Holyrood by-election: Scottish Labour gloom and a call for PM to reshuffle – LabourList

Labour has gone on the offensive on the SNP’s record on issues like health, warning GPs are at “breaking point”. It has also targeted local issues, such as campaigning to save the local fire station, neonatal unit and football club.

More recently, Anas Sarwar has hit back hard at controversial attacks by Nigel Farage, calling him a “pathetic, poisonous little man” and challenging the Reform leader to “ask his chauffeur to put Hamilton into Google Maps” and debate him in Hamilton.

The Scottish Labour source said that, while canvassing, voters have said Labour have “betrayed pensioners” over the decision to means test the winter fuel payment.

“People voted last year to get rid of the Tory government, and that involved some tactical voting, but we’re definitely hearing loud and clear from voters that they feel let down by Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves in particular. They feel that this government is not what they expect a Labour government to be like.

“We know there’s really good stuff that the Labour government has done, but people don’t seem to want to hear that – the bad outweighs the good.”

READ MORE: ‘Progressivism or bust: Why Blue Labour is the wrong answer to Reform surge’

While the government has signalled a shift in policy over the winter fuel allowance, the source said that the “damage has been done” for the by-election.

“We might not benefit from this, but it’s the right thing to do, and we have to rebuild the trust of the people.Hopefully lessons will be learned, but for this by-election and possibly the next round of elections to come, it may not make that much difference.”

‘We hear people saying I may as well give Reform a chance’

Despite Labour’s struggles in the polls, the source told LabourList: “There is no great love for the SNP.”

“No one is singing their praises, but there is still a bit of feeling that at least the SNP are standing up for Scotland.

“When we’re canvassing, we’re steering the conversation to try and find out if someone has anti-SNP tendencies, and then we can try and push that message of only Labour can stop the SNP.

“But there are ten candidates on the ballot paper, and looking at polling and national trends, some people will vote Lib Dem, others will turn to the Greens.”

However, the by-election will also be Reform UK’s first big test in Scotland, with the party tied with Labour in the opinion polls in the nation.

“Reform was being mentioned now and again at the start of the campaign, now every door knocking session, every bit of engagement with voters, it’s Reform, Reform, Reform – it’s all we hear, which is very unusual for people here in Lanarkshire and the west of Scotland.

READ MORE: ‘Ignore stereotypes. Reform-leaning Labour voters dislike the two-child cap’

“We hear a lot of people saying I may as well give Reform a chance. People are feeling pretty let down.”

However, the source also hit out at Reform’s campaign in the constituency, which has been branded as racist for suggesting Anas Sarwar will “prioritise the Pakistani community”. Nigel Farage defended the advert, accusing the Scottish Labour leader of introducing “sectarianism” into Scottish politics – claims Sarwar described as “absolute nonsense”.

The source said: “I think the longer the by-election has gone on, although there has been an uptick for Reform, people are starting to see the nastier side of Reform. There has been some horrible social media, some far-right organisations coming out onto the streets to support them.

“There’s a lot of racism and some of that has been pointed directly at Anas Sarwar, and there should be no room for that in our politics.”

‘Skipping debate would be a missed opportunity’

One thing making the difference for Labour, however, is speaking to people on the doorstep and not dismissing concerns, the source said.

“It’s looking tough, but we’re very good at drawing on our members and our volunteers and getting people out on the streets, reaching people and running a professional campaign. We still have that capability, and I think that still puts us in a very competitive place, but there shouldn’t be any complacency, because people clearly are looking for somewhere else to go with their vote and other parties are getting their act together.”

Russell has done some media interviews during the campaign as part of visits around the constituency. But the source was critical of the decision by the Labour campaign to not have Labour’s candidate Davy Russell take part in TV and radio hustings, reportedly dodging an interview on BBC’s Good Morning Scotland and refusing to take part in a candidates’ debate on STV scheduled for June 2.

READ MORE: Party officials warn 2024 strategy ‘won’t win’ next election amid ‘digital arms race’

They said: “I think it’s important for candidates when the opportunity is there to take the platform and to promote Labour values and Labour policies. On TV and radio, we reach a far bigger audience, and it’s a way to reach those voters that we struggle to make contact with.

“I think it would be a missed opportunity, and it gives ammunition to our opponents in this election, because they want to show that their candidates are strong and stand up for the constituency and can perform on the national stage.

“This may be the last big chance before the Holyrood election next year and we have to show that we’re confident and that we’re not giving up.”

‘A lot of frustration’

With less than a year until that election, the source told LabourList there is “a lot of frustration” within the party, aimed particularly at the Labour government in Westminster for making the task of electing a Labour administration at Holyrood more challenging.

“We’ve got some brilliant MPs and there was a lot of teamwork last year to help our Westminster candidates get elected to represent Scottish Labour. We’re all so delighted about that, but we can’t leave it to a Brian Leishman or one or two strong voices to speak up when they’re concerned about the direction that we’re going in.

“After this by-election, there needs to be a gathering where we bring people together to really reflect on what people have told us and to find a new way to show people what our values are, what we believe in and what we’re actually going to do.

“Where we have made decisions that have went down badly, it is partly because of the way they were communicated and leading with the bad news which people don’t want to hear. Life is hard enough for people without being told things are going to get worse.

‘I think there is still a path’

Despite this, they were still hopeful that the party would be able to chart a course to victory next May.

“I think there is still a path. Anas Sarwar is well liked when people meet him. He’s charismatic, he’s got the energy, people can see he’s serious and ambitious, but the way the UK party has been behaving, it’s making his job extremely difficult.”

They also said that one key member of the government, Angela Rayner, remains popular.

“Angela Rayner absolutely is an asset. You could bring Angela out into the by-election pretty much anywhere and she would be an asset.”

READ MORE: Holyrood 2026: Who are the Labour MSPs standing down?

‘Reeves broke a glass ceiling – but it’s all about performance’

The source urged Keir Starmer to “respect the people of this country and to really listen – not just to focus groups, but really listen to what people are saying” and said there needed to be a “reset” in Westminster.

“I think there should be a reshuffle. I think he needs to send a signal to party members and loyal supporters that he’s not factional and that he will support good colleagues who absolutely care about Labour values. Where they’ve made mistakes, they have to be big enough to put their hands up and say they’ve got it wrong.”

They also rejected any suggestion that the party should shift rightwards to counter the threat of Reform and Nigel Farage and said: “We have to stand up to Farage and we have to show that we are a strong country, but we are a fair and kind country – and we don’t kick people when they’re down.”

When asked what they would like to see from a potential reshuffle, their criticism was focused on the Chancellor.

“If we were told that Rachel Reeves was coming to the by-election, I think we’d be very concerned. Rachel has broken a glass ceiling and I think it’s really good that we have got a woman Chancellor after all these years, but it’s all about performance, delivery and outcomes.

“The biggest problem seems to be Morgan McSweeney and Rachel. For people who are quite far removed from it, like our members, they’re like ‘What the hell is going on?’”

Scottish Labour was approached for comment.

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