On the 4 July 2024, the SNP experienced something they had not experienced in a very long time – they lost an election.
For those of us in Scotland who had been subjected to countless SNP wins, it felt like a long-lasting fever had finally broken. There were now 37 Scottish Labour MPs compared to just nine for the SNP and a Labour government at Westminster.
But despite their general election drubbing, John Swinney is still First Minister of Scotland and controls nearly 50% of seats in the Scottish Parliament. In concrete terms little has changed for him north of the border, but in political terms, everything has changed.
During the election, the SNP campaign threw every shibboleth they could at Scottish Labour to try and shore up the progressive voters that were seemingly leaving them in droves. Labour was weak on Gaza, on independence, on NHS privatisation, and austerity.
John Swinney even dressed up in a pink cowboy hat and neon yellow sunglasses to, I guess go after the hen night vote? It was truly the greatest hits, the ABBA Gold if you will, of the last 18 years of SNP attacks.
It was obvious from the hours after the election that Labour were not going to treat Scotland (and the Scottish Government) with the same contempt as the outgoing Conservative government.
Labour Party staffers lined Downing Street with Saltires in their hands, and Keir Starmer ensured Scotland was his first stop on his post-election UK tour, where he and Swinney sat for a classic Bute House Fireplace photocall.
It seemed that the SNP would follow suit and engage in the honeymoon atmosphere. Swinney spent the post meeting interview talking up hopes that Starmer and himself would ‘engage constructively’ on areas of common ground between the pair.
Perhaps this was a new dawn in the era of devolution? Well not quite.
Holyrood election on the horizon
At a UK level, activists will be able to rest knowing the next UK election is not scheduled until 2029. In Scotland however, the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections are looming eerily over the hill. This election is mission critical to the SNP. If they fail to retain power, they will be sidelined into irrelevance.
The idea that independence is just around the corner is an excellent carrot to ensure SNP members and voters stay motivated. If the SNP are to lose power or even face a unionist majority in Holyrood, then independence is no longer around the corner – it’s in deep freeze.
What is the point of the Scottish National Party if it can neither claim to represent the nation or advance the nationalist cause? For the SNP this nightmare scenario has to be avoided at all costs and currently the way to do that is through the defeat of Labour.
Mere weeks after the election the SNP decided to launch what could be argued to be its first strike against the new Labour Government – it forced a vote in the Commons on the two child amendment.
Clearly the SNP were not going to wait for election wounds to heal, they were going to run up and start punching the bruises.
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Similar exploitation of Labour’s positions have come on the winter fuel payment, despite the fact it is devolved and well within the rights of the Scottish Government to keep.
However, due to the election, the SNP are a severely weakened force in Westminster. They no longer have the prime time audience of a guaranteed PMQ and with a lot of their most effective MPs swallowed up by the red tsunami, they seem to be compensating with stronger attacks in their other soap box – the Scottish Parliament.
The cries that Labour would continue with austerity were common throughout the campaign from SNP MPs but MSPs now trip over themselves to mention “Labour austerity” in the Holyrood chamber.
The irony, of course, is that the SNP has consistently cut their own government spending over its 18 years in power, including savage cuts to housing and a promise of a further £500m of cuts in December’s budget.
They blame these cuts solely on the Tory/Labour (delete as appropriate) Westminster government, and not their own mismanagement. A classic tactic of the SNP that they clearly cannot be weaned off. Take credit for the good things but blame Westminster for the bad.
It reveals that the SNP show no interest in real cooperation with the new Labour government. Perhaps it suits their narrative if they can convince Scots that nothing has fundamentally changed. However, the SNP have been in power since before the Iphone, some chickens are coming home to roost.
If the SNP remains committed to their strategy of convincing the electorate that Starmer and Labour are nothing more than snake oil merchants, promising change but delivering nothing, it may work but it comes with risks.
Recap on all of the news and debate from party conference 2024 by LabourList here.
The SNP are not popular anymore. Trust in the Scottish Government is the lowest it has ever been. There are crises in a whole range of policy areas controlled by the Scottish Government.
If the UK government’s own popularity numbers don’t improve then 2026 may become an unpopularity contest about who Scottish voters dislike the least, but there is no guarantee that by dragging Labour down, the SNP come out on top.
Perhaps it was foolhardy to believe the SNP would truly soften their approach to Westminster. They have a stake in illustrating the UK doesn’t work. Yet,despite SNP wishes, the Scottish electorate do not see a Labour government and a Tory government as the same.
If the SNP cry wolf over every Labour policy then they risk the Scottish electorate looking for someone talking about voters problems instead of the SNP’s.
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