Huw Davies is Deputy Chairman of South Wales East Conservatives.
Who’d have thought that two boxes and a bag of plastic balls would cause such a fuss. But that is what happened when Andrew RT Davies, leader of the Conservatives in the Senedd, put up an unscientific poll at an agricultural show. “Why?” you may ask.
Well, it was asking that ever so controversial question: “Should the Senedd be abolished?”
Now I say controversial, as to most Welsh Tory members and to a significant bulk of the electorate it certainly is not. But with some Conservative Senedd Members (and a whole host of online keyboard warriors) you could practically hear the pearls being clutched.
In all seriousness, the question is one which has dogged the Welsh Tories for many years now. We are a deeply devosceptic party, it is in our very nature and history, yet we have politicians who simply can’t abide by it. However, Andrew has finally brought to the fore something which the Conservatives must grapple with and embrace, for purely its own survival if nothing else.
In my previous piece for ConHome, I argued that the Conservatives are seriously threatened from Reform UK in Wales and have a very limited time window to counter it for the next Senedd election in 2026. For the Tories to remain relevant in that contest and beyond, it must be bold and move out of its comfort zone.
For all the good in the world, having nice policy discussions which come up with banal ideas are not going to shift the dial back towards the Conservatives in Wales. There now must be a serious look at how we see devolution and that will determine how eye-catching we will be when polling day comes in 2026.
We should not fear this debate, in fact we should relish it. Outside of the ‘Bay Bubble’, there is much displeasure with the Senedd with polls suggesting a third of the electorate would vote to scrap it, less than half would want to keep it, with a vast number of Don’t Knows.
As we now have a Labour government in Westminster, such a prospect would not worry most non-Tory unionist voters. Added to Davies’ messaging around a more left-of-centre approach to the economy, there is an opportunity to make the election a nationalist vs unionist contest. This is since that we will be able to more appealing to unionist voters outside our usual traditional areas.
Moreover, we would be no longer be accused of being devosceptic for partisan reasons as we would be advocating for this policy while our political opponents are in power at Westminster.
I am concerned that if we don’t engage on this issue and pretend that this elephant is not in the room, we risk becoming totally irrelevant. Other than the usual very forgettable slogans and platitudes, we will have nothing to say – no unique selling point. The job of politicians is to see gaps in the market, and to feel where the political winds are blowing.
My fear is that a deep fog clouds the judgment of many in the Tory Senedd group: losing the comfortable life the Bay affords its ever-growing population of politicians and hangers-on. But there is nothing conservative about trying to defend an institution which fundamentally is eating away at our nation.
The 2026 election will be fought on a PR based system with no constituencies, therefore there is no need for tactical voting. There is no credible ‘hold your nose and vote Tory to stop Labour’ messaging anymore either. For the first time, we will really have to earn support from right-of-centre voters in Wales. That means a clear, bold, salient and populist message is desperately needed.
Let those multi-coloured plastic ball ballots cast in a field in the Vale of Glamorgan start a debate on the future Conservative policy trajectory on devolution. Despite the protestations of Lord Bourne, a former Senedd group leader, abolition has been party policy before. Incredibly, it was on his watch in 2005!
The clock is ticking, and it is imperative that we go into the next Senedd election with an offering which can be used to see off Reform UK and remain an electoral force to be reckoned with.
