Though both men would likely not admit it, Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak share more than a few similarities.
They’re both considered managerial technocrats, whose careers outside of politics have shaped their thinking today. Their success as senior politicians has been as much down to the limitations of their colleagues, as their own political skills.
Our new research suggests that Starmer is also at risk of suffering a similar fate as Rishi Sunak – leaking votes to both left and right while in government.
For some, it might be too early to think about where Labour’s next majority might come from. But, just as you could see the seeds of Conservative destruction in their 2019 majority, so too can we learn from Labour’s landslide in 2024.
Labour focused on the 2019 Tory vote
Labour won in no small party by focusing ruthlessly on winning over ‘hero’ voters: those who voted Brexit in 2016 and Conservatives in 2019. By picking up these voters, they scored a double victory – one vote away from incumbent Conservative MPs, and one for Labour challengers.
Their success has redrawn the electoral map. Not just for Labour, but all around them. For the last 15 years, all the pressure on Labour has come from the right. Successive Labour leaders have attempted to look tough on migration; trusted on national security; worthy stewards of the economy.
READ MORE: Labour risks losing loyal voters, new poll shows
With the collapse of the Conservative Party, and the relative anonymity of the Reform UK (so far), the heat has all been coming from the left. And this isn’t just about Labour’s first few weeks in government. It’s a reflection of the new electoral map, with Greens and Liberal Democrats newly resurgent forces.
Our new polling shows the yellow and green threat
How much of a force? Well, our research suggests that over a quarter of Labour Loyalists (core Labour voters who backed the party under both Corbyn and Starmer) would consider voting Liberal Democrat (27%) or Green (28%) if there were an election tomorrow.
Of those Labour Joiners – who voted Labour this time but either couldn’t or didn’t in 2019 – 28% would consider voting Liberal Democrat, and 22% Green. Comparatively, just 16% of Joiners say they’d consider voting Conservative.
Both Meg Hiller MP and Tom Baldwin made clear on our panel event – in partnership with LabourList – that to get reelected, Labour simply needs to deliver and improve people’s lives. In some ways, it is that simple.
This way, Labour may also be able to regain some Defectors, who stopped backing the party between 2019 and 2024. Four in ten say Labour ‘lost their vote’. Some chose not to vote at all, while many voted Green. One in six voted Reform.
But delivery in government can of course mean different things to different people. A third of Loyalists (33%) and Joiners (35%) think Labour is doing worse in government than they expected.
Starmer may soon face tough choices over targeting
There is some better news for Labour when discussing Joiners. They’re broadly satisfied so far, with nearly two thirds saying the government is performing in line with, or above their expectations.
Clearly none of this is a prediction. The next election will be defined by what Labour does in government, and how those around them respond. The Conservatives remain a great unknown until their new leader is elected.
But Labour cannot bank on them repeating their historically poor performance. There is an inevitability that some Joiners will go back to the Conservatives. The key question is how many.
So, Keir Starmer may have to make a choice soon, more nuanced than his targeting of ‘hero’ voters at this election.
Prioritise the Conservative voters they convinced to switch in July or hold onto their core vote in the face of growing threats from Greens and Liberal Democrats. Pick “where we’re going to lose” next time, on the basis it’s hard to grow from here.
For lots of reasons, Rishi Sunak struggled to make that choice. Keir Starmer may face the same struggle very soon.
Recap on all of the news and debate at party conference 2024 by LabourList here.
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