How Jenrick and Badenoch could trigger a One Nation Conservative revolt – Politics.co.uk

“Growing the economy”, the prime minister said, “is the number one mission of this government. We’re not unique in that, most governments, nations and regions want to grow the economy.”

However, with Labour on the cusp of a major political and psychological milestone — that 100-day mark — new polling suggests recent missteps are taking a heavy toll. According to YouGov, 59 per cent of people disapprove of the Labour government’s record — just 18 per cent approve. Find this polling, in full, here.

But today: some more thoughts on the Conservative leadership contest and the race’s curiously insubstantial ideological contours.

Conservatism at the crossroads 

The shock emergence of Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch as the top two candidates in the Tory leadership contest means the party has abruptly — and without warning — entered uncharted territory.

Despite their stylistic distinctiveness and personal antagonism, Jenrick and Badenoch’s individual politics are more closely aligned than any of the Conservative Party’s final two contests since records began.

Consider the profiles of those rivals who’ve progressed to the activist voting stage since the current rules were instituted by William Hague, crowned leader in 1997. The 2001 contest saw Iain Duncan Smith (right-wing) do battle with Kenneth Clarke (moderate); in 2005, it was David Cameron (moderate) versus David Davis (right-wing); in 2019, it was Boris Johnson (right-wing) versus Jeremy Hunt (moderate); and, in 2022, it was Liz Truss (right-wing) and Rishi Sunak (moderate).

For the most part, these labels are strictly relative and “vibes”-based. For instance, Sunak is labelled “moderate” here — but he could reasonably be construed as the most right-wing Conservative leader of his generation. Still, in the summer of 2022, commentators and parliamentarians alike considered the ex-chancellor as running to Truss’ left.

In this Jenrick-Badenoch bout, however, no candidate can persuasively be posited to the left of the other. There is no candidate clearly more “right-wing” than their rival. The Tory vibes-ometer, in short, is broken.

As I argued yesterday, Conservative activists will now have the choice of “two ideologically maximalist options — candidates who have both positioned themselves to the right of Rishi Sunak”. Ergo, whoever members pick, the Tory party is about to smash another ideological record.

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This, of course, will have some interesting implications — not all of which are knowable at this stage. But one immediate consequence of this irregularity has been the commentary provided by the Tory Reform Group of moderate Conservatives.

In a statement yesterday, the TRG said it could not endorse either remaining candidate as they had both used rhetoric which is “far and away from the party at its best”. The group, whose president is former moderate leadership contender Lord Clarke, added: “The board of the TRG has unanimously concluded that we are unable to endorse either candidate.”

For a one nation Tory, this statement — scathing in its subtext — is the equivalent of a Conservative right-winger posting a no-confidence letter to Twitter and touring the media studios to promulgate some seething tirade.

I say this because, rather like the “soft left” in Labour, One Nation Conservatives nominally make up a “faction” — but they take far from enthusiastically to “factionalism.” They are “wet” by name and, typically, wet by nature. The official One Nation caucus website still lists “Damian Green MP” as the group’s chairman. (Green is no longer an MP). The group’s latest “news” item is a statement on the Safety of the Rwanda Bill.

In this regard, it suited One Nation Tories during Rishi Sunak’s premiership to sit back, assume the de facto PM-Braverman coalition was unwilling and console themselves with the knowledge that moderates, after all, comprised his support base in consecutive leadership elections in 2022.

To the perennial question of ‘Why don’t the One Nation Conservatives reclaim their party?’ — the implicit response was always: ‘Well, we never lost it’.

But towards the end of the last parliament, there were nascent signs of a One Nation bullishness not seen since the faction fought (and lost) the 2016-2019 Brexit war.

After the Supreme Court ruled against the government’s Rwanda plan, moderate Tories drew a “red line” over the UK’s membership of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). It came as a group of Tory right-wingers — the so-called “five families” — effectively called for the UK’s withdrawal from the Convention to facilitate a more hardline response.

Sunak, cognisant of the moderates’ parliamentary muscle, did not venture near their “red line”. (The internal lobbying of certain cabinet colleagues, such as then-justice secretary Alex Chalk and ex-attorney general Victoria Prentis, was likely important too.)

Significantly, the Conservative parliamentary party’s ideological balance has not altered drastically since the last parliament. But Tory divides have deepened in defeat and been emphasised by the ongoing leadership election. In such feverish moments, the Conservative right’s factional energy tends to defy its numerical disadvantage. And, lo, the stock Tory leadership formula — one “moderate” plus one “right-winger” — has utterly collapsed.

Still, it is worth reiterating that Badenoch and Jenrick won the backing of only42 and 41 MPs on Wednesday — totals that were inflated by game-playing Cleverly supporters. It means whoever is declared as the next Conservative chief on 2 November will be weak from the outset.

But Jenrick and Badenoch have both indicated they intend to rule with an iron fist as leader — treating their party as a blank slate and imposing their visions upon it. In fact, Jenrick has stated that any MP who serves in his shadow cabinet will have to sign up to leaving the ECHR — that well-known Tory moderate red line.

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Yesterday, GB News reported that Bob Blackman, the new 1922 committee chairman, plans to raise the threshold needed for MPs to trigger a confidence vote in a leader from 15 per cent of the parliamentary party to “at least 30 per cent”. Around 36 of the party’s 121 MPs will now be needed to force a confidence ballot. (Note: 37 MPs backed Cleverly on Wednesday).

A confidence vote is the ultimate infighting endgame. But the ideological balance of the 121 MP-strong Conservative Party is nonetheless immensely precarious. A new leader, especially one of the Tory right (as it will be), should tread carefully indeed. And yet political “care” is neither Jenrick nor Badenoch’s style.

In time, we may view the Tory Reform Group’s statement yesterday as the first shot in a Conservative civil war that lasts the parliament. A civil war that could, in some extreme but not unforeseeable eventualities, culminate in another Tory regicide.

The last time a right-winger who cared little for political concession was imposed on the parliamentary party, moderate MPs quickly unsheathed their knives. Any attempt to turn the Tories into a “Reform-lite” outfit will, I think, be met with similar resistance.

Even more specifically: a pledge to leave the ECHR, in terms of its party management ramifications, could prove the next leader’s “mini-budget” moment.

Lunchtime briefing

New parliament considerably ‘greener’ than its predecessor, MP survey suggests

Lunchtime soundbite

‘[Badenoch] is making interesting points about the issues that matter to voters, and she has a project for redefining Conservatism to make it relevant in the new era.’

— Former de facto deputy PM and One Nation Conservative Damian Green endorses Kemi Badenoch to be leader of the Conservative Party.

Now try this…

‘“The choice is s**t”: Tory moderates say neither Jenrick or Badenoch will last’
The i reports. (Paywall)

‘100 days of Starmer: How Labour’s big win went off the rails’
After just a few months in office, the new British government is finding life tough, writes Politico’s Sam Blewett.

‘The Conservatives should not make an electoral pact with Reform UK. But we should prepare for coalition with them’
ConservativeHome’s Harry Phibbs writes.

On this day in 2022:

Left wing Labour MP Sam Tarry loses reselection vote