Labour’s first Budget since returning to power is fast approaching – which will make history in more ways than one.
Not only is it the first time in more than a decade that a Labour Chancellor will take to the dispatch box to deliver a Budget, it will also be the first ever delivered by a woman as Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Rachel Reeves will stride out of Number 11 Downing Street with the red Budget Box on October 30 before heading to Parliament for one of the most keenly awaited political moments of year.
While the Budget’s contents are not yet known in full, here are some policies many expect to see:
Non-dom tax status
The abolition of non-domicile (or non-dom) status was featured in Labour’s election manifesto, with a pledge to replace it with a “modern scheme for people genuinely in the country for a short period.”
This had long been expected to be a feature of Labour’s first Budget – but the BBC has reported that the Treasury is reconsidering parts of the plan over concerns that wealthy foreigners might leave the country.
The details of what revisions might look like are not yet clear, but it would be a glaring omission if no reference were made to non-dom status changes.
A spokesperson told the broadcaster the government remained committed to replacing non-dom status with a “new internationally competitive residence-based regime focused on attracting the best talent and investment to the UK”.
VAT on private schools
This was one of Labour’s manifesto pledges that has drawn the fiercest backlash – but the party has given little indication of watering it down.
From schools closing down to more trivial concerns around embossed stationery, the press has had little shortage of scare stories to accompany this high-profile policy.
But Labour has repeatedly defended the move as a necessary measure to raise more funds for underperforming state schools. The change is all but certain to feature in this year’s Budget.
National Wealth Fund
Starmer’s Labour has been keen to shake off the perception of his predecessors that the party is “anti-business”, continually pledging partnership between the state and the private sector.
The 2024 manifesto included a pledge to set up a National Wealth Fund. The text bemoans a lack of investment in Britain, adding that Labour would use “every available lever” to correct this.
Labour pledged an extra £7.3bn towards it in July so that “investments can start being made immediately”.
With gigafactories, ports and carbon capture all listed as potential spots for investment over the course of this parliament, the Budget is likely to be a chance for the nation to hear more details about this policy.
Recap on all of the news and debate from party conference 2024 by LabourList here.
Capital gains tax
This is where predicting the future becomes deeply uncertain.
Senior Labour figures insisted throughout the campaign period that no rises in income tax, National Insurance or VAT (barring private schools) would be coming, but effectively left the door ajar for the party to play around with other taxes if the need arose.
Capital gains tax has been one of the most cited areas of potential tinkering around the tax landscape that wouldn’t technically break Labour’s pledge – even though Rachel Reeves said the party had “no plans” to raise it during the campaign.
But plans can be malleable, especially in the face of a worse-than-expected fiscal “black hole”. This will be one to watch.
Fuel and alcohol duty
Fuel and alcohol duty have been targets for tax freezes by previous Chancellors, often intent to bring a modicum of good news to otherwise stern and steely Budgets.
But in the face of Labour’s self-imposed tax restrictions, could Rachel Reeves be tempted to review it to raise much-needed cash?
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