Angus Parsad-Wyatt is Chief Executive of ConservativeHome.
This week we’ve driven over 600 miles to cover six constituencies. In part one yesterday we reported on some key battles with Labour (and threats from Reform) across the industrial Midlands. Today we bring you the latest from Surrey.
Later in the week we travel to Surrey. That this county – which elected Conservative MPs in every single one of its eleven constituencies at the 2019 general election – is noteworthy for the number of key battles and seats which may change hands, shows just how bad things have become for the Conservatives over the last five years.
Arising from its historically ‘safe’ status, Surrey has had a disproportionate number of current and former ministers as MPs in this most recent Parliament: Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Michael Gove, Kwasi Kwarteng, Claire Coutinho, and Chris Grayling.
From that list only two (Hunt and Coutinho) are seeking re-election. The others perhaps saw that the writing was on the wall with their majorities falling, and the Liberal Democrats on the march.
As just one example: at the 2015 general election, thanks in large part to the collapse of support for the Lib Dems post-coalition, Dominic Raab won Esher and Walton with 63 per cent of the vote and a majority of 28,616. Just four years later, that majority was slashed to 2,743.
ConservativeHome visited three constituencies – Godalming and Ash, represented by Jeremy Hunt; Esher and Walton, where local councillor John Cope is hoping to rebuild some of Raab’s previous majority; and Surrey Heath, where ConservativeHome contributor Ed McGuiness won the selection to replace Michael Gove, who surprised many with his announcement that he would not seek re-election.
Godalming and Ash
In the Godalming & Ash constituency, we join the Chancellor as he speaks to voters in the village of Cranleigh. There is something quite humbling, and an important facet of our democracy, about seeing someone who has spent nineteen years as the local MP, of which more than half as a Cabinet minister, introduce themselves to their electorate:
“Hello, I’m Jeremy, the Conservative candidate to be your MP.” “Oh yes, we recognise you” says one woman as she opens her door, later pledging to support Hunt. A retired couple across the road however say they are genuinely undecided how they will vote.
“We’ve worked all our lives, saved, but things are so expensive now – they seem to be getting worse not better. But then we have no idea what Labour would do, they could be worse.”
A pattern is emerging in this campaign – Conservative voters who are unhappy with where the country (or at least their personal finances) is at, but worry about what Labour would do, especially if they are given a massive majority. “But then you’re a good man, so we might vote for you but ignore the Party!” the lady wryly tells Hunt.
In seats like this, where Hunt’s majority is under 9,000, every vote will count, so a track record, name recognition, and a personal vote could be the difference between holding on or a major Portillo moment. Chancellors do not tend to lose their seats. Yet.
The Prime Minister surprised many people – including some his own ministers – when he called the election on 22 May. Did the Chancellor know? “I have known for about six months that the Prime Minister was keeping the option on the table of going to the country before the summer.”
Perhaps rephrase the question – did Hunt know before the Palace? “Yes, a few days before.”
That likely explains the ‘Labour’s Tax Rises’ speech that he gave on 17 May – a set piece drawing dividing lines with Labour by a Chancellor who knew the election was about to be called.
Hunt has taken advantage of this advance knowledge to build a strong campaign here in Godalming and Ash:
“We have two or three campaign sessions per day, we are really pushing those undecideds and trying to speak to as many people as possible. Farage is cutting through with some voters, but you speak to them and they switch back to backing the Conservatives because they don’t want a Lib Dem MP who will back Starmer and want to rejoin the EU.”
Hunt has seemingly come a long way from suggesting a second referendum and staying in the single market – but playing both sides makes sense when you are trying to win round disgruntled Conservatives who might vote Reform, and disgruntled Conservatives who might vote Liberal Democrat.
Surrey Heath
Up the road in Surrey Heath – a seat which includes the towns of Camberley, Bagshot and Chobham – we meet McGuiness, who was selected on 4 June to replace the retiring Levelling Up Secretary.
At the 2019 general election the Liberal Democrats fought hard here, hoping to unseat one of the key Vote Leave figures in the ‘Brexit Election’. They made a dent, reducing Gove’s majority by 6,500 votes, but he was comfortably returned with 59 per cent of the vote (to the Lib Dems’ 23 per cent).
“It’s been a whirlwind start to the campaign”, says McGuinness. “We’ve got teams out all the time, some days three or four sessions per day. This is a great association and we’re working to win.”
As in Godalming and Ash down the road, the ground game will be essential if the Conservatives are to convince enough voters to back them. But what is the message to convince undecideds to become Conservatives, and Conservatives to actually go out and vote? McGuinness declares:
“At a national level the Liberal Democrats have no clear or serious policies; and at a local level they have increased parking charges and made a number of unpopular decisions. A vote for them is a vote for Starmer, who will weald big power in a reckless way, especially in affluent areas like Surrey.”
Some voters in Chobham have a similar feeling about the Labour Party. An older lady outside the Co-op says she will be voting Conservative “despite everything that’s happened, for three reasons: i) I always have; ii) I don’t trust Labour with my pension; and iii) I can’t stand that Rayner woman.”
But others were much less supportive. A middle-aged husband and wife by the Basil & Blue café, who tell us they normally vote Labour, said they will be voting Lib Dem this time “to get rid of the Tories, because that is the only option in this seat”. Don’t tell the younger couple walking by the cricket pitch, who are voting Labour.
Esher and Walton
Crossing under the M25, ConservativeHome arrives in Esher and Walton, until recently represented by Raab, the former Deputy Prime Minister. John Cope, a local councillor and former UCAS Director, is hoping to cling on against a surging Liberal Democrat force who, as we said above, slashed more than 20,000 votes off the Conservative majority in 2019.
Cope was selected for this seat a year ago, and has an established campaign team as a result. He describes a Campaign Leaderboard in his campaign office which tracks supporters: “there’s about forty people on it, some have done more than ten sessions each, and we’ve done over seventy thousand deliveries, so we’re working hard.”
The Liberal Democrats seem confident that they can win this seat this time around, buoyed by the collapse in the Conservative vote share nationally, and their ability to bus activists in from neighbouring safe Lib Dem seats like Kingston, represented by Davey.
“Our vote is holding up, and there’s a lot of people around here who are terrified of what a Labour government might do. Plus they are feeling harassed by the Lib Dems – one woman told us she’d had seven leaflets and three visits in two weeks”, Cope tells us.
Local factors are always worth considering in marginal seats too, and he explains that the Lib Dem decision to remove free parking and increase parking charges by 20 per cent caused a collapse in footfall in local shopping centres, upsetting a number of business owners. As Cope is the Conservative group leader on the council, the Liberal Democrats also targeted him in the local elections earlier this year:
“They fought really hard to unseat me, threw everything at my ward, and in the end they only knocked off thirty votes; meanwhile their leader lost his seat and they lost control of the council.”
So there’s hope for Cope. On one hand that the Liberal Democrats threw everything at this seat five years ago, hoping to scalp Raab, and were unsuccessful raises the possibility that it may be a tall order to repeat the trick again.
But the national picture is very different this time around, and it may be a case of Cope winning the battle at the local elections in May, only for the Lib Dems to win the war on 4 July.
Next week we will be bringing you the latest from Wales, plus more of those Tory/Lib-Dem battles from South-West England.
