Huw Davies is Deputy Chairman of the South Wales East Conservatives.
As the dust settles upon a cataclysmic election result for the Conservatives in Wales, the question on everyone’s lips is “what in the world happened?”
The answer is relatively simple: like everywhere else in the United Kingdom, Reform UK and apathetic Tories meant we suffered a complete and utter wipeout. Our inability as a national party to adapt to the changing political situation in Britain has meant the electorate has punished us, putting us on the potential brink of extinction.
In Wales, it was particularly apocalyptic, losing all our Members of Parliament. Rising stars like Sarah Atherton and experienced voices such as David TC Davies were all swept away in the ‘Red Tsunami’.
The question which should now be posed is “how do we fightback?” Now, this is also relatively simple. But I gather from conversations I have had across the Party that it will be difficult to implement, as it will require a significant amount of soul searching about who we are and who we choose to represent.
Across the Western world, parties of the populist right are making enormous strides. The post-industrial heartlands of the old Left are now becoming the new bastions of the populist Right.
West Virginia, one of only six US states to vote for Jimmy Carter twice, is now very much in the Republican column. This old coal-mining, unionised state, which was the bedrock of industrialised America, is the blueprint for the new Republican order being forged by Donald Trump. Northern Italy, once a hotbed of Italian industrialism, is now the jewel in the crown of Giorgia Meloni’s populist government.
The route back for the Welsh Conservatives, and the Conservatives across Britain, is to become the party of post-industrial Britain. We are no different to the rest of the Western World, we have our own areas where globalisation has ruined the hearts of many communities – just look at the South Wales Valleys.
It should be our job to represent them. We dipped our toe into this exciting new politics back in 2019, and it delivered us a stonking victory. If we had gone a little further, I firmly believe the Conservatives would have topped the poll in Wales for the first time in 200 years.
For me this transition is easy, but I understand for others it would not be so. It would mean junking the free-market dogma, the philosophy of greed, and the belief that the naked individual is the central focal point of society. But this sacrifice would not mean we just survive but thrive well into the second half of this century.
It is essential that we follow this path, or otherwise we will be outflanked and replaced by Reform UK, particularly in Wales. The Senedd has been around for 25 years now, and there is still a deep unhappiness with it. The blanket 20mph speed limit imposed by the Labour Welsh Government has created the groundwork of a devosceptic populist movement in Wales.
This would be ripe for picking for a party like Reform UK, but I have it on good authority that the Welsh arm is not going to become a force for devoscepticism. In fact, it wants to play its full part in devolved politics. If I was one of their strategists, I would be aghast at this – but this provides a fantastic opportunity for the Welsh Conservatives.
Not only is our main rival on the Right potentially going to make a huge error out of self-interest, but they themselves may choose to vacate the populist field in Wales. This is our chance to lead the way for the Conservatives in the rest of the United Kingdom – our very own Welsh opportunity.
Andrew RT Davies, our leader in the Senedd, is already articulating a populist vision of the future for the Party. He, and the people around him, understand the way Britain, as well as the Western world, is moving. It is this vision that must be articulated and enhanced by whoever becomes our new leader across the United Kingdom.
Even if we do it right as Welsh Conservatives, ultimately this won’t make much difference in Wales because the public are functionally British. They consume news like Britons, and they vote like Britons (their voting patterns almost mirror their socio-economic equivalents in England).
Our messaging must therefore be consistent across the United Kingdom. Anything else is confusing and concedes a key argument to the nationalists – that the Welsh are a different people who require a separate centre-right party. They aren’t, they don’t, and they would barely notice if we did it.
Where we lead in Wales, we can lead in the United Kingdom too. But we can only further this vibrant brand of politics if we have the courage to seize the moment and the opportunity which lies in front of us. Let the result in Wales alight a Phoenix which will rise from the ashes anew and ready to face the challenges which concern the British people.
