The introduction of Labour Together’s review into the general election contains the memorable phrase: “This Labour government has been cautiously hired, on a trial basis, liable to prompt dismissal if it deviates even slightly from its focus on voters’ priorities.”
This is startling, given that Labour has just achieved the second-highest majority of any government since the Second World War and sent the Conservatives crashing to their worst-ever defeat.
But this victory happened against a background where a volatile British electorate is increasingly losing faith in mainstream politics.
According to the most recent British Social Attitudes data, the percentage of Britons who trust politicians has more than halved since 1986. This distrust is not just seen in numbers on a chart. It translated into actual voting behaviour in the form of the second lowest turnout for an election since and the lowest combined vote share for the two main parties in the post-war period.
‘The Tories created a wide-ranging coalition who were absolutely furious with them’
That voters are distrustful should not come as a surprise after the fall of a Conservative government which had almost nothing positive to show for its fourteen years in office. The Tories had assembled an impressively wide-ranging coalition of support in 2019, but less than five years later, created an impressively wide-ranging coalition of voters who were absolutely furious with them.
Those on the right of their coalition who wanted to see large reductions in net migration into the UK were disappointed. Those towards the centre of their coalition who wanted see refugees treated more humanely. Those who wanted low taxes were let down, just as much as those who were desperate to improve public services. Those who can’t afford to buy their own homes received no substantive help, while sky-high interest rates clobbered those who already own their homes with a mortgage.
The most basic expectation citizens have of their government is that they feel better off at the end of their term in office than at the beginning. But average wages are only a few pounds per week higher than their pre-financial crisis peak in 2008.
As a result, the 2019 Conservative vote shattered. Labour Together’s polling found that less than half remained loyal. The rest fragmented. One in ten switched directly to Labour, one in five went to Reform, around one in six simply stayed at home on polling day.
READ MORE: Sir John Curtice warns Labour victory in 2029 not guaranteed
‘Antipathy to the Tories has evolved into distrust of the political system’
But specific antipathy to the Tories has evolved into much higher levels of distrust of the political system. We found that only 52 percent of voters thought that democracy was functioning badly. Only 15 percent trusted politicians a lot, or a fair amount. But among those who did not cast their ballot for one of the main political parties (Labour, Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats), trust was even lower.
Those who avoided the mainstream are an ideologically disparate group, ranging from liberal anti-capitalist Greens through to Reform voters whose overwhelming preoccupation was with dramatically reducing migration. It also includes supporters of the Gaza Independents and those too disillusioned to even bother voting at all.
Whereas 40 percent of those who voted for one of the main parties thought democracy was functioning badly, 64 percent of Green voters and 73 percent of Reform voters felt the same. Around a quarter of Conservative and Labour voters trusted politicians, but only nine percent of those who did not vote, eight percent of Greens, seven percent of Reform voters and a vanishingly small two percent of Independent voters did so.
Although their underlying attitudes and priorities led these distrustful voters down radically different paths in terms of who they ended up voting for (if they voted at all), they were united by their lack of faith in politicians to fulfil their promises.
READ MORE: ‘Labour needs to listen: how the party can stem the tide of right wing populism’
‘Labour must ruthlessly focus on the top priorities of its voters’
This low trust among the electorate makes the challenge for Labour very hard. Add to this an inheritance of barely functioning public services and a Treasury with empty coffers will make it challenging for Labour fulfil its own election promise of bringing meaningful change to Britain.
In order to do so, the government must ruthlessly focus on the very top priorities of its voters. This means that Labour will not be able to do everything that it, or many of its supporters, would like it to do. It means, as Keir Starmer articulated in his conference speech, that there will be difficult trade-offs, some of which will not be popular in the short term.
Committing to give everything to almost everyone, whilst delivering almost nothing to anyone worked for the Conservatives, until inevitably – and catastrophically – it caught up with them. Meanwhile, the populists of both left and right, stand little chance of ever being held account for their unrealistic ambitions. They have every incentive to be dishonest and deny that difficult choices exist. But Labour knows that it will take longer than one term in office to fully undo the damage done to our country over the last fourteen years. An electorate that has lost faith in a government is unlikely to reward it with a second term. So it will be essential to rebuild the public’s trust through only promising what can actually be delivered and then delivering on what they promise.
Labour Together’s work has outlined the extent of the public’s cynicism towards politics and politicians. It will take purposeful, realistic and competent government to undo it.
Recap on all of the news and debate from party conference 2024 by LabourList here.
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