Charles Martin is an award-winning business student with political experience. He is reading Law at the University of Exeter.
One of the biggest events prior to the 2024 general election being called was the trouncing that the Conservatives had to endure in the local and mayoral elections.
The loss of many councils and mayoral positions, such as Andy Street in the West Midlands, can be argued to be the biggest catalyst triggering the early calling of the general election, with Ben Houchen in the Tees Valley being the only real consolation from such a dire situation.
I remember going into the local elections listening to former Chancellor George Osborne’s and former Shadow Chancellor Ed Ball’s podcast, Political Currency. They made a notable and intriguing point: why on earth did the Conservatives not put more effort into the London Mayoral Election?
There is no doubt that an astonishing win over Sadiq Khan in London would have sent a shockwave nationally and changed the entire optics of the national polls.
The most damning fact of all was that of all the elections since Boris Johnson was a candidate, this was the biggest opportunity for the Conservatives to triumph in London. It was clear that expanded ULEZ and high levels of knife crime had put Sadiq Khan on the backfoot, so why did the Conservatives not prevail?
The answer is in candidate selection, which the Conservatives had struggled with prior to the London Election, after initial front-runner Daniel Korski dropped out in June 2023. Susan Hall was then confirmed to be the Conservative candidate in July 2023.
Many critics had questions as to whether this candidate selection was what the Conservatives needed, considering the optics of the national polls. No matter what you think of Boris Johnson, there is no doubt that he had the charisma and public profile necessary to win elections such as these, which seemed to be the missing element from the London 2024 Conservative campaign.
This starts to make you wonder why the Tories could not identify a candidate with these necessary traits to send Sadiq Khan out of City Hall, especially considering the fact they seemed to be in no rush to select the initial candidate.
The Conservative campaign was great at identifying the failures of Labour’s record in London such as youth crime and ULEZ – however that is just half of it. Without a candidate who inspires the voters the campaign will never have what it takes to be successful, especially in a region such as London, which in recent years has been ever so much more sympathetic to Labour.
This failure could partly be owed to the fact that the national optics of the Conservative Party were in such a dire state, pouring resources into a campaign which has a high likelihood of not being successful was seen as not sensible, as a long general election campaign would need to be funded soon after the locals.
It would appear in hindsight that the Conservatives reached a point where even a strong local appeal could not save them, with Andy Street in the West Midlands being a key example of this. With this knowledge, it can be argued the Conservatives were right to put limited resources into the London campaign.
Despite this, it is hard to believe that a good candidate selection and triumph in London would not have reinvigorated the Conservatives chances of at least minimising electoral oblivion in the general election. If the Tories want any chance of returning straight back into government in 2029, they need to understand the significance of obtaining London.
It would send a clear message that the Conservatives are a serious choice once again, especially after the faith of the electorate had been lost in the previous election.
It would also allow the Conservatives to potentially put the nails in the Labour coffin a year before the general election, probing on issues prominent in the capital and declaring how the failures in London are a direct consequence of Labour in power.
This means identifying a candidate who has a track record for getting things done and also has that inspiring tone about them.
The only real success story from the 2024 mayoral elections was the retention of Tees Valley after a successful campaign by Ben Houchen.
It is crucial to look at the rationale as to why this actually was a successful campaign, even with the optics of the Conservative Party being in such a poor national position. Houchen has a track record of reinvigorating the local area and championing Tees Valley nationally, an area which had felt disregarded for some time. This sends a real message to the electorate that those who are in charge are a serious choice at the next election – a message which was heard loud and clear by the people of Tees Valley.
This message must also be sent to London.
A name which has been floating around as a potential Conservative candidate for London has been former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi. Being a former Cabinet Minister for many years, Zahawi is an example of a potential candidate with both a good political compass and public profile, both necessary qualities for the next candidate to have. Whoever is the final pick needs to have this appeal, as the Mayor of London election in 2028 can be the catalyst to send Keir Starmer out of Number 10, similar to what we have witnessed with the Conservatives getting heavily defeated in the 2024 local elections, then subsequently, the general election.
It is crucial that the process to find the right candidate is carried out with due diligence, however there is an underlying importance to have an established candidate longer than a year before the election, allowing for more time to press on key issues and really charge at Labour. This will create better resonance with the electorate, which is another fundamental aspect that the Conservatives were missing in the 2024 campaign.
Another factor which may make the next London mayoral election a winnable one is the fact Sadiq Khan may not run again on the Labour ticket, after successfully winning three consecutive terms in City Hall.
This means the optics of winning are all the that much greater, as the national optics combined with the uncertainty of a new Labour candidate could be a driving force to Tory success in the capital.
This can only be achieved if the Conservative Party’s new leader sets out a clear and comprehensive plan to return to government which has the mayoral elections, amongst other plans, incorporated at the heart of the Tory recovery agenda and valued as an integral piece of the equation – the mayoral elections could be the sucker punch which sends Labour packing.
