The delusions of mystic Mogg and other Brexit diehards that the rewards will eventually come, are no longer tenable. Not only can we now measure the pitiful results and consequences, but they’re impossible to ignore.
Five years ago on January 31, 2020, the UK officially severed ties with the European Union. The promises spun by the Leave campaign were bold and far-reaching. Greater control of our borders, lucrative global trade deals, a better-funded NHS, and a stronger, more independent Britain. Yet half a decade of post-Brexit Britain, and it’s clear that while some of the chief proponents of the Leave campaign have prospered, the nation as a whole has paid a painful price.
The delusions of mystic Mogg and other Brexit diehards that the rewards will eventually come, are no longer tenable. Not only can we now measure the pitiful results and consequences, but they’re impossible to ignore.
NHS
Take the NHS. One of the most striking promises was the £350 million a week that would supposedly be freed up for the health service, emblazoned on Boris Johnson’s battle bus. Instead, the impact of Brexit has compounded the strain on an already overburdened NHS, affecting everything from staffing and supply chains to funding and public health policy.
A slowdown in recruitment from the EU and EFTA countries has led to shortages in essential healthcare staff, from doctors and nurses to dentists and care workers.
“The economic hit of Brexit combined with the worst cost of living crisis for a generation is reducing living standards creating additional need for health and care,” said Mark Dayan, Nuffield Trust’s Brexit programme lead, in a damning report about Brexit and the NHS.
Trade
Then there’s the issue of trade. We were promised frictionless trade and new, lucrative deals around the world. But in reality, the majority of the trade agreements signed post-Brexit are mere “rollovers” of deals that the UK already had as an EU member, with little new economic benefit to show. Many of these agreements are with nations with which the UK has minimal trade, offering little relief for the disruption caused by Brexit with supposed trading opportunities mired in bureaucracy and red tape.
Immigration
Brexit was also sold as a way to take back control over immigration. But since Brexit, immigration has soared to record levels. Net immigration, which hovered around 200,000 people annually pre-Brexit, skyrocketed to an unprecedented 745,000 in 2022. The points-based system introduced in 2021 removed the automatic right of EU citizens to come to the UK without a visa, yet the result has been severe worker shortages across a range of sectors. A joint report by the UK in a Changing Europe and the Centre for European Reform shows that the end of free movement has significantly contributed to labour shortages, particularly in low-skilled sectors like hospitality, retail, construction, and transportation.
Northern Ireland
Then there’s the unresolved issue of Northern Ireland, a constant shadow over Brexit. The Northern Ireland Protocol was designed to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland, ensuring that the peace process would not be jeopardised. But a report out this week warns that the ramifications of Brexit will become increasingly evident on the island of Ireland, as the UK diverges from the EU in areas not covered by the Protocol.
According to the think tank UK in a Changing Europe, areas not covered by the Northern Ireland Protocol, such as certain environmental protection standards or recognition of professional qualifications, will mean that the Northern Ireland border will become increasingly pronounced.
Rising ‘Bregret’
As the consequences of Brexit become impossible to ignore, the national mood has become one of ‘Bregret.’ The number of Britons who think Brexit was the right decision has hit a new low, as a new YouGov poll shows. Just three in 10 Britons (30 percent) say that it was right for the UK to vote to leave the EU, compared to 55 percent who say it was wrong.
Also speaking volumes about the growing doubts over the wisdom of the decision, was the news this week that all UK constituencies, including Nigel Farage’s Clacton, would prefer a trade deal with the EU over the US.
While the people are left to contend with the consequences, as the years pass, it’s increasingly evident that the primary beneficiaries of Brexit have been the political elites who championed it.
It seems there is no punishment for arguably betraying your country, or at the very least, committing a policy blunder on such a scale that it will reverberate for years to come.
Boris Johnson became PM
In his memoir published in 2019, former PM David Cameron argued that Johnson didn’t genuinely believe in Brexit. Instead, he backed the Leave campaign to boost his own political career.
Cameron criticised Johnson’s motivations, noting that he was eager to lead the Brexit charge to secure the party’s top spot, especially to prevent rival Michael Gove from seizing the crown.
Cameron also referred to Michael Gove, who was a cabinet minister at the time, as “a foam-flecked Faragist.”
The pair were “ambassadors for the expert-trashing, truth-twisting age of populism,” he wrote.
“Whichever senior Tory politician took the lead on the Brexit side – so loaded with images of patriotism, independence and romance – would become the darling of the party.”
Cameron also criticised Johnson’s use of the Vote Leave campaign bus adorned with the claim that leaving would mean £350m a week extra for the NHS.
“Boris rode the bus round the country, he left the truth at home,” wrote the former PM.
Despite his “Get Brexit Done” campaign mantra in 2019 and defeating Jeremy Corbyn in a landslide, Johnson failed to fulfil the promise.
As political scientist Brendon O’Leary wrote in an essay about Johnson’s downfall:
“Johnson did not get Brexit done. It is a continuing wound, a senseless collective act of self-harm which he encouraged; indeed, he directed the cutting.”
Michael Gove becomes Spectator editor
Michael Gove, a central figure in the governments of David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, stepped down from parliament at the 2024 general election. But instead of shunning the limelight and retiring quietly, Gove was named the new editor of the Spectator, just weeks after GB News backer Paul Marshall completed a £100m takeover of the right-wing magazine.
Despite gaining a reputation for enemy-making (even Liz Truss referred to him as a “snake” after he undermined her 45-day tenure by saying he would not vote for her budget), it emerged this week that Gove has been offered a peerage in Rishi Sunak’s resignation honours list. Then again, Gove did always stay faithful to Sunak, remaining one of his most staunch supporters during the final weeks of his premiership, so perhaps it’s not that surprising.
Rishi Sunak lands lucrative ‘side’ jobs
Talking of Rishi Sunak, another ardent Brexiteer, who said it pained him to go against the David Cameron and his ‘illustrious predecessor’ Lord Hague, by campaigning to leave the EU, but said he believed the country will be ‘freer, fairer and more prosperous’ if the public voted ‘out,’ has landed a job at Oxford and Stanford universities (yes both!)
Just last week, the former prime minister announced he would be joining the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government as a member of its World Leaders Circle.
He will also take up a visiting fellowship at the Hoover Institution, a think tank based at Stanford University in California.
This is as well as being MP for Richmond and Northallerton. Wow, what a remarkable trajectory, balancing academic roles with political life.
Jacob Rees-Mogg becomes a ‘sir’
Jacob Rees-Mogg, another ardent Brexiteer, who was accused of hypocrisy after encouraging investors to move to London when his City firm, Somerset Capitol Management, set up an investment fund in Ireland ahead of Britain’s EU exit, was given a knighthood by his old pal, Boris Johnson.
The former cabinet minister became a ‘Sir’ in the former prime minister’s 2023 birthday honours list.
Priti Patel and Andrea Jenkyns, both Johnson allies and Eurosceptics who supported the Leave campaign, also received gongs, becoming dames.
Nigel Farage our future PM?
But the most worrying of the lot is Nigel Farage. Now leading Reform UK, the self-styled Brexit architect, is so confident in himself that he told a packed party in Washington DC thrown in his honour, that he will become Britain’s next prime minister, and before 2030. He told the room overlooking the White House that Donald Trump’s victory isn’t just a victory for America but for the free world and expressed confidence that Reform’s rise would lead to a future in power.
His prediction marks a new goalpost from Farage for his own political ambitions. Then again, his refusal to retire from politics despite declaring that with Brexit he had completed his “life’s work,” a mission that had consumed “the best part of three decades,” suggests that the post-Brexit Britain Farage envisioned isn’t the utopia he promised.
Meanwhile, his party continues to climb in the polls. The first YouGov poll of 2025 found Reform is now in second place, just one point behind the Labour Party, while the Tories, under Kemi Badenoch, have been pushed into third place on 22 percent.
Kemi Badenoch
Then there’s Kemi Badenoch herself. An “anti-woke warrior” and fervent Brexiteer, Badenoch made waves within the party with her support for controversial policies like the Rwanda deportation plan.
But, as the party’s fourth leader in just over two years, it remains to be seen whether Badenoch will still be leader of the Tories heading into the next general election. One of her toughest tasks is avoiding further division between her own MPs – let alone the electorate.
Of course, there’s a long tradition of the Establishment not punishing failure. In 2015, a raft of failed former MPs was handed seats in the House of Lords, including the controversial Tory grandee Douglas Hogg. Viscount Hogg sparked outrage during an expenses scandal after it emerged, he had claimed £2,200 from taxpayers to clean his moat.
Even the former health secretary Andrew Lansley, whose Health and Social Care Act 2012 was described as maybe the most disastrous attempt of any Conservative government to decentralise and to allow local individual enterprise and autonomy, was handed a peerage, following a recommendation by David Cameron.
In politics, failure, it seems, is often rewarded with power and prestige rather than being penalised. And nowhere is this more evident than with Brexit, where the advocates prospered while the nation was brought to its knees.
Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is author of Right-Wing Watch
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