Abigail Mainon is Deputy Chairman Membership of the Welsh Conservative Party and is standing as the Conservative Candidate for the seat of Aberafan Maesteg.
With a month to go until polling day the current predictions see a near wipe out in Wales, showing just three of the fourteen 2019 seats to stay blue, this includes Monmouth teetering on the edge between the Conservatives and Labour depending on which poll you look at. But is it over for the Tories in Wales? I don’t quite think so.
A planned visit back home this week to North Wales to celebrate a family birthday became an impromptu campaign tour, out on the doorsteps supporting in all of the current Conservative held seats across the North Wales coast.
It is worth noting that we have already lost a number of conservative seats such as Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South to the boundary changes, seeing Wales’s 40 seats reduced to just 32 for this election.
You would think, given polling stating all of our North Wales seats will change hands, that spirits would be dampened. But that is far from the feeling on the ground: the former MPs and their teams are ready for a fight.
Nor is this election isn’t necessarily a clear red on blue battle in Wales; it’s seemingly blue on.. blank. Blank being a plague of voter apathy and the sheer number of undecided voters presently parked on the democratic fence, holding the fate of the country in their ballot papers.
These Welsh voters are unhappy with the wider Westminster picture but, given Welsh Labour’s record of over 25 years in devolved government, they aren’t rushing to switch sides; some are perhaps considering Reform but also don’t want to see their vote wasted.
Welsh Labour oversees the worst educational outcomes in the UK, the longest NHS waiting times, and a nanny-state mentality best illustrated (along with their restrictive management of the Covid pandemic lockdowns) by the 20mph default speed limit introduced late last year.
It isn’t a natural fit for the 2019 Brexit voters, no matter how tired they are of the status quo in Westminster. But will they turn out for us again or sit this one out?
On the doorsteps right across the North Wales coast I’ve encountered many undecided 2019 swing voters; a few not voting at all, but most are waiting for something to come from us to seal the deal. They don’t want to vote Labour but do want change; a Starmer government isn’t the answer, but our offer still isn’t quite there yet.
Whilst this election is being fought in the centre ground, this isn’t to rule out us getting votes over from some frustrated Labour supporters, following the increasing leftward direction of travel from the powers that be in Cardiff Bay.
Notably, I met a life-long labour voter in Holyhead who is appalled by Welsh Labour’s 20mph policy and the expansion of the Senedd (with an additional 36 members to be introduced on a closed list system for the 2026 elections) when the money can be better spent on things that matter directly to the people such as the NHS and supporting the economy.
He said would never have dreamed of voting Conservative, but after speaking directly with Virginia Crosbie (the sitting Conservativve) on the doorstep, he is giving his vote to her, stating her tireless work on Wylfa Nuclear Power Station and bringing jobs back to the island as the determining factor.
The British levelling up and shared prosperity funds have served the North Wales coast well; assisted by lobbying from the outgoing MPs, millions have been allocated to the local authorities and we have seen investment into community projects. These range from the Rhyl markets revamp and an athletic track refurbishment in Colwyn Bay to getting the go ahead for wider economic boosters, such as the Anglesey Freeport and electrification of the North Wales mainline.
But this be enough to hold these marginal seats? Our incumbent teams have just four weeks to plead the case it should be. So far, the “U’s” have it.
