Angus Parsad-Wyatt is the Chief Executive of ConservativeHome.
Welcome to the first edition of ConservativeHome’s Campaign Notebook – our weekly journey through the Conservatives’ general election campaign.
Over the next five weeks, we’ll be travelling the length and breadth of the UK, joining campaign teams in more than 20 constituencies, and offering an insider’s perspective from the frontlines of the electoral battle.
From the streets of seemingly safe suburbs to the mews of metropolitan marginals, we’ll be bringing you a snapshot of what’s happening around the country – from what’s being said on the doorstep, and what is (or isn’t) being featured on leaflets; to how energised activists are, and how candidates feel about the campaign both locally and nationally.
Join us each week for your front-row seat to the ground game that could shape the future of our country.
We open our notebook in the super-marginal London/Essex border constituency of Chingford & Woodford Green – currently represented by Iain Duncan Smith, the highly respected former Leader of the Conservative Party.
When Duncan Smith was first elected to the old Chingford seat in 1992, his majority was nearly 15,000. It has since fluctuated up and down with the fortunes of the Conservative Party, but never lower than it is now – just 1,262 at the last election. This may surprise those readers old enough to remember Woodford once having a Conservative MP named Winston Churchill. But this area has not been immune to the demographic changes that have altered the electoral profile of seats on the outskirts of the capital.
ConservativeHome arrives in Chingford to find a campaign office bustling with volunteers preparing literature and bundling up deliveries ready to go out. It all feels slightly chaotic. The general election was only called a week ago, there’s a spending deadline coming up, and this is a highly marginal seat. But the chaos brings with it an energy and an enthusiasm for the fight ahead – as one young activist tells us “We’re throwing everything we can at this to get Iain over the line.”
That fight has also been made even more interesting this week, as Labour has just blocked their original candidate – Faiza Shaheen (who also stood against Duncan Smith here in 2019) – from standing. At the time of writing she is threatening to stand as an independent. A split in votes on the left would certainly be a gift to Duncan Smith’s re-election efforts, and may yet come to pass if Shaheen does run against Labour, the Greens, and Galloway’s Workers Party.
The pace of this election means new leaflets and letters are being written and printed almost daily, but the campaign team kindly provided us with two recent pieces of literature. One is a glossy ‘People’ magazine-style leaflet containing a mix of national messaging (one more time: ‘Clear Plan. Bold Action. Secure Future’) and local stories (levelling-up funding for Chingford Mount town centre, and a new banking hub).
No doubt many readers will have received a similar localised version in their constituencies. The other item is a letter from Duncan Smith to his constituents which takes a leaf from the Ben Houchen playbook with the tagline ‘A record of delivery, a promise of more’ and notably only mentions ‘Conservative’ once – something we may well see replicated in other constituencies throughout this campaign.
We take to the local high street and adjoining tree-lined avenues to speak to some of the voters who will decide their next Member of Parliament.
We meet a couple on their doorstep – “I’ve always voted Conservative my whole life, and I think Iain is a good MP here” the lady starts “But I am not happy with how things are going generally, and that National Service announcement put me off a bit.” When asked how she plans to vote, she says she will likely still vote Conservative because she would rather see Duncan Smith re-elected.
Her partner had a more mixed voting history, and is not sure what he will do on 4th July. “To be honest, I am now so disillusioned. Politics has become too reactive, not proactive, and there’s not enough difference between what each of the parties offers in terms of the day-to-day issues that matter to people.” He says he may well flip a coin to decide who gets his vote.
That apathy and disillusionment with politics as a whole is reflected by several other people we speak to. One young woman tells us she won’t be voting at all, as she feels none of the main parties are offering anything interesting for her; and an older gentleman on the high street says both the Conservatives and Labour over-promise and under-deliver, and anyone would have to be mad to want to be an MP, “although I like Iain Duncan Smith locally, just not his party’s politics”.
A lady out shopping tells us that she is a lifelong Labour voter but, surprisingly, she may not vote this time around as she doesn’t like Keir Starmer. “He’s a chameleon and disingenuous, and like the Conservatives he won’t do anything for the working class – he’s like Thatcher without the handbag.” The gentleman is however very much for turning.
Later, ConservativeHome catches up with Duncan Smith to get his thoughts on the campaign, and starts by asking him about the very recent news of Labour deselecting their candidate. “As far as I am concerned that is Labour’s own mess, and I’m not really going to comment on it. One of my favourite films is Coach Carter and I always use that line – “we play our game, not their game” – and that is what we are doing, focusing on our campaign, and our record locally.”
That ‘record of delivery’ tagline is core to this campaign’s strategy for holding on to such a marginal seat when the national polling is less than ideal. “Our campaign here is focused entirely on my work, my record, my profile, and delivering for people on local issues.” Sir Iain adds: “I secured the funding to rebuild Whipps Cross hospital; I’ve stood up for residents to fight the Mayor on ULEZ; and I’ve been working to save the library.”
But make no mistake, whilst Duncan Smith’s campaign is about what he has done for his constituents, this is not a one-man show. “I am fortunate to have huge activist support from locals and from neighbouring ‘unwinnable’ constituencies. We have a great base of deliverers, and some brilliant, active young councillors who work really hard.”
So is that strong, supportive team the secret to why, after thirty-two years as the MP, Duncan Smith is still fighting to win here? “I am standing again because I felt I owed it to the constituency, and to the team. That’s what I am about. Whenever I am asked what gets me out of bed in the morning, I say ‘It is the prospect of another fight!’”.
If Duncan Smith loses that fight for this seat on 4th July – as many expect he may well do – it will be less of a ‘Portillo Moment’, more a reflection of the wider Conservative Party’s failure to sufficiently engage with the younger and more ethnically-diverse voters which make up constituencies like this. If, however, Duncan Smith clings on, it will be thanks to thirty-two years of hard graft on behalf of the people of Chingford & Woodford Green, and a great deal of support from an energetic team of activists.
Next Friday we’ll be bringing you the second installment of the Campaign Notebook, as ConservativeHome heads to ‘Blue Wall’ Hertfordshire and the Midlands battlegrounds.
