Could Cymru be a Conservative-free zone once again? Despite goings-on in the Senedd today, the upcoming general election looks set to turn Wales’ electoral map into a sea of red ‘gains’ and ‘holds’ thanks to a mixture of boundary changes and hard-fought local campaigns.
Last week saw the entire Welsh Labour family welcome UK leader Sir Keir Starmer to Monmouthshire at his first campaign stop in Wales.
Monmouth has not traditionally been rich Labour territory. It is one of the wealthiest parts of Wales, primarily rural and requires a significant 10% swing to win the seat from Conservative Secretary of State for Wales, David TC Davies. Sir Keir’s visit indicates the weight the party is putting on winning the seat. Labour has not held this seat since losing it nearly 20 years ago at the 2005 general election.
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While not a typical bellwether, it indicates a Labour Party recovery in Wales, at least in Westminster terms. Labour has governed the nation since devolution first began 25 years ago. Labour’s record in governing Wales is the point on which the Conservatives are mounting a last-ditch defence of their safest seats, with opinion polls suggesting a near clean sweep for Labour across Wales.
Historical precedent
Wales has been one of the most loyal Labour-voting areas of the United Kingdom for more than a century.
Having voted Labour at every general election since 1922, in 1997 and 2001, Wales did not send a single Conservative MP to represent the country for the first time in its history. Of 40 MPs, 34 were Labour, four Plaid Cymru and two Lib Dem.
A Tory-free Wales is not an uncommon occurrence.
Shifting electoral plates
The general election call could not have come at a timelier moment. This follows weeks of tumult in Welsh politics. The election call has placed a purdah on the civil service and Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs). It has also affected Welsh politics as politicians, the media and the people of Wales decide who will represent them at Westminster.
The fundamentals in Welsh politics have shifted. With Wales’ seat count cut from 40 to 32 under the boundary review, some seats that were once inconceivable for Labour are now within reach.
The boundary changes have mostly benefited Labour, despite the overall drop in seats. Four previously difficult seats, Monmouthshire, Mid and South Pembrokeshire, Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr, and Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe welcomed a number of Labour-voting settlements.
Tory heartlands could be up for grabs
The Conservatives are defending 12 of these seats under the new boundaries. This follows a record result in 2019 that saw most of north Wales turn blue.
Since 2019, a recent Wales-only poll showed the Conservatives down 16 points from their record result, now at 20%. A distant 24 points behind Labour, not far from their 27-point deficit to Labour in 1997. This places them in danger of losing all their seats across Wales.
Local campaign teams in the most challenging seats believe there is a real possibility that Tory heartlands are up for grabs.
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Conservative 2019 defence seats like Bridgend, Aberconwy, Wrexham and the two Clwyd seats require swings of less than 5%. All look especially vulnerable based on current polling.
In South Wales, the Labour Party in Monmouthshire, Vale of Glamorgan, and Mid and South Pembrokeshire all chose candidates early. Judging by my inbox of campaign invitations, these seats have a high concentration of party resources. Activists are piling into all three seats and mounting the strongest challenges here. Doorstep returns look strong currently according to a source.
Mid Wales – the new frontline
So strong is the Labour lead, there is potential for unexpected results. Labour hasn’t won a seat in mid Wales for a considerable amount of time. However, the constituencies there have chosen active candidates.
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr members chose local teacher, Steve Witherden, while benefiting from 34% of the new constituency now being made up of previously marginal Clwyd South. Notionally, a uniform swing from the Conservatives to Labour of 14% could secure the seat. On current polling in Wales, this is a distinct possibility, in a previously impossible area.
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Next door, Labour members in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe selected the popular local Brecon councillor and deputy leader of Powys council, Matthew Dorrance. Members hope that his enviable personal vote and the unexpected addition of part of the Labour-voting Swansea Valley will tilt the seat their way.
If the numbers in Wales hold, then these previously impossible seats are now probable. Although there is a noteworthy Lib Dem challenge in the Brecon seat which some pollsters believe could deny the Tories the seat also. Time will tell. Brecon and Radnor has not returned a Labour MP since Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 general election win.
Get out there!
For those who have spent considerable time organising campaigns, the early choice of strong candidates, energetic campaigning and plenty of foot soldiers can really shift the dial. Given the geographic scale of some of these constituencies, they are in dire need of help and support.
As a volunteer Labour organiser and CLP vice-chair, and given this is a Labour-leaning outlet, I am duty-bound to request that everyone reading this article campaign in these seats. Join the campaign and talk to voters. To achieve a Tory-free Wales, we need every available volunteer to join the campaign efforts in these crucial seats. Your participation can make a decisive difference.
It would shock even the most devout Labour supporters if the Tories lost all of their Welsh representation at Westminster. But if it were ever going to happen again, surely it would be at this election?
Read more of our 2024 general election coverage here.
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