Don’t count the Shinners out yet in the Irish General Election….

In the year of elections worldwide, now comes the Irish one at the fag end of the year.

Táoiseach Simon Harris and Tánaiste Micheal Martin kept saying the polls would be in the New Year, but the dogs on the street knew it would be this side of Christmas, especially with Sinn Fein in permanent crisis mode recently.

So, who will make up the next Dáil parliament at Leinster House?

For as long as I can remember, the Irish administrations have all been coalitions, and that will not change anytime soon.

Sinn Fein made the fatal flaw in 2020 by not running more than one candidate in the multi-party constituencies that make up the Dáil.

That mistake will not be repeated this time around by Mary Lou McDonald.

Simon Harris, Fine Gáel leader, may well pay the price for the housing crisis which has enveloped the South in recent years were demand far outstrips supply.

I don’t imagine FG will be hit by immigration concerns as that constituency was never a Blueshirt voter anyway.

So, onto the soldiers of destiny, aka Fiánna Fáil, led by Micheal Martin.

FF has rebounded well in the past four years, and Gráinne Seoige in Galway West has added celebrity stardust to the ticket.

I expect FF to have a decent election but Martin needs to step sideways and let someone like the ever impressive Jack Chambers take the mantle.

Maybe Martin might be interested in a tilt at the Arás in 2025?

The Green Party will play no part in the next Dublin administration so expect a Labour and/or rump of Independents to step up to government.

FG will happily go back in with FF and possibly some Independents.

FF under Martin will also go back in with FG and the aforementioned Independents.

Neither party will touch SF currently but if Martin steps aside there is a grouping within FF who would share power with SF.

And talking of the Shinners, I don’t believe they will do as badly as some polls suggest.

Dare I say there is still a shy SF vote, especially south of the border?

They will capitalise on government failings over housing, for example.

SF could still be in the mix for the 34th Dáil when the votes are counted on 30th November.

Kevin Rooney is a public sector administrator and previously a local journalist in Downpatrick.