Luke Graham was the Conservative Member of Parliament for Ochil and Perthshire South from 2017 to 2019, the candidate in Perth and Kinross-shire in 2024, and a former head of the Downing Street Union Unit.
Scottish politics has, for the best part of a decade, been significantly different from the rest of the UK, with the SNP in control and the fight for the Union dominating the narrative. Parties in Scotland became almost accustomed to SNP pushing separation and the Conservatives (and Labour (sort of)) standing up for the Union.
The general election earlier this year dramatically changed the electoral map and now, for the first time in over a decade, Conservatives north and south are faced with the same enemies, and same opportunities.
In Scotland, Labour and the SNP are within a few points of other, both vying to form the next devolved administration in Edinburgh. The SNP’s appalling record in government has rapidly and consistently turned middle Scotland against them.
Even in pre-2000 SNP heartlands the SNP vote is hovering in the mid-thirties, and with the ridiculously long-running Operation Branchform, the fraud investigation into the Nationalists’ finances, due to report soon, this could fall further.
In the meantime, Labour’s first months in power have not endeared the party to voters. Many who put their faith in Labour are wondering whether tax rises, the cutting of the winter fuel allowance and the victimisation of farmers were quite the change people were looking for.
In England, Labour’s approach to business taxation, giving in to unions and targeting of rural communities is already seeing Conservatives winning a stream of local by-elections and creeping ahead in the polls. The Liberal Democrats seem quite content to hold their newly-regained third party status by merely appearing nice but dim, and are certainly not yet using their electoral heft to provide meaningful opposition or offer radical solutions.
But these movements are not just party political. The shift is also in policy – and at the devolved level, Scottish Labour follows the SNP’s lead in social and economic policy, including gender reform and the hate crime legislation, issues which risk opening up the very fault lines we saw exposed in the American presidential election.
Meanwhile, Labour in Westminster’s UK-wide policy making is hitting workers and pensioners north and south.
The wildcard is, of course, Reform, which denied the Conservatives so many seats north and south. Reform’s surprisingly strong showing in local elections in Scotland, and the public’s general disillusionment with both Labour and the Tories, mean that Reform remains a potent threat in all parts of Britain. Again, Trump’s victory adds more oxygen to these arguments.
As we know, and the British Attitudinal Survey regularly reminds us, there are very few differences between the priorities and feelings of most people across the UK. So, instead of emphasising the difference of geography, the Conservatives can embrace the universality of principles and values – with potential programmes of government that will work locally at devolved levels and nationally.
And thankfully, since Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems are jostling to occupy the same left-of-centre electoral ground, Conservatives have a real opportunity to cut through as HM Official Opposition far more credibly than Nigel Farage and Reform.
As with any electoral setback, there are also opportunities. Kemi Badenoch’s leadership will see a return to principle-led Conservative politics, with personal freedom and responsibility, equality under the law and free markets front and centre.
This principles-based approach, combined with Russell Findlay’s “Common sense” take in the Scottish Parliament, means that for the first time in years Conservatives have the opportunity to craft a message that works in all parts of the UK.
Conservatives MPs, MSPs, MSs and councillors, working together, can leverage their combined reach to find common solutions to common problems, escalating issues through the local devolved and national legislatures. Making use of Common Frameworks in various policy areas and amplifying the Conservative message could work well during a period of opposition.
If Tory leaders across Britain can clearly place the Conservatives in a new (and currently vacant) centre-right space, they can provide a vision and programme that can appeal across the UK – and be seen as Scottish, English, Welsh, Northern Irish and, most importantly, British too.
