One year ago today at Tory conference in Manchester, the then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak cancelled the northern leg of HS2, putting the UK’s flagship rail project out of its misery after a decade of delay and spiralling costs.
At the time, Labour described the decision as symbolic of 13 wasted years under the Conservatives. Others mourned it as the moment that marked the death of Britain as the once mighty superpower that ‘built the world’.
Today, Labour are back in government off the back of a manifesto that promised to ‘Get Britain Building’. What can they learn from the HS2 debacle to make Britain great again at delivering major infrastructure?
In recent years, infrastructure projects across the west have all been hit by inflation and pressures on public spending. But there are four distinctly British lessons Labour should learn from HS2’s failure:
- Our planning system is broken
- Regulators can lose sight of the big picture
- Major infrastructure projects often lack clear political leadership
- It has become far too expensive to build in Britain
None of these structural issues are exclusive to HS2.
Britain’s road projects have the highest cost overruns relative to comparable countries. UK rail construction is twice as expensive compared to the global average. We haven’t built a reservoir for 30 years. Our last nuclear plant was finished in the 90s and Hinkley C will be six times more costly per megawatt of capacity than its Korean equivalent. What’s gone wrong?
A planning system that empowers NIMBYs
In 2008, the Planning Act aimed to create a separate system for “nationally significant infrastructure projects.”
But since 2012 the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) has found consenting times increased 65% and the rate of judicial review has spiked to nearly 60% from a long-term average of 10%.
Labour is trying to wrestle back control. The Environment Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister sent a letter to environmental groups urging them to work with rather than against their reforms. This is the start of a long battle to come.
David Cameron promised planning reform during his premiership but was held back by rebel MPs and councillors.
Are we regulating right?
I know firsthand how carefully independent regulators work to safeguard the environment. But it’s also clear that this work has led to delays that lose sight of the big picture.
The greatest threat to nature is climate change – slowing down green transport and energy projects slows down decarbonisation gains.
Britain Remade recently highlighted Hinkley Point C’s environmental impact assessment ran to 31,401 pages, – possibly requiring an ‘acoustic fish deterrent’ (speakers) to protect 112 salmon at a cost of millions.
A proposal to reopen a railway between Bristol and Portishead required a 79,187 page application, including 17,912 pages of environmental assessment.
Labour has said little about regulatory reform, but should ensure regulators are sufficiently resourced and explore how regulations can be streamlined not to delay core missions.
HS2 suffered from a failure of leadership
With allegations of budget coverups, Ministers at times seemed in denial about spiralling costs, because admitting errors would be politically damaging – kicking the can down the road seemed the only option.
From the beginning the political messaging – stressing speed over capacity (which was actually needed) was designed to sell the project. But it gave the impression that HS2 was optional leading to relatively low levels of support.
In comparison, over the past year Starmer and Reeves have been using the consistent message that “Getting Britain Building” is not optional – but essential for growth and “national renewal”. Binary messaging that building = good and blocking = bad could keep backbenchers on side.
But message (and policy) discipline is key. It is confusing that since the election, on more than one occasion ministers have pledged to get building one day, and considered cutting investment the next. As Labour adjusts from the freedom of opposition to the short-term pressures of government they need to hold firm.
The Institute of Civil Engineers (ICE) said HS2 Ltd lacked a coherent organisation model and the civil service lacked technical and delivery expertise. It’s possible the project was simply too big – initial costs being roughly the size of Sri Lanka’s economy.
ICE are optimistic about Labour’s new National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA) – merging the NIC and the Infrastructure and Projects Authority to combine strategy with on the ground delivery.
Finally, Labour needs to demand better value for money
HS2 seemed to lack proper budget oversight. Appeasing NIMBYs meant spending millions digging 100km+ of tunnels – costing ten times more than building above ground – and unnecessary gold-plated features like vent shafts that looked like farm huts.
As the widely read ‘Foundations’ essay points out – the HS2 section we end up building will be between four and eight times more expensive per mile than French or Italian high speed rail. Labour needs to stop taxpayers being ripped off.
Increasing private investment is the other side of the coin. The UK has been at the bottom of the G7 for investment in 24 out of the last 30 years. Here positive signs are being shown by Rachel Reeves’ National Wealth Fund.
Recap on all of the news and debate from party conference 2024 by LabourList here.
The anniversary of HS2’s failure is a reminder of the last decade’s wasted potential. But nothing teaches better than failure.
For the project itself, Labour should support the private sector plan backed by the Mayors to connect Birmingham to Manchester. And obviously a proper link to Euston must be sorted.
Beyond, Labour must relentlessly pursue planning reform to bring power back to the majority, realign regulation to see the big picture, ensure proper leadership and value for money.
HS2 doesn’t need to haunt Britain forever. If Labour learns the right lessons it can rebuild Britain.
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