David Moane is Dublin-based and retired who likes to comment on current affairs. Here we reprint his short first take from his Facebook page that focuses largely, but not exclusively, on what Donald Trump’s second term might mean for Ireland.
FIVE TAKES FOR TRUMP’S SECOND TERM
- The Trump coalition extends well beyond the traditional Republican base and is more representative of America as it is today. The Democrats coalition is more brittle. This could be an insurmountable challenge for that party.
- In terms of US domestic politics, the country’s comprehensive system of checks and balances will limit what Trump can do in four years as it did in his first term. A lot of bark (which we will all have to hear) and relatively little bite. I do not and have never accepted that Trump is a threat to America’s democracy.
- There could be foreign policy benefits. A quicker end to the Ukraine war based on the realpolitik necessity of Russian concerns being at least partially addressed and thus returning some balance to Europe in terms of security and trade. A more decisive input into the Middle East war which will favour Israel initially but by bringing it to a quicker end will help the Palestinians salvage something.
- The EU will be emboldened to push back against Trump’s policies on trade. European countries will be once again glad to have an entrenched supranational organisation representing them with the heft to deal with both America and China in this area. On NATO and defence Trump is right, and Ireland (and Europe) should wake up.
- On Ireland itself, there will be much exaggerated talk about the threat to its FDI economic model. Trump’s economic policies will face strong push-back in Congress and amongst corporate America. It is likely Ireland will hold on to what it has and its fundamental attraction as a global gateway to Europe and beyond for FDI (not only American) will not change.
This is a guest slot to give a platform for new writers either as a one off, or a prelude to becoming part of the regular Slugger team.
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