James Cleverly has become the fourth candidate to be eliminated from the Conservative leadership contest. The results are as follows:
Kemi Badenoch – 42 (up 12)
James Cleverly – 37 (down 2)
Robert Jenrick – 41 (up 10)
This means that both Jenrick and Badenoch will now go to the members vote, the result of which will be announced, at this point, on November 2nd.
Both last two leadership candidates will be live in debate on GB News on October 17
Cleverly may not understand what has happened. The commentators don’t right now. His team won’t.
It will be fascinating to find out. How you go from joint third to first with such a post Conference surge, and 24 hours later be out will be analysis for the Conservative historians for years.
‘Likeability’, which almost everyone in Westminster knows Cleverly has in spades, was never going to be enough in itself. It’s a not criteria in our top three of members priorities from the ConservativeHome survey.
Some don’t rate him, others say his experience which was extensive, is not littered with triumphs. The China hawks had been particularly critical, which was compounded by his role in negotiations on the Chagos Islands, even though no deal was done. The real problem may have been that too many saw him as too much “continuity” and not enough “tackle the reasons we just lost an election”
He may also have suffered with MPs that until after that election he hadn’t really shown obvious enthusiasm for the role.
Jenrick and Badenoch would be brave not to have him by their side if they win.
Whatever they decide he has a track record of backing loyally whoever the party picks to lead, a trait he’d have played back to the party if he’d won. It wasn’t to be – in what is an unexpected result.
Where his personal support goes next could be vital.
Meanwhile there will be a huge media hunt to dig out how this result happened and we at ConHome will do our best to explain it, but the reality is this battle moves away from Parliament now and the contest now goes out to members.
