing influence on the shape of government policies and the direction of travel of the country as a whole. This may not be to the liking of everyone either north or south but will accepted as part of the new all Ireland democratic process.

Indeed, social and economic conservatives in the south may well welcome the reinforcement of their ranks by more socially and economically conservative unionists and nationalists from the north. Republicans and socialists may be dismayed that their social and economic policy preferences may no longer have quite the influence they once had in the south.

But that’s democracy, and it should not be forgotten that the political views of all could change over time and no longer correspond to current stereotypes or patterns. Perhaps a radical unionist party might even emerge, one still committed to stronger links with Britain, but determined to make a success of the new dispensation in Ireland.

I would actually expect to see an explosion of innovation, creativity and productivity in an increasingly diverse and vibrant society, north and south.

Ireland has changed more in the last 50 years than any other country I know well. Openness to foreign direct investment, EU membership, higher levels of education, soaring economic prosperity, population growth, immigration and social change have transformed the country out of all recognition when compared to the dismal, dirt poor, declining, emigration plagued, largely rural, backward, arch conservative and fearful society I grew up with in my youth.

One of the great achievements of the Irish political system has been that it has managed this massive and rapid process of change relatively well, current problems with infrastructural and public services deficits notwithstanding. From inauspicious beginnings in fraught independence negotiations with the British government, a civil war, rampant poverty, almost zero indigenous industries, an economic war with Britain, the “Emergency”, domination by one church, and the Troubles, it has transformed Ireland into a modern democracy without the episodes of fascism and mass civil unrest experienced in many other countries.

An unarmed police force was created in the immediate aftermath of the civil war and there was an orderly transfer of power between the winners and losers of the civil war barely a decade after that war had concluded. Even the endemic industrial unrest of the 1960’s and 1970’s was eventually resolved by a system of National Pay Agreements which brought governments, employers, unions, and community and voluntary organisations together leading to agreements which covered an ever increasing range of issues on pay, pensions, taxation, investment, social benefits and services and ensured various influential but warring interest groups ended up singing from the same hymn sheet.

I have no doubt that our political and public service systems have the skills and experience to manage a transition to a united Ireland and any associated disorder very capably as well. Massive changes for all would be involved, but the Irish people have shown a resilience and willingness to adapt as good as any I have seen elsewhere in the world.

Ireland has moved from being a byword for religious conservatism, industrial conflict, economic inefficiency, individual laziness, and proneness to splits, and is now recognised as one of the best countries in the world to live and to do business in. It has a remarkably stable political system, long term policy consistency, high levels of education, good conflict resolution systems, an independent judiciary, and excellent social cohesion (notwithstanding some very small scale riots and criminal activity).

My concern with the doomsayers who prophecy that, in the absence of a prior “reconciliation,” re-unification could be a nightmare of violence, political and economic dysfunction, and unresolved inter-communal tensions, is that they could unintentionally encourage such an outcome by promoting the idea that such violence could effectively wield a veto on the democratic process and prevent re-unification from being a success.

Ireland has overcome much greater problems in the past and the problems of re-unification pale into insignificance in comparison to the current conflicts in Gaza and the Ukraine. There is no magic sauce needed to make a re-unification a success. All it takes is a competent government, good planning, lots of communal good will, and the ordinary processes of conflict resolution in a mature democracy.

Ireland has all the resources, skills, and experience to do this in abundance. Let us not sell ourselves short.

Frank Schnittger is the author of Sovereignty 2040, a future history of how Irish re-unification might work out. He has worked in business in Dublin and London and, on a voluntary basis, for charities in community development, education, restorative justice and addiction services.