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Could the vice presidential candidates sway the US election?


It’s a little under a month to go before the US presidential election — and Democratic vice presidential nominee, Tim Walz, and his Republican counterpart, JD Vance, are busy hitting the campaign trail to try and convince voters in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan to back their boss.

In the landscape of American politics, vice presidents play pivotal roles that often extend beyond their constitutional duties: they serve as key allies to presidential candidates, help shape campaign strategies, broaden their party’s appeal and mobilise critical voter demographics.

But in the grand scheme of the election, while vice-presidential picks can be important, they usually do not have a substantial impact on the presidential campaign — unless they turn out to be poor candidates, that is.

A notable example of a vice presidential impediment is Sarah Palin — whose selection as John McCain’s running mate in 2008 generated significant controversy and criticism.

Her candidacy is often cited as a turning point that contributed to McCain’s loss against Barack Obama, demonstrating how a miscalculated pick can resonate negatively with voters and overshadow the presidential candidate.

As both Walz and Vance make their cases to voters, therefore, understanding the importance of vice presidential candidates in shaping narratives and voter connections is more crucial than ever.

***Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for all the latest news and analysis.***

Tim Walz

Biography 

Walz, 60, grew up in rural Nebraska and received a social science degree from Chadron State College in Nebraska.

A high school social studies teacher when he decided to run for office, he also served 24 years in the Army National Guard and was a command sergeant major.

In 2006, Walz achieved the rare feat of unseating a Republican incumbent in Minnesota’s First District — a predominantly rural and Republican-leaning area.

While in Congress, he was the rare Democrat representing a rural part of the state, suggesting a kind of political appeal that could be attractive to Harris.

After serving in Congress, Walz decided to run for governor of Minnesota and has held the position since 2019. He is a member of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party and currently serves as the head of the Democratic Governors Association.

Why was Walz picked for the ticket? 

The Minnesota governor has been described as America’s “Midwestern dad” — a viral sensation lauded for his wholesome, folksy energy.

He initially wasn’t seen as a likely vice-presidential pick for Harris’s campaign. However, a series of strong TV appearances — most notably one where he described certain Republican policies as “weird” — raised his profile and positioned him as a contender.

Walz’s accomplishments during his two terms as governor arguably mirror what Harris wants to achieve in her presidency — such as expanding access to reproductive health, paid leave, child tax credits and gun safety.

Harris was also drawn to Walz’s background as a former high school teacher, football coach and veteran who managed to flip a Republican-leaning district in 2006 — qualities that could help attract swing voters.

How Walz could help the ticket

Walz’s “Minnesota nice” demeanour, together with his love of hunting and ice fishing, means he is seen as representing rural America in a way that Harris — a prosecutor from liberal San Francisco — never could.

Accordingly, experts say Walz’s selection is a move to balance the presidential ticket and appeal to a wider cross section of voters. The governor’s midwestern credentials, it is suggested, can appeal to the same white, working-class voters courted by Donald Trump.

Walz’s record of working with Republicans could also play well in all three of the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

However, Walz still has appeal with progressives in the Democratic Party. As governor, he completed a progressive wish list — enshrining abortion rights into state law, legalising recreational marijuana, establishing paid family leave requirements for employees and expanding background checks for gun purchases.

How Walz could hurt the ticket

Since being chosen as Harris’s running mate, the plain-spoken Minnesota governor has had to clarify an increasing number of inaccuracies and occasional embellishments about his past.

These issues range from statements about his military service and a visit to Hong Kong over three decades ago, to clarifying that his family did not specifically use in vitro fertilization (IVF).

Another point of criticism is how Walz handled protests in 2020, after George Floyd’s murder sparked a nationwide reckoning over racial discrimination and police misconduct.

Days after a White Minneapolis police officer killed Floyd, protests erupted in Minneapolis and St. Paul. In some cases, there was violence on the streets, fires and looting.

The governor’s actions, or lack thereof, during the protests and their aftermath continue to face sharp criticism.

Republicans argue that Walz should have acted more swiftly — while some progressives contend he did not take a strong enough stance in reforming the state’s police agencies.

***Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for all the latest news and analysis.***

JD Vance

Biography

JD Vance, 40, was born in Middletown, Ohio, to a mother who struggled with addiction and a father who left the family when Vance was a toddler. He served in the Marine Corps and went to Yale Law school, after which he worked in venture capital in Silicon Valley.

Vance’s challenging upbringing was the main focus of his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, which detailed his family’s struggles with poverty and drug addiction against the backdrop of the challenges faced by communities in Appalachia and Rust Belt America.

The book was a bestseller in 2016 and launched Vance’s political career.

In the months after Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election, Hillbilly Elegy was seen by some as offering insight into the lives of the Americans who played a pivotal role in deciding the election’s outcome.

Along these lines, Vance first emerged as a darling of conservative media — albeit as a frequent critic of Trump. The self-described “never-Trumper” even privately mocked the former president as “America’s Hitler” and “a total fraud”.

Vance’s tone shifted dramatically when he entered the 2022 Senate race, when he built his campaign around hard-right proposals such as completing the wall along the US-Mexico border.

That hard-right approach proved successful during the election, as he defeated Democratic Representative Tim Ryan by a six-point margin. In the year and a half since he joined Congress, Vance has served as one of Trump’s most vocal and aggressive supporters on Capitol Hill.

Why he was picked for the ticket?

In choosing JD Vance, Trump has leaned fully into his MAGA base. The VP nominee has been an ardent supporter of his since he first ran for office in 2022, and is seen by many as representing the next generation of the MAGA movement.

According to reports, Trump’s sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, pushed hard for Vance to be on the ticket.

Vance’s pick also alludes to the fact that Trump knows this election will be won and lost in a handful of industrial Midwest battleground states. With his background, Vance could be well positioned to connect with and energise the kind of white, working class voters who narrowly delivered those states to Trump in 2016.

How Vance could help the ticket

By selecting Vance, Trump has elevated a leader of the right-wing populist movement.

He has been an outspoken critic of US aid to Ukraine and other foreign interventions; a supporter of restrictive immigration policies and aggressive deportation measures; and a strong advocate of Trump’s protectionist trade policies, including high tariffs on imported goods.

Many of these policies resonate with the core constituencies that Republicans need to win in November, particularly in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Vance is also popular with a specific subset of Silicon Valley donors who can tap into their vast reservoirs of wealth in the coming months.

How Vance could hurt the ticket

Americans’ response towards Vance was cool from the start and has only barely improved since the Vice Presidential debate most experts concluded he won.

The Trump campaign’s attempts to introduce Vance to the public fumbled and a rash of bad headlines defined the rollout. 

To many voters, Vance has appeared extreme. Critics point to the fact that he has referred to Harris as a “childless cat lady” and his past support for a national abortion ban.

On the campaign trail, his remarks about Haitian immigrants eating pets, based on unsubstantiated internet rumours, were echoed by Trump during a recent presidential debate, sparking significant controversy in Springfield, a city near Vance’s hometown in Ohio.

During a recent CNN interview, Vance said he felt the need to “create stories so that the… media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people”. But he also insisted that constituents have told him tales of pet-eating by immigrants — even though his Senate office has not responded to requests for further details.

Politics.co.uk is the UK’s leading digital-only political website. Subscribe to our daily newsletter for all the latest news and analysis.





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