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Today is the final day of the King’s Speech debate in the House of Commons, meaning MPs will be voting in a series of divisions. And in a potential headache for Keir Starmer, commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle has selected an SNP amendment calling for the two-child benefit cap to be scrapped.
The government has been buffeted by an incipient Labour rebellion over the limit since Starmer first stepped foot onto Downing Street earlier this month — and, in truth, long before.
Starmer initially committed to upholding the cap, introduced by the Conservative government in 2017 and currently affecting 1.6 million children, in July 2023 as part of an interview with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. The revelation sparked immediate outrage among some Labour politicians, and not only from the usual suspects. After all, the cap — which restricts child tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in most households — was vociferously opposed by the Labour Party at the time of its introduction and implementation.
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Significantly then, today’s vote on the amendment will allow MPs unhappy with the policy an opportunity to rebel against the government line.
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Kim Johnson, who tabled a Labour backbenchers’ amendment to the King’s Speech on the two-child cap, has declared that scrapping it “would send a powerful message of hope to those who have put their trust in a Labour government to bring about the change we so desperately need”.
Johnson’s amendment wasn’t selected by the Speaker this afternoon — but she and her likeminded MPs, emanating mainly from Labour’s left flank, are expected to throw their weight behind the SNP draft.
Facing a parliamentary showdown over the cap then, (albeit one that Starmer’s significant majority should comfortably absorb), can the government’s position hold over the coming months? What is informing Starmer’s decision to maintain this position? And, finally, could anything persuade him to shift?
First of all, there exists an electoral rationale for keeping the cap. A YouGov poll released last week found six in 10 Britons support maintaining the limit, including 50 per cent of those who voted Labour in the last general election.
As such, even though scrapping the cap would see Starmer quash the rebellion in his party, doing so would force Labour to win the argument over welfare spending in the country and, crucially, versus the Conservative Party. One doubts it’s a battle shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves, who stresses Labour’s fiscal restraint in government, much covets.
Moreover, at this early stage in Starmer’s premiership, surrendering to an upstart rebellion on Labour’s left flank would reflect poorly on the government’s political strength.
Having witnessed the lows of Rishi Sunak’s administration, Starmer is expectedly averse to the optics of a Labour government being pushed and dragged around by its own MPs. Indeed, the Conservative Party would argue that any political capitulation to Labour’s left flank vindicates its fears — expressed during the election campaign — that Corbynista MPs would hold significant sway under Starmer.
In this regard, former shadow chancellor John McDonnell has been on the frontline of the rebellion over the two-child cap, and today outlined his intention to back the SNP amendment. Jeremy Corbyn, now an independent MP, is also expected to support the amendment.
Although many see this episode as a test of Starmer’s progressive credentials, therefore, the government likely interprets the rebellion as a test of its commitment to fiscal discipline, on one hand, and of its ability to control its party, on the other.
Significantly however, Starmer has attempted to take the sting out of the rebellion by setting up a government “task force” — co-chaired by education secretary Bridget Phillipson and work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall — with a remit to examine the reasons for child poverty.
For the time being, the government’s decision to set up a task force grants Starmer a rhetorical out — as he insists ministers will wait for an official report before unveiling a policy programme on child poverty.
It has even been speculated that the task force is itself a medium through which Starmer plans to plot a climbdown over the cap. The prime minister, in time, could announce a plan to scrap the two-child limit, but only after an official government vehicle (the recommendations of which will be Starmer’s to dictate) so advises.
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Ultimately, conducting policy in this manner would underline that policy in a Starmer-led government will be dictated top-down rather than bottom-up — while reaffirming Labour’s progressive credentials. In theory, the task force sees Starmer bring together — and therefore neutralise — competing party management, fiscal and ideological concerns.
Speaking on Monday morning, education secretary Bridget Phillipson said that dropping the two-child cap policy will be “considered” by the government in the coming months. No 10 as well as Phillipson’s successor on the morning media round today, Liz Kendall, have refused to repeat this language — but the direction of travel seems set.
After all, it isn’t just Keir Starmer’s usual detractors urging him to scrap the cap, but apparent allies too — including Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and, even, former prime minister Gordon Brown.
Additional instances of division could expedite any revelation of Starmer’s about-face on the two-child cap, but the Autumn Statement — assuming the task force reports in time — would seem a likely vehicle for scrapping the limit.
Lunchtime briefing
James Cleverly: ‘Reasonable chance’ I will run for Conservative leadership
Lunchtime soundbite
‘I am glad to see him enjoying opposition so much. Long may it continue’
— Speaking in the House of Commons, Yvette Cooper hits back at James Cleverly after his criticism of the government’s illegal migration plan.
It came as the Home Office announced the Bibby Stockholm barge is to be axed as asylum seeker accommodation.
Now try this…
‘Yvette Cooper could abandon law that criminalised peaceful protests’
The Guardian reports
‘“Pissed off” Labour MPs challenge Starmer over two-child benefit cap’
The i reports. (Paywall)
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Via Politico.
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