Keir Starmer’s government is in one hell of a fix – it’s stuck with a hideous political paradox that suggests this week’s big growth announcements won’t be enough to fix the polls or guarantee the 2029 election.
Setting to one side how long things like a third runway take to deliver, the vicious circle goes a bit like this: No fast and tangible economic growth that benefits both public sector investment and people’s pockets equals no second term; No slowing of immigration and no stopping of the boats equals no second term; No immigrants to build new buildings and start new start-ups equals no growth. And back we go round again.
It could also be described as the Labour party’s impossible political trade off. You can’t have growth without immigration because (1) we appear to have stopped having babies, (2) even if we did start to have babies in sufficient number it will take them way too long to grow up and get construction jobs or train on coding to be useful and (3) this country has a farcical inability to actually train people in these disciplines even if we had the demand for the training.
In construction alone we have had a woeful track record of recruiting and training the skilled workers to match existing demand for manpower, let alone the demand that would be fuelled by an economic boom.
If Reeves et al want growth – they need migration
So there we have it. If Reeves et al want growth, they need migration. And that is exactly what we’re projected to get: lots and lots of migration.
In among the many news items about Rachel Reeve’s plans for growth yesterday was a story that was much easier to understand for a casual viewer than the complex economics of growth, GDP and tax and spend, Britain’s population is due to grow by more than 5m by 2032 to a whacking great 72.5m.
READ MORE: Labour party manifesto immigration policies – at a glance
I can guarantee that that is a number that will already be appearing right now in angry focus groups up and down the country. What won’t be coming up will be an explanation of the complex relationship between growth and jobs and/or the ability to invest in public services.
Many in the Labour movement will not unreasonably argue that the job therefore of the government must be to break out of this paradoxical trap and prosecute the case for immigration.
The British electorate must be helped to understand that everyone benefits from welcoming, legally, new workers into our workforce. The NHS need this influx, our building sites do too, as do our start-ups.
Public opinion on immigration is very confused
Ministers, the argument will go, must drop the damaging commitments to bring down net migration and reduce reliance on overseas workers and change the way they talk about immigration too.
This strategy could just work, but for the fact that public opinion on immigration is very confused and possibly permanently so.
If you run focus groups, as I do, you would know that most people believe that most immigration is illegal (it isn’t). Indeed, a very large proportion of people believe that most immigrants arrives on small boats from Calais (they don’t).
READ MORE: ‘Too often activists want to sidestep immigration’
The idea that most migration is legal – and economically essentially – gets completely lost in the debate.
And so this is where Starmer is left. Not only does his government have an economic imperative to persuade voters to accept that vast, and tangible, net migration increases are worth accepting in pursuit of intangible growth targets, to even win the right to have that conversation, he needs to stop the boats coming (the season for which is now fast approaching)
Accelerating growth in such a way that its benefits are felt by normal voters before 2029 would be a tough ask, but changing the narrative on immigration and stopping the small boats at the same time, is probably even harder. Especially when voters really don’t want to listen.
Nobody said that that governing wouldn’t be hard for the incoming Labour administration, but this is really tough stuff.
Read more on Rachel Reeves’ growth plans:
For more from LabourList, subscribe to our daily newsletter roundup of all things Labour – and follow us on Bluesky, WhatsApp, Threads, X or Facebook .
- SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected].
- SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning.
- DONATE: If you value our work, please chip in a few pounds a week and become one of our supporters, helping sustain and expand our coverage.
- PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or projects, email [email protected].
- ADVERTISE: If your organisation would like to advertise or run sponsored pieces on LabourList‘s daily newsletter or website, contact our exclusive ad partners Total Politics at [email protected].
Value our free and unique service?
LabourList has more readers than ever before – but we need your support. Our dedicated coverage of Labour’s policies and personalities, internal debates, selections and elections relies on donations from our readers.
